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Net Migration = Immigration - Emigration.That formula seems very straightforward, doesn’t it?    It should be IF the figures are accurate to begin with.  However it seems that the numbers involved are a moveable feast depending on where/how the information is collected and collated. For example:The number of British nationals who left the UK last year has risen from 77,000 to 257,000, according to revised immigration statistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This significant increase is due to the ONS adopting a new methodology for calculating migration, which uses data from public authorities like the Department for Work and Pensions instead of relying solely on surveys. During the same period, the number of British nationals returning to the UK was revised from 60,000 to 143,000. * Revised figure: The number of British nationals emigrating from the UK in the year ending December 2024 was revised to 257,000, a substantial increase from the previous estimate of 77,000.* Revised returnees: The number of British nationals returning to the UK was also revised to 143,000, up from 60,000.* New methodology: The ONS changed its method to use administrative data, such as that from the Department for Work and Pensions, which is considered more comprehensive than the previous method that relied on the International Passenger Survey.* Net migration: The net migration of British nationals was revised to a deficit of -114,000 for the year ending December 2024, compared to a previous estimate of a deficit of 17,000. Précis ~ Who The Flip knows?🤷🏻‍♀️P.S. According to LBC this morning, 111,000 people who have emigrated in the last year were in 18-30 age range.  Good for them I say because Labour has already decimated their chances of being successful in the U.K. and there’s 3 or 4 more years of its incompetence ahead.😩

Sue Hammond ● 26d

Net migration falls due to rising emigration.Net migration has fallen to its lowest level in four years. Figures released this morning show that 204,000 more people arrived in the UK than left in the 12 months to June – a drop of more than two-thirds compared with the year before.The real story, though, is that inward migration remains close to record highs. Some 898,000 people arrived in the UK over the year, but the net figure dropped because an unusually large 693,000 people left, with the rate particularly high amongst young people. The Office for National Statistics described this as part of a ‘gradual increase in levels of emigration’. Fewer non-EU nationals came to the UK to work or study too.Additionally, there was bad news for the government in the latest asylum statistics, also released today. The Home Office reported that in the year to September a record 110,000 people claimed asylum, with more than 36,000 accommodated in hotels. That’s a tad higher than the 109,142 recorded in the year to June. According to the Home Office: ‘Half of asylum seekers arrived through illegal routes, such as small boats or clandestine method.Politically, the Conservatives are keen to claim credit for the sharp fall in net migration, arguing that the measures they introduced in their dying months – including tighter visa rules and restrictions on dependants – are now feeding through into the numbers. Labour, meanwhile, will welcome the headline drop but should tread carefully, since the reduction is largely the product of high levels of emigration.Today’s figures do allow ministers to point to a dramatic fall in net migration, but the underlying picture is far less clear-cut. It is the slow but steady growth in people leaving the UK that has pushed the net figure down. The government can claim progress, but it is not yet evidence of a sustained fall in migration.

Sue Hammond ● 27d