Forum Topic

The Party's Over

People vote Labour for several reasons. One is tribalism, as in 'My family have always been Labour'. It is difficult for such individuals to to change their allegiance as voting for another party would seem like a betrayal of their family or community. Another is self-interest. Workers in the public sector, for example, are more likely to vote Labour since this is the party committed to state rather than private enterprise. So why would they vote for any other party? But there is also a class of people, to which I suspect several of the contributors to Putney Forum belong, who vote Labour because of what they would call a social conscience. They believe that Labour is the party most likely to help the disadvantaged.  Their party allegiance is  part of who they are. Voting Conservative would be tantamount to going over to the dark side. Some individuals, of course, are motivated by all three considerations at once.What these groups have in common is that they are on the whole impervious to rational argument. When presented with evidence contrary to their beliefs they employ various strategies. One is silence. So far example, there has been comparatively little discussion on the thread  about the Budget, which has dominated the News over the past two days.  Another tactic is to blame the Conservatives for everything that has gone wrong since Labour came to power, whether it's Brexit, or Boris Johnson or  Liz Truss (though, oddly, Rishi Sunak is never mentioned, perhaps because he actually got inflation down to 2% as opposed to its current level of 4%). A third strategy is to pretend that things are going in the right direction e.g. net migration is falling (mainly due to the last government's visa restrictions), even though 36 000 unauthorised migrants have crossed the Channel this year..The elephant in the room is the enormous level of debt which costs the government over £100 billion each year to service. This burden is simply unsustainable and will eventually bankrupt the country. Unfortunately Labour's decision, under pressure from its backbenchers, to adopt a tax and spend policy will only make the problem worse. Spending money you haven't got obviously increases indebtedness while increased taxation slows growth and reduces revenues. Tax and spend, which I suspect several contributors to the Forum support, was just about possible under Gordon Brown in 2000 when the ratio of public sector debt to GDP was 29%. But now under Rachel Reeves it stands at over 95%. The party's over but unfortunately the revellers won't go home.

Steven Rose ● 27d89 Comments

In reply to the latest lie, I should make it clear that I did not suggest that BBC licence fee  payers should make a billion dollar donation to Donald Trump. On the contrary, what I  suggested is that in order to avoid a possibly ruinous lawsuit in a Florida court where a jury might be favourable to Trump, the BBC should a) apologise b) ask Keir Starmer to persuade Trump to drop the case and c) if necessary make a small donation to a charity of Trump's choosing. The money for this should not come from licence fee payers but from the salaries of the two editors who doctored Trump's speech as well as Jonathan Munro, the global head of BBC News, who defended the 'Panorama' programme back in May, telling BBC Governors that editing the speech in this way is 'normal practice'.As to the two child benefit cap, it is difficult to get to the bottom of this issue as both the authors of the Centre for Social Justice report and Gareth Morgan (Henry Tapper) make a number of assumptions about the different benefits available to working and non-working families. It would be useful if 'Newsnight', say, invited both parties as well as as a (former} official responsible for paying benefits to discuss the issue. Or maybe 'Panorama' could do an in-depth analysis, that is provided they can turn their attention away from Trump and Israel.I think it is fair to say that1) families where both parents are on the national minimum wage do not earn significantly more and sometimes earn less than similar families on benefits (the so-called benefits trap)2) removing the two child cap will decrease the incentive and increase the disincentive to look for work3) the removal of the cap (which a year ago Labour said was unaffordable) will add £3 billion per year to government spending, increasing the burden on the taxpayer.As to the CSJ, I guess the reason that David Blunkett, a former Labour Home Secretary, has agreed to sit on its advisory council is that he agrees with their central tenet, which is that the best way of eradicating poverty is not through benefits but through paid employment. If that is 'right wing', so be it.

Steven Rose ● 20d

I am pretty sure no-one here has the inclination or the time to go through the nickels and dimes of the dodgy calculations; it's all a distraction from the basic question; should we as a community do our best to eradicate childhood poverty?I would quote from Henry Tapper's conclusion:'To generate the dramatic figures they use, they have found a way of avoiding the overall benefit cap by making someone severely disabled.  By doing so, they have not only done that but made the out of work income even higher and the comparison even more invidious.Otherwise, this family would have seen their benefit capped at £22,020 a year, £1,835 a month.This family, that they have used to compare with the financial resources of a healthy couple, can now be seen to have a member who is not merely severely disabled in need of care but also in receipt of the highest level of help with their mobility needs. They have three children and are paying rent of almost £1,000 a month.It doesn’t seem fair to leave the comparison at that.  What would the situation be if the working couple were in the same position? PIP, remember, is a benefit that can be received by working people; it’s not a benefit for people who can’t work.In a surprise, no doubt to the readers of the Telegraph, whose over 3.500 comments on this article are largely united in attacking the generosity of the benefits system, these hardworking people would also qualify for help from the benefits system, despite their earnings.Their situation, with three children, rent and disability support makes a very different comparison.In exactly the same circumstances, apart from having earnings, they will get help from the benefits system worth almost £2,700 a month or over £32,000 a year.  They benefit from work by over £16,000 a year so the £18,000 implied disincentive of in the article looks rather different.Are we going to see a new headline…“Working families £16k better off than benefit claimants after Budget”He finishes with this summary, 'The, much more than misleading, figures given in the ‘research’ and enlarged in the article are a sad indictment of a political assault masquerading as accurate reporting.No doubt, it will have achieved its aim as the message that the benefits system is too generous and workers are punished will be repeated, again by those who believe what they are told and the perpetrators go unchallenged, in the main.Perhaps, this piece will enlighten a few of those.I would finish by saying Steve was urging the BBC to get on the first plane to Washington to give the Donald a cheque of between 1 and 5 billion dollars of our money. Needless to say, any penny pinching he tries to justify in order to deny children the very basics, should be seen in this light.Pay the powerful, deny those in need! Great stuff, indeed.

Gerry Boyce ● 20d

I have read the article by Gareth Morgan. It is not accurate to say that he rebuts the figures given in the CSJ report. Actually he confirms that a three child family taking advantage of all available benefits (including child allowance, housing allowance and PIP payments) would  receive £46 402.68 per year, which is as close as makes no difference to the figure of £47 000 quoted by the CSJ report. He does not dispute that you would need to earn over £70 000 before tax to get this amount. What he does say is that normally benefits would be capped at £22 000 per year. However the cap does not apply if you are signed off as unfit to work. At present there are 2.8 million working age people who are economically inactive due to long term sickness.Where Gareth Morgan does take issue with the CJS report is the comparison with a three child family where the parents are in work on the national minimum wage. He doesn’t really disagree with the salary of £28 000 per year  by the CSJ, if you include pension contributions, though his figure is £32 000. But he argues that the comparison is not fair because the working family would also be entitled to benefits. As I understand it, while disability payments would not be affected, it is difficult to obtain Universal Credit and housing allowance when you earn around £30 000 per year. So I am not sure why he includes these payments in his calculation  aimed at showing that a working family would have a combined income of £62 971.57 consisting of their earnings of £30.753.39:and benefits of  around £32 000.But let us assume for the sake of argument that Gareth Morgan’s figures are correct. A family living on benefits gets £47k. A working family gets £61k. So the difference between working and not working is £15k. That is not much of an incentive to look for a job. And if his analysis is not correct, there is a positive disincentive.

Steven Rose ● 21d

@JonathanOmg Jonathan not another one banging the Brexit-is-bad drum.🙄  However I would concede that the Brexit exit deal that Boris negotiated was not good, but at least it finally got us out of the EU after all the Parliamentary wrangling that went on and on, including *Burko’s Remainer-biased interference.  The biggest Brexit bonus is the freedom to enter into worldwide trading without restrictions.  New trade deals signed:* European Union: The EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement was signed in December 2020 and entered into force in May 2021.* Australia: A free trade agreement was signed in December 2021.* New Zealand: A free trade agreement was signed in February 2022 and came into force in May 2023.* Singapore: A Digital Economy Agreement was signed in February 2022 and came into force in June 2022.* CPTPP: The UK signed the Protocol of Accession to join the CPTPP in July 2023.* India: A free trade agreement was signed in July 2025. Ongoing negotiations and other agreements:* The UK is continuing to negotiate updated or new trade agreements with various countries, including the Gulf Cooperation Council, South Korea, Switzerland, and Turkey.* An Economic Prosperity Deal with the United States was agreed upon in May 2025, although negotiations are ongoing for a comprehensive trade deal.* A Digital Trade Agreement with Ukraine came into force in September 2024. Let’s also not forget how much money in EU fees the U.K. has saved by Brexitting:The Financial Breakdown:Before Brexit, the UK made substantial contributions to the EU budget but also received money back (through grants, agricultural subsidies, and the UK rebate). * Final Pre-Brexit Net Contribution: In the last full financial year before the end of the transition period, 2019, the UK's net contribution to the EU budget (after the rebate and public sector receipts) was about £9.4 billion. Including grants paid directly to UK organizations (like universities for research), the figure was closer to £7.9 billion.*not a typo

Sue Hammond ● 24d