“Your criticism that the Rwanda scheme would only have asylum to 200 migrants omits to mention that its purpose was to serve as a deterrent”I took it as implied. My point was that in the context of tens of thousands of migrants coming over on small boats, a maximum of 200 over a four year period through the Rwanda scheme was never going to provide a sufficient deterrent. The plan would never have delivered ‘a good chance of being deported’.It remains to be seen if the ‘one in, one out’ scheme can be more effective. To do so it would have to deport considerably more than 200 and in shorter order. Having passed the initial legal hurdles, there is one less barrier to its expansion. It can significantly expanded beyond what Rwanda could ever have achieved because unlike the previous proposal, it will actually reduce cost to the Treasury because the ‘one in’ will have pre-approved asylum status and will not automatically need to be supported by the tax payer.The assumption that being deported to Rwanda would be a greater deterrent that being deported to France is based on the false premise that the asylum seeker would have stayed in Africa. They almost certainly wouldn’t “The argument that the problem has been exacerbated by Brexit is fanciful, not to say disingenuous, France refused to take back illegal migrants even when Britain was part of the EU.”The argument that the problem has been exacerbated by Brexit is based on the explosion of small boat crossings after we formally left the EU and the Dublin agreement.• 2018: 299 people• 2019: 1,843 people• 2020: 8,466 people• 2021: 28,526 people• 2022: 45,774 people• 2023: 29,437 people• 2024: 36,816 peoplePrior to 2020, the French did not take back all small boat arrivals but they did accept much higher proportion under the Dublin agreement. This appears to have been sufficient to reduce the number of attempted crossings and these deportations exceeded the maximum that Rwanda was ever going to achieve. At the same time the ending of Freedom of Movement created significant labour shortages in sectors such as hospitality, construction, delivery, health care and agriculture as many of these jobs were filled by young Europeans from countries where unemployment was high. A proportion of these vacancies are now being filled by irregular arrivals. The evidence that Brexit is the most significant factor in the explosion of small boat arrivals appears to be overwhelming but, if you can provide alternative reasons, it would be interesting to hear them.“The argument that the government has caused illegal migration by reducing legal immigration is somewhat perverse.”No it isn’t. It is basic economics. Given a constant demand for labour in the UK, reducing legal immigration will inevitably attract more people arriving irregularly to work in the black economy. Nobody is saying the government shouldn’t be trying to reduce this but it does provide an explanation for the recent increase. A recognition that this is largely a demand led problem (i.e. people are crossing because they know they can get work) has been made with the acceptance that digital IDs need to be implemented.“Those who cross the Channel from a safe country like France are simply breaking the law”They are not. It is perfectly legal under international treaties to which we have been signatories for over a century to enter a country by any means if you are seeking asylum even if you depart from a safe country.
Peter Higgins ● 1d