Forum Topic

REFORM ON ITS WAY !!

The first of many wins. I am listening to LBC's election special coverage and the swing to Reform from Labour is incredible ...

Sue Hammond ● 60d94 Comments

I've always been uncomfortable with Net Migration as a measure.Only some emigration is related to immigration. I.e returning students, those on short term visas etc. By making Net migration the head line measure, it encourages UK governments to ignore the number of people leaving the UK.The reasons why people, often highly skilled, are leaving the UK needs to be understood and addressed. Far too little attention is paid to this because the more people leave the better the Net migration numbers.

Ed Robinson ● 51d

I listened to Cooper having an epiphany moment when she was speaking, bristling with zeal, to Lewis Goodall on LBC this morning, and I was practically shouting at the radio!  Basically Labour has finally had to accept that Nigel Farage is not so called 'far right'...he has just been speaking the truth about the perils of uncontrolled immigration for 20 years, and now a vast number of working people agree with him.  This announcement today is a panic reaction by Labour because it realises they could lose the next GE to Reform.  Listening to Cooper's robotic monologue (wind her up and on and on and on she goes🙄) you would think she/Labour had just been mad aware of the problem of uncontrolled immigration; but never fear, Labour knows what to do!  However she seemed to have conveniently forgotten that it was Saint Blair who opened the UK's door to uncontrolled immigration in the first place. Guess what?  Labour are going to put a limit on net migration, but Cooper wouldn't say what the number would be.  She came out with the latest Party excuse > 'we are not going to have a running commentary on this' which is now Starmer & Stooges stock reply when they don't  want to answer a question.Labour is due to publish a White Paper tomorrow, prompted no doubt by the rise of Reform.  Starmer is running scared.Her interview in full can be heard here:'No return to free movement': Yvette Cooper doubles down on her refusal to back EU youth mobility schemehttps://www.lbc.co.uk/politics/uk-politics/yvette-cooper-eu-mobility-scheme-refusal

Sue Hammond ● 51d

Mr Ixer' I'll be impressed when we do a decent trade deal with the EU, our nearest market, incorporating financial services'.I doubt the EU bureaucrats and the bankers in Frankfurt and Paris are at all keen to allow us to deploy our financial services skills in their back yard.

John Hawkes ● 51d

Mr Rose'The problem that Nigel Farage has is that in this secular age many well meaning people associate virtue with left wing ideals and evil with being right wing. So according to this moral calculus private enterprise is wrong, while taxing the rich is good. Pride in your own culture is racist while overlooking the faults in other cultures is a sign of being broad minded. Patriotism is considered xenophobic while supporting Britain's rivals and even its enemies is being internationalist. As a result many people, some of whom contribute to the Forum, refuse to consider Reform's policies seriously. Their sense of self worth is too bound up with disliking Nigel Farage and all he stands for'. Summed up beautifully !

John Hawkes ● 51d

Mr Rose'The opposition to Reform is not really based on disagreements about policy. It is based on dislike of Nigel Farage, perceived as right wing, racist and responsible for Brexit'.Perceived is the operative word here.I would challenge anyone on this Forum to give a definition of 'right wing' other than I assume it stands for having opinions that are at the other end of the political spectrum to 'left wing' - which is also in my view a meaningless term.I do not understand why Farage is acused of being racist.He is just reflecting a large and growing national concern over the rise in immigration and the effect it can have on our society.I note in today's BBC News interview that all of a sudden the Labour Home Secretary Yvette Cooper also feels concern over this issue and promises to 'cut the numbers'.She is even going as far as to say that low paid jobs many immigrants take on could, heaven forbid, be carried out by the many British citizens who are receiving some sort of unemployment or disability payment.Perhaps the easiest way to reduce immigration is to drastically reduce these payments and force many now receiving them onto the jobs market.And ignore their 'Mental health issues' unless backed up by complete confirming diagnosis by NHS specialists and not just on the say so of a GP who just wants to quickly clear his/her waiting room.As regards Brexit, to be crude and blunt, does anyone really care a toss especially if Starmer gets a good tariff deal from Trump.

John Hawkes ● 51d

💯Robert!

Sue Hammond ● 51d

@Steven Rose 10.35Spot on!  Unfortunately some contributors on here are afflicted by a serious superiority complex ...

Sue Hammond ● 51d

The US deal seems more of a damage limitation exercise with more discussions come later.  I'll be impressed when we do a decent trade deal with the EU, our nearest market, incorporating financial services and we're back in Erasmus and have a decent arrangement for touring musicians, etc. I'm sure the Indian trade deal will be great for Tata and Infosys, etc 

Michael Ixer ● 51d

The problem that Nigel Farage has is that in this secular age many well meaning people associate virtue with left wing ideals and evil with being right wing. So according to this moral calculus private enterprise is wrong, while taxing the rich is good. Pride in your own culture is racist while overlooking the faults in other cultures is a sign of being broad minded. Patriotism is considered xenophobic while supporting Britain's rivals and even its enemies is being internationalist. As a result many people, some of whom contribute to the Forum, refuse to consider Reform's policies seriously. Their sense of self worth is too bound up with disliking Nigel Farage and all he stands for.

Steven Rose ● 51d

How can people distrust Farage but not Starmer on Brexit?The big concern is that there have been no lesson learnt about Brexit. No reform to increase democracy when it comes to matters of sovereignty.

Ed Robinson ● 51d

But Michael Starmer has just given the UK the best Brexit benefit with the two trade deals with India and the US.  These could not have been done while we were in the EU and now there is no way back as unpicking the detail would take years.Farage like Boris has a PR problem - always the way with a politician who actually answers journalists questions and doesn’t give flip flop answers.

Robert Wheeler ● 51d

Correction, Steven; not dislike, but distrust after Brexit with no benefits.

Michael Ixer ● 51d

Your challenge, John, to opponents of Reform to say which of its policies they disagree with in unlikely to get a response. The opposition to Reform is not really based on disagreements about policy. It is based on dislike of Nigel Farage, perceived as right wing, racist and responsible for Brexit.

Steven Rose ● 51d

Just a poll but the anger against the established parties should not be underestimated.Just one poll but a very large lead."Reform takes record 10-point lead over Labour – boosting Farage’s PM hopes"https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/other/reform-takes-record-10-point-lead-over-labour-making-pm-farage-more-likely/ar-AA1EtMX0

Ed Robinson ● 52d

Mr Hawkes,It is a Mail+ article so it requires subscription. It may be available via other sources in a few days.

Ed Robinson ● 52d

"NIGEL FARAGE: Our victory was seismic and the Reform era is just starting. Here's everything my government would do - from ditching Net Zero to finally tackling immigration"https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14696587/NIGEL-FARAGE-victory-Reform-era-government-Net-Zero-immigration.htmlNot that of the Third Reich but a list of aspirations many might support.I would be interested in which ones certain posters disagree with.

John Hawkes ● 52d

Last year's figures below.High compared with 2019 but lower than 2023.I've no idea if they are audited or the quality. There are some monthly figures out but with the lag and October start, I suspect we will not get a full picture until next year.https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-december-2024/summary-of-latest-statistics#why-do-people-come-to-the-uk-study3. Why do people come to the UK? StudyKey statistics:there were 393,000 sponsored study visas granted to foreign students in 2024, 14% fewer than 2023, but 46% higher compared to 2019. In 2024, visas issued to dependants of students fell by 85% to 22,000 compared to 2023, but were 37% higher compared to 2019over two-thirds (65%) of student visas in the latest 4 years were for masters level courses

Ed Robinson ● 52d

Hello Sue,"* Stop student visas allowing dependents to come with them"I thought international student dependents had already been significantly reduced....  They have not been stopped altogether but it is not an automatic right at the moment.

Ivonne Holliday ● 53d

Mr Ixer'I wonder if people are erroneously equating intelligence with education? Just because one hasn't gained a degree doesn't mean one isn't intelligent'.Good points.'Intelligence' is surely a natural attribute, which can certainly be nurtured, but which not all have at least to the same degree."Intelligence has been defined in many ways: the capacity for abstraction, logic, understanding, self-awareness, learning, emotional knowledge, reasoning, planning, creativity, critical thinking, and problem-solving. It can be described as the ability to perceive or infer information and to retain it as knowledge to be applied to adaptive behaviors within an environment or context". Wikipedia.Education is surely the process whereby knowledge, facts and opinions are transmitted to be accepted or questioned to a degree dependent upon ones intelligence.I have no doubt that Reform voters collectively are just as intelligent as those voting Labour whatever their level of education.And that comparison holds true against the now vast number of university educated graduates.

John Hawkes ● 53d

Reform will not have a 'Manifesto' because it says that word has a negative meaning due to the amount of times manifesto promises have been broken by the elected governments.  Instead, Reform has published 'Our Contract With You' which can be googled if you wish to read the document in full.  However the 5 key pledges are copied below.Reform has 22 policy areas in its 'Our Contract with You' document on its website covering all areas of public life, but it narrows down to five key pledges to attract voters.These are cutting immigration, ending the boat crossings, ending NHS waiting lists, cutting taxes on working people and affordable energy bills.To cut immigration, they have pledged:* To freeze non-essential immigration* To deport and withdraw citizenship from all foreign nationals who have committed serious crimes* Stop student visas allowing dependents to come with them* Require five years of residency and employment to claim benefits* Increase national insurance on foreign nationals working in non-critical industries* To process all asylum seekers from a "safe country" rapidly and offshore "if necessary" without providing them with legal aidOn cutting taxes for working people, they have pledged to increase the personal allowance from £12,570 to £20,000. They have also pledged to move the threshold for the higher rate from £50,271 to £70,000.They also say they will use more private healthcare to support the NHS and give tax relief to people who use private health insurance. Reform says this will cost £17bn.The party has said most of the cost of their pledges will be paid for by the new taxes on foreign workers and massive cuts to government spending.

Sue Hammond ● 53d

Mr Rose'It makes more sense to concentrate on  Reform's policies'.I have to admit I am not fully clear as to what these are in detail.But that is also true regarding the Labour Party.I believe Reform gathered the votes it did from people who are concerned firstly by what they believe is a change being affected in and pressure put upon British society by immigration.And also what appears to be an undue concentration even after the Judicial Ruling on 'trans rights' whose underlying  precepts they find peculiar.And finally the concerted pressure by the Labour Party and the 'progressive' left to push for DEI to override many employment and social decisions is also seen as prejudicial to those that happen to see themselves as being from the 'traditional' British white working class.

John Hawkes ● 53d

Mr Brigo'If nothing else it's quite amusing how worked up everyone seems to have gotten!'Playing your usual role of the weedy boy at the back of the school playground mob shouting "Fight, fight" !

John Hawkes ● 53d

Ms CarterMr Brigo posted that 'it doesnt change the fact that you are more likely to vote for Reform if you are uneducated'.1) If this is not patronising and condescending I do not know what is.2) This obviously implies that educational qualification is a determinant of how one would vote.3) I assume Mr Brigo would not vote Reform so it is valid to ask a) how he did vote and b) what educational qualifications he has acquired.4) Perhaps he or you might answer "are those that vote Labour more educated than the rest of the population ?

John Hawkes ● 53d

"It wasn't a clumsy comment Jane, he's too intelligent to use that as an excuse.  MB's post was considered and attempted to convey that Reform voters were not as intelligent as other voters"Thank you for the intelligent point ;)It would seem you don't like facts? Had enough of experts have we?If nothing else it's quite amusing how worked up everyone seems to have gotten!As for Farage becoming PM, we will see - I'm a firm believer in democracy so if he wins then so be it :)

Michael Brigo ● 53d

I doubt that John Curtice wished to cast a slur on Reform voters. He has always struck me as objective in his assessment of of the parties. He was simply stating facts according to research. But I suspect that Michael Brigo quoted these figures in order to disparage Reform. I don't think there is anything to be gained by profiling Reform voters or speculating about their motives. It makes more sense to concentrate on  Reform's policies.

Steven Rose ● 54d

@Jane 16.01It wasn't a clumsy comment Jane, he's too intelligent to use that as an excuse.  MB's post was considered and attempted to convey that Reform voters were not as intelligent as other voters, he even changed the thread title to emphasise his point:On 6/5 @ 21.36MB changed the title of the thread to: The uneducated get REFORM ON ITS WAY !!and posted: "Meanwhile, support for the Reform averaged 43% in wards where more than half of adults have few, if any, educational qualifications. In contrast, it polled just 19% where more than two in five have a degree."There nothing ambiguous about Michael Brigo's posts.  It is clear that he doesn't like Farage and is contemptuous of him and REFORM supporters, which is fine.  It must really pi$$ him off that Farage is heavily tipped to be our next PM, which is finer still ! 😸Reform's phenomenal rise in the polls and its incredible success last week must be hacking off so many on this forum.  What a shame.  I feel for you.😹

Sue Hammond ● 54d

He is also missing the point that many very clever and bright individuals simply cannot afford to go to University. Many have to be at work to contribute to the family. Doesnt make them thick, it does though make them hard working.Is Curtice really saying that those with a degree in many if the Mickey mouse subjects are brighter than yjiss who went to work out of necessity? I doubt it.

Andy Pike ● 54d

Mr BrigoYou said 'fact that you are more likely to vote for Reform if you are uneducated.'Just wanted to check you were well enough educated to vote for anyone other than Reform.

John Hawkes ● 54d

I can’t see that Michael B posted any snide  or patronising comment about you or anyone else. He simply quoted Curtice’s findings. He didn’t ask for your educational qualifications and his are, as he says, none of John Hawkes’ business. His use of the term ‘uneducated’ in the title of his post is a bit clumsy but hardly justifies the OTT reactions on this thread.

Jane Carter ● 54d

@MBIf you post a snide or patronising comment about people you know nothing about, me included, don't be surprised if somebody questions you about it.

Sue Hammond ● 54d

I didn't answer because frankly it's none of your business and is irrelevant to the subject.I can comment on a subject no matter what my qualifications are in the same way that people are allowed to vote no matter what their qualifications are.

Michael Brigo ● 54d

Mr Brigo(Or should it be Dr Brigo; Mr Brigo MSc/MA/BSC/BA/BTEC/A-level/O-level/GCSE/11+)Any chance of a reply ?Posted by: John HawkesDate/Time: 07/05/25 12:14:00Mr Brigo'"Meanwhile, support for the Reform averaged 43% in wards where more than half of adults have few, if any, educational qualifications. In contrast, it polled just 19% where more than two in five have a degree."What educational qualifications do you have ?Major ones I would have thought from your patronising comment.Perhaps from Mr Ixer's alma mater ?

John Hawkes ● 54d

Apologies for my editing:I suspect many of the Reform voters would have voted in previous elections for either or both main parties i.e. not first time voters.

Ed Robinson ● 54d

I suspect many of the Reform voters would have previously voted in previous elections for either or both i.e. not first time voters.Reform has shown there is really no reason why a new party can not be set up on a relatively small but get/membership costs.For me the success of Reform posses more questions to the existing parties on their policies and administration.Green party membership is £60 for example and none of the other parties had any policies for the High Street.I believe they have grown content in their own worlds with even those thrown out of Labour hoping to get back in one day rather than setting up their own left party."England had a higher percentage of people who indicated their highest level of qualification was Level 4 or above (33.9%, 15.6 million), compared with Wales (31.5%, 807,000). Conversely, Wales had a higher proportion of people indicating no qualifications (19.9%, 510,000) than England (18.1%, 8.3 million)."

Ed Robinson ● 54d

Sue, what a question! If I knew the answer I'd consider coming out of retirement to make a fortune. I'd say the only true poll is the election. I don't think any prediction can be 100 % accurate as people can change their mind in the polling booth or even fail to go out and vote on the day, whatever their previous intention. I suppose AI might be able to use larger samples and in the future refine its own algorithm to become more accurate - but it's still going to be an estimate based on statistical sampling. There is possibly the psychological aspect; if people are talking to a machine they might be inclined to be more truthful, whereas they might be reticent in certain circumstances admitting to another human who they're voting for - which is reportedly why some predictions have been way off the mark, mind you that might just be an excuse by polling organisations who got their sampling wrong! At the end of the day, AI is only going to be as good as the data it consumes but perhaps it might get good at spotting bad data?

Michael Ixer ● 54d

I haven't really had time to read this thread properly but I wonder if people are erroneously equating intelligence with education? Just because one hasn't gained a degree doesn't mean one isn't intelligent; there may be a number of circumstances why people take different educational paths or cut short studying. (Interesting that the person I know who had aspirations to be a Reform candidate at the last election is a graduate of the Royal College of Science/Imperial College.) However, I suspect one's opinions and voting preferences are based on experiences which will likely be different for those going into tertiary education. None of my cousins went to university, although one became a successful accountant in the motor industry, but as one is often reminding me when he's quoting Nigel Farage, coming from a largish family they had a harder time in childhood than I did as an only child but they all did well in their own jobs, and we can find points of interest to discuss and disagree on others. 

Michael Ixer ● 54d

P.S. to Michael IxerDo you think AI could be used in the future to make 💯 accurate election predictions?  That could be a very stupid question because I admit I do not  understand the enormous scope of AI ...

Sue Hammond ● 54d

@MB 21.42But they aren't factual are they?  Without knowing the educational achievements, (or lack of) for every Reform voter, Curtice's statement was an unsubstantiated slur.  I left school at 15 1/2 before taking any exams and I voted for Reform in last year's GE and will do so again at the next one.  I am not unique and there are probably millions like me who will do the same.  Are we all thick?  I grew up through decades of stark social divide when the 'working class' traditionally voted Labour and the 'rich posh people' voted Conservative, but the lines are now very blurred and those stereotypes as no longer reliable yardsticks.  My own family were typical working class as defined by their jobs and I 💯 know they all voted for Labour. You might imagine that because of our very close relationship and possibly by their influence, I would have also voted Labour, but I never have.  So up yours Prof! 😸Professor Curtice may be very good at predicting election results by using all the analytical data available at the press of a few buttons, but his own considered opinions and statements regarding who/how people voted are old fashioned and way off the mark now.  In my opinion.

Sue Hammond ● 54d

Rather than concentrating on the educational profile of people who vote for Reform, it would make more sense (and cause less offence) to evaluate Reform’s policies.

Steven Rose ● 54d

"The region with the lowest proportion of people with Level 4 or above qualifications was the North East (28.6%, 622,000), whereas the region with the highest proportion of people with no qualifications was the West Midlands (21.1%, 1.0 million)."Reform was 5th in the General Election for West Midlands. 4th for the Mayor election.3rd in the North East general Election and 2nd on Northumberland County Council elections.https://electionresults.parliament.uk/general-elections/6/countries/2/english-regions/2

Ed Robinson ● 54d

I didnt remove the geography, I just grabbed a paragraph and reposted it word for word.How you choose to interpret it is up to you, it may well be that left behind Britain profited less from globalisation but it doesnt change the fact that you are more likely to vote for Reform if you are uneducated.Facts are facts.

Michael Brigo ● 54d

I think MB is selectively quoting and misinterpreting the point as made clear by the summary given. (Quote below).I would indeed call it a slur because he has removed the geography which is relevant to analysis.I think this is a real issue the UK has when in comes to respecting democracy. Most of the people that fought in WWII for the UK were not very well educated either!"In summary, Reform did best in what has sometimes been characterised in the wake of the Brexit referendum as 'left-behind' Britain – places that have profited less from globalisation and university expansion and where a more conservative outlook on immigration is more common."

Ed Robinson ● 54d

I don't actually see where in the paragraph I posted he was slurring working class people.He just pointed out that less educated people tended to vote Reform. That seems to be a fact rather than a slur?

Michael Brigo ● 54d

@ MB 10.30 Thankyou for that info and the fact that it was reported by the British Biased Corporation makes no difference to my opinion on Prof Curtice.  It was rather unkind of him to slur his working class parents with his sweeping statement about intellectual ability but he would probably mitigate that by glibly saying they wouldn't vote for Reform even if you put a gun to their head; too dramatic obviously but I am sure YKWIM.  There is no doubt that Curtice has carved out a very lucrative career with his media interviews and television appearances, so well done to him. It is true that Curtice has been very successful at predicting (aka *informed guessing) the results of the General Election results 2005, 2010, 2015, 2017 and again last July, although to be honest most people with even a moderate interest in politics would have got that one right too.  So how does Curtice make his predictions?  He works with a team of analysts and they have a huge amount of predictive polling data, and on election night, exit polling data, to work with. So unless there has been a catastrophic balls-up with the data collection or the computers all implode on the night, it is highly likely the methodology used will come up with the right result.  In my opinion. Polling:Predictive polling on all kinds of national issues goes on continuously mainly by Ipsos, and its political polling is hugely ramped up during an election year. The fieldwork (i.e. interviews with voters, etc.) for the exit polls is carried out by major polling companies.  All the collected data is inputted and updated constantly.  The analysis and predictions made are the work of a small team of academic researchers, headed by Professor Curtice and David Heard with whom he developed the methodology for the exit poll estimation which used in the general election coverage.On the election day itself, the emphasis is on finding good statistical models for the exit-poll data. For this to be successful, especially in the very limited time available, the ideal team combines high-level skills and experience in both statistics and political science. At the 2001, 2005 and 2010 elections the analysis team included: John Curtice C (University of Strathclyde, Dept of Government), David Firth & (University of Warwick, Dept of Statistics), Steve Fisher C (University of Oxford, Dept of Sociology), Jouni Kuha [ (LSE, Dept of Statistics), Clive Payne C (Nuffield College Oxford) and Neil Shephard (Harvard University) (I cannot find the list for 2017 and 2024 but I assume it is probably the same people.)

Sue Hammond ● 55d

In a secret ballot how does Curtis know each voters background, salary, religion, nationality.True he can make assumptions based on the overall population of an area but when only 30 or 40% vote how dies he know who they are? Statistics, statistics and damn lies.

Andy Pike ● 55d

I don’t doubt that the figures given by Sir John Curtice, who is the country’s leading psephologist, are correct. But the fact that educated people are less likely to vote for Reform does not necessarily mean that Reform’s policies are wrong. A university degree is no guarantee of political acumen. Except for Angela Rayner, who has an NVQ (Level 2) in social care, and Jonathan Reynolds, who pretended to be a solicitor but hasn’t passed the exams, the present Labour cabinet are all university educated. Yet in ten months of government, what have  they managed to achieve? Growth has been slowed by the misguided decision to increase employers’ NI .contributions. More migrants than ever are crossing the Channel illegally in small boats and are being housed in hotels at public expense. Farmers are being forced to sell their farms because of the changes in inheritance tax. The parents of children with special needs in independent schools are being double taxed. Struggling pensioners are losing winter fuel allowance. Electricity bills are the highest in Europe because of the government’s obsession with net zero. The Chagos Islands are being given to Mauritius without consulting the Chagos islanders..

Steven Rose ● 55d

'Or they are convinced by populists that they have their best interests at heart when in fact those populists are beholden to big business and all they care about is corporate profits'.Mr Brigo1) What is your definition of a populist ?2) Why are they beholden to 'big business' ?

John Hawkes ● 55d

Mr Brigo'"Meanwhile, support for the Reform averaged 43% in wards where more than half of adults have few, if any, educational qualifications. In contrast, it polled just 19% where more than two in five have a degree."What educational qualifications do you have ?Major ones I would have thought from your patronising comment.Perhaps from Mr Ixer's alma mater ?

John Hawkes ● 55d

from this article, which you will immediately dismiss because it's published on the BBC - but the article was WRITTEN by John Curtis, not the BBC.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yg467m8mjoPlease don't just go 'oh well the BBC is biased so i wont read it' - it's so depressing.

Michael Brigo ● 55d

@MBPlease supply the source of this ridiculous quote.  Which article did you copy it from?  Thankyou

Sue Hammond ● 55d

It was an analysis of the election written by Sir John Curtis who is regarded as pretty much the leading poll analysis person in the country?And yes it was a direct quote.And no, it's not a ridiculous statement.

Michael Brigo ● 55d

Educated middle class people can afford luxury beliefs such as the idea that immigration is good for the country and they  look down on  working class Reform voters, for whom immigration is an important issue, as the dupes of populist politicians and the right wing press. If  you own your  own home in a leafy suburb  where the schools are good and where you can get  a doctor’s or a dentist’s appointment, you will have a different perspective from someone struggling to pay the rent in a depressed seaside town where doctor’s surgeries are filled with recent immigrants who are being put up in hotels at public expense.

Steven Rose ● 55d

@MBWhat is the source of that ridiculous statement?  As you have used quotation marks I assume it is an actual quote, or did you just make it up?

Sue Hammond ● 55d

"maybe they vote for Reform because they don't believe that the mainstream parties have their best interests at heart."Or they are convinced by populists that they have their best interests at heart when in fact those populists are beholden to big business and all they care about is corporate profits.Tragic really that people fall for it hook line and sinker.

Michael Brigo ● 55d

That is a rather snobbish post. People without educational qualifications have a right to vote. And maybe they vote for Reform because they don't believe that the mainstream parties have their best interests at heart.

Steven Rose ● 55d

"Meanwhile, support for the Reform averaged 43% in wards where more than half of adults have few, if any, educational qualifications. In contrast, it polled just 19% where more than two in five have a degree."

Michael Brigo ● 55d

sickening

Clifford Cowell ● 56d

Mr Robinson'Another country where the West interferes. Imran Khan was deemed too close to Russia so the US asked for his government to be removed according to leaked US cables.So the West got the government it wants in Pakistan and now people are complaining about it'!BBC News -'Visa applications from nationalities thought most likely to overstay and claim asylum in the UK could be restricted under a new government crackdown.Under Home Office plans, first reported in the Times, people from countries such as Pakistan, Nigeria and Sri Lanka may find it more difficult to come to the UK to work and study.Ministers believe there is a particular problem with those who come to the UK legally on work or study visas and then lodge a claim for asylum - which if granted, would allow them to stay in the country permanently.A Home Office spokesperson said: "Our upcoming Immigration White Paper will set out a comprehensive plan to restore order to our broken immigration system.""When you have someone who comes here ostensibly as a student and then switches quickly to the asylum route... that is an abuse of the system - the government is trying to reduce that."Latest Home Office figures show that more than 108,000 people claimed asylum in the UK last year - the highest level since records began in 1979.In total, 10,542 Pakistani nationals claimed asylum - the most of any nationality. Some 2,862 Sri Lankan nationals and 2,841 Nigerian nationals claimed asylum in the same period'.I ask again - "Can you explain what is so awful in Pakistan that so many Pakistanis want to come here and seek asylum".A question also pertinent to Nigeria and Sri Lanka.What persecution do they suffer from ?Is the Government repressive and corrupt ?How come they have the permission and means to travel here to study ?Why do citizens of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, seek asylum here and not say in other Arab Islamic states ?Why do we offer asylum at all ?We are a soft touch and amongst those that arrive here some are from Iran with plans to attack British Jewish people and institutions.Yet as an island we should have some of the most impenetratable borders !

John Hawkes ● 56d

"Farage stated in his victory speech that there will be no more WFH policies in the 10 Councils where they have full control"And yet Reform are advertising jobs that are based at home lol.What's good enough for the goose isnt good enough for the gander?

Michael Brigo ● 56d

@Mr Hawkes 12.28REFORM have already started to make changes in local Govt, auditors are being sent in to Durham Council, and Lee Anderson has just posted this: "Reform controlled English councils will move at speed to resolve that the *only* flags permitted to be flown on or in its buildings will be the Union Jack and the St George’s flag."Farage stated in his victory speech that there will be no more WFH policies in the 10 Councils where they have full control.  These are just the beginnings of change.

Sue Hammond ● 57d

Mr Robinson'Of course there are going to be more asylum cases and bad apples will be allowed in because they are useful for foreign policy'.I am afraid this does not make sense to me and I doubt the majority of Pakistani asylum seekers are fleeing political persecution.'Layer on top of that - a lack of transparency, generous housing, benefits, a black economy, political correctness, corruption'.I agree with you here.We are mugs for our attitude towards and response to all that you list regarding illegal immigrants.However a more powerful Reform presence in national and local government might cause this to change.

John Hawkes ● 57d

Mr Robinson'We bomb and destabilise so many one can forgive you for forgetting about Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen to mention a few. Plus various coups including against the Iran government because we wanted their oil'.You seem to be a fully paid up member of 'Britain deserves everything it gets because of the way it has treated ...(LIST NUMEROUS ISLAMOFACIST THEOCRATIC DICTATORSHIPS THAT HAVE SPREAD DEATH AND DESTRUCTION ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST INTO THE WESTERN WORLD WHICH IN TURN HAS RESPONDED)'.If we have treated these countries so badly in the past, why  do so many of their citizens today want to leave them and come here now that they have the power to determine their own destiny ?Because they are still ISLAMOFACIST THEOCRATIC DICTATORSHIPS.And even today (though I note the Guardian does not report it) - 'The SAS swooped on Iran-backed terror cell': Special Forces troops joined police on UK streets to arrest suspects 'who were HOURS away from major terror attack on UK synagogue'To my mind victim shaming and a lack of patriotism ooze from your comments.Do you think the Jews deserve such attention from Arab terrorists because of how they respond to being attacked by such from Palestine ?George Orwell would have recognised your type -"“In intention, at any rate, the English intelligentsia are Europeanized. 
They take their cookery from Paris and their opinions from Moscow. In the 
general patriotism of the country they form a sort of island of dissident 
thought. England is perhaps the only great country whose intellectuals 
are ashamed of their own nationality. In left-wing circles it is always 
felt that there is something slightly disgraceful in being an Englishman 
and that it is a duty to snigger at every English institution, from horse 
racing to suet puddings. It is a strange fact, but it is unquestionably 
true that almost any English intellectual would feel more ashamed of 
standing to attention during ‘God save the King’ than of stealing from a 
poor box. All through the critical years many left-wingers were chipping 
away at English morale, trying to spread an outlook that was sometimes squashily pacifist, sometimes violently pro-Russian, (TODAY PRO ARAB) but always 
anti-British.”― George Orwell, England Your EnglandYou seem determined to keep up the tradition Orwell despised.Stay indoors next Thursday I suggest.

John Hawkes ● 57d

"Can you explain what is so awful in Pakistan that so many Pakistanis want to come here and seek asylum"Another country where the West interferes. Imran Khan was deemed too close to Russia so the US asked for his government to be removed according to leaked US cables.So the West got the government it wants in Pakistan and now people are complaining about it!You can't have it both ways, interfering in other countries and then complaining about consequences. Of course there are going to be more asylum cases and bad apples will be allowed in because they are useful for foreign policy.Layer on top of that - a lack of transparency, generous housing, benefits, a black economy, political correctness, corruption.But probably the most important thing is the UK class system. The higher class you are the less impact these things have. In fact they become benefits. An Afghan doctor may get your coffee made to order for a couple of quid. Goods delivery to your door as if you are a VIP. They will not be competing for housing and probably not even using the same schools.

Ed Robinson ● 57d

@ Mr Hawkes 13.02Sadly the U.K. has become the dustbin of the world, mainly as a result of the EU's open borders.  The U.K. was never part of the Schengen Agreement but nothing was done to stem the invasion across Europe, and then into Britain.  Mad Merkel greatly exacerbated the situation with her everybody welcome open borders policy, and Tony Blair actively encouraged uncontrolled immigration into this country which flooded the workforce with cheap foreign labour and depressed wages. This hugely benefitted large businesses and corporations but it put a lot of small companies and many sole traders out of business. Since the last census, statics show that 10 million migrants have come to the U.K., and they are the ones that are documented.  The relatively small number who came here legally and have benefitted our country economically are welcome, but they are vastly outnumbered by those who are an economic drain.  However what is infinitely more worrying is how many who intend to do us harm are in our midst and planning terror attacks, as per today's news?

Sue Hammond ● 57d

Mr Hawkes,The last war with Afghanistan lasted twenty years. I think we will differ in our view of "Global War on Terror", which actually increased the risks of terrorism  with some extremists being funded/armed by the West."Don't think we bombed the other countries from where illegal immigrants came from."We bomb and destabilise so many one can forgive you for forgetting about Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen to mention a few. Plus various coups including against the Iran government because we wanted their oil.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_the_United_Kingdomhttps://www.declassifieduk.org/britains-42-coups-since-1945/

Ed Robinson ● 58d

Mr Robinson'As for my views on immigration I can't understand the stupidity of bombing and destroying countries and not expecting some of the refugees to end up here'. "Five nationalities together accounted for more than half the total number of migrants who were detected entering the UK illegally in 2024". BBC NewsAfghan nationals were the most common group, making up 15% (6,339) of the 43,630 migrants who arrived in the country through illegal routes last year, Home Office figures show.The next most common nationalities were Iranian (5,370 or 12%), Syrian (4,945 or 11%), Eritrean (3,920 or 9%) and Vietnamese (3,798 or 9%).Some 1,457 of arrivals last year (3%) had no nationality recorded.The top two nationalities in 2024, Afghan and Iranian, were also the most common in 2023, accounting for 17% and 14% of total arrivals in that year respectively.The proportion of arrivals who were Vietnamese rose from 4% in 2023 to 9% in 2024, while the proportion from Syria increased from 7% to 11%.linked'.Yes, we did join the Americans in fighting al Qaida and the Taliban in Afghanistan because of their attack on the US at the Twin Towers in 2021.Not unprovoked, not imperialistic but a natural defensive response under the circumstances.Don't think we bombed the other countries from where illegal immigrants came from.In previous years a majority of illegal immigrants came from Albania.What is so bad about that country that so many seek asylum here ?Though of course they can contribute to the economy through their haircutting, car washing and cannabis growing skills.In the year to December 2024, the largest number of asylum seekers came from Pakistan, with more than 10,500 applications.That is the same Pakistan that is trying to deport Indians from Kashmir.Can you explain what is so awful in Pakistan that so many Pakistanis want to come here and seek asylum ?As for Vietnam, why do we have to accommodate their citizens ?I thought post-war Vietnam had a very thriving economy, so much so Trump wants to place tariffs on its exports And can we not train up our own nail-bar staff ?And finally why are we accepting asylum seekers from the Islamofascist states of Iran and Syria ?I read today -"Eight arrested in two separate anti-terror operations"'Eight men, including seven Iranian nationals, have been arrested in two separate counter-terrorism police investigations.Five were arrested at various locations around England on Saturday as part of a "pre-planned" investigation into a plot to "target a specific premises", the Metropolitan Police said.Four - two aged 29, one aged 40 and one aged 46 - are Iranian nationals. Police said the nationality and age of the fifth was still being established.Three other men, all Iranian, were arrested in London on Saturday as part of a separate investigation led by the Met's Counter Terrorism Command. Police said the two operations were not connected'.So we are still under threat from Islamic terrorists.Why does the Labour government not do more to keep these undesirables that only wish to harm us out of the country ?And those that are here, why are they not deported ?We Brits are seemingly mugs and our elected protectors feeble.We take in and succour any old riff-raff that we have no responsibility for.Still at least next Thursday we can relish the fact that there was a time when our forbears were resolute and brave enough to keep out alien aggressors.

John Hawkes ● 58d

Mr Hawkes. I think the common theme would be a distrust of Farage, they've never forgiven him for Brexit and the mythical benefits he promised. I guess Green and LibDem policies more closely align with their views - climate change mitigation, human rights, the NHS under public control ... spending so much time with Trump also makes many suspicious of Reform's true motives as Farage is the prime driver of the party. But let's be honest, looking at the turnout figures, many people just decided not to vote so extrapolating to a GE is difficult. (Yes, not a very scientific analysis but based on an overall perception from comments people have made.)

Michael Ixer ● 58d

"Doubtless you take a more liberal attitude towards immigration into this country than do many others."Not really the point I was making Mr Hawkes. If Reform appeal solely on immigration then their potential support will be limited. If they can offer other things then their immigration policy is more likely to be overlooked by those that take a different view. In the same way that may Labour votes overlook the party's foreign policy.As for my views on immigration I can't understand the stupidity of bombing and destroying countries and not expecting some of the refugees to end up here. The two are linked.I do not agree with the pro war right wingers who moan about refugees nor do I agree with the left 'squid games' advocates that will quite happily kill people if the are not on UK soil and then give them 4 stay hotels and private health care once they arrive.As for legal immigration which of course there will always be some but it is often used just to lower wages or boost the economy to pay for people stuck on benefits. As highlighted previously it's very hard to retrain and reskill those that have not worked and for employers to take a chance when there is an abundance of foreign labour. The number of prosecutions for minimum wages breeches tells you all you want to know.I think EU workers were treated shamefully by all the parties during Brexit. They just didn't care.The Rwanda deal was working and again the logic of spending billions on a US nuclear deterrent is fine but not on the Rwanda deal escapes me.So no I do not have a "liberal attitude" towart immigration at all.

Ed Robinson ● 59d

Lots of 'shock, horror' and pearl clutching by sensitive lefties on finding out how well Reform did in recent elections.But no comment in the mass media over the fact that -  "Suspended Labour candidate wins in Lancashire"'Some real characters being elected today. Remember Azhar Ali? He was dropped as Labour’s candidate in the Rochdale by-election last year after he was recorded claiming that Israel ‘allowed’ the 7 October massacre, and making dark insinuations about ‘Jewish quarters’ of the media…Well, Mr Ali (these days an independent) has just been re-elected by the clement people of Lancashire in the ward of Nelson East. He was voted in, too, with a very healthy majority of 874. Result!And then there’s Maheen Kamran. She’s an 18-year-old aspiring medical student who has just been elected by the good men and women of Burnley Central East with a majority of 268 votes.Who is she? Well, Kamran ran on the interesting platform of wanting the end of ‘free mixing’ in public spaces…‘Muslim women,’ she explained to PoliticsHome, ‘aren’t really comfortable with being involved with Muslim men. I’m sure we can have segregated areas, segregated gyms, where Muslim women don’t have to sacrifice their health.’(Would hope to avoid her in A&E) !https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/suspended-labour-candidate-wins-in-lancashire/In some parts of the country are we moving away from 'Party politics' towards tribal and ethnic politics that some immigrants have brought with them from Pakistan ?

John Hawkes ● 59d

Mr Robinson'Putting aside Reforms immigration stance their other policies in the General Election were quite impressive'."Record number of migrants cross Channel in 2025 so far": BBC News.Doubtless you take a more liberal attitude towards immigration into this country than do many others.Including those who have chosen to vote Reform in the recent elections and for whom immigration and the changes it causes to the country's social fabric and culture seem pretty important.

John Hawkes ● 59d

Mr Ixer'the Labour voters I know who are dissatisfied with the current government would never vote for Reform'.Why is that ?What Reform policies are an anathema to them ?

John Hawkes ● 59d

Ms Hammond'Ellie Reeves, Chair of the Labour Party'.Ah, Labour does believe in family businesses !

John Hawkes ● 59d

Mr Rose'That is because, Robert, none of the Labour Cabinet has any experience in running a business or even working in a business (with the exception of Rachel from Accounts)'.To this list you could add Fleur Anderson, Putney's Labour MP. 'Anderson began her career in development and environmental and poverty campaigns, both in London and abroad. She co-founded Wandsworth Welcomes Refugees and was the Head of Community Services for the Katherine Low Settlement, a community centre in Battersea from 2016 to 2020'.The Labour Party is now  one for those with a higher education qualification who work in non-manual jobs; politics, local government, 'activism', 'human rights', social work et al.The idea of wealth creation is an anathema to them.It's all about distribution of wealth created by others.🎼🎵🎶 "The working class can kiss my arse and can pay my wage at last".Reform voters have now twigged this.

John Hawkes ● 59d

Putting aside Reforms immigration stance their other policies in the General Election were quite impressive.I'm not sure who did Reform's manifesto, but many of the policies were very sensible and it left the question of why the other parties did not have sensible policies?If they build on their last manifesto and take in some Labour/Conservative carpetbaggers it will be very hard for the main parties to attack them as extreme. After all many would have been their candidates.Logically there is no difference disagreeing with Reforms immigration policy and voting Reform and disagreeing with Labour's pro war policy and voting Labour. Especially when Labour supporters urge people to vote for the lesser of two evils. That may very well be Reform.With the Greens, who got my vote last time more into themselves than the electorate let's hope an good independent stans in Putney next time.

Ed Robinson ● 59d

Martine,  fair comment, because that's the demographic I normally mix with, although some are Scottish, fromWigan, Newcastle ...

Michael Ixer ● 59d

Michael, who are the Labour voters that you know, dissatisfied with the current government, who would never vote Reform?  My guess is that they are middle class Labour voters, probably from London.  Any of them working class from the North or Midlands?

Martine Guy ● 59d

It's interesting to look at the balance of changes in councillors by parties:Reform +662
Conservatives -662
LibDem +161
Greens +45
Labour -183
Independents -20I'm sure there's not a 1-1 transfer of votes from Conservatives to Reform but the Labour voters I know who are dissatisfied with the current government would never vote for Reform but many would happily vote for LibDems or Greens. However, come another GE they'll likely revert to Labour if there's the risk of splitting that vote ...

Michael Ixer ● 59d

Hello Martine,I really do not have an anwer to your question.  What is certainly definite is that the Conservatives have lost an enormous amount of councillors. From the BBC website, after 20 of 23 Councils declaring, Reform has gained 635 seats, the LibDems have gained 158 seats, the Conservatives have lost 633 seats, Labour has lost 180 seats and the Greens have gained 43.Although Farage has said it is the end of the two-party system, I would not count my chickens with local elections or mid-term elections.  Reform and the LibDems have done rather well. The proof is in general elections - we have a long way to go still.Will things improve or deteriorate?  Who knows.  Sadly, I think the quality of our politicians at the moment is dire - and I make no exception.

Ivonne Holliday ● 59d

I wonder what the future is for the Labour and Conservatives parties? How can they, in particular Labour, criticise Reform now,  as this means they will be going against their former voters.  I think both Labour & the Conservatives are in a difficult position.

Martine Guy ● 59d

Andy and Jonathan, thanks for reply, good job I didn’t bet on this for money!  I was a child when I was taken by my dad.  Didn’t go more than a handful of times. Jonathan, we love to watch Morris dancing.  All that hankie waving, such fun!

Martine Guy ● 59d

Ellie Reeves, Chair of the Labour Party, was on LBC this morning speaking to Nick Ferrari and trotted out the new Labour buzzwords "further and faster" several times in a discussion that lasted approx 15 minutes, and it will now be spouted by Starmer and his stooges at every available opportunity.  Similar to the previous buzzwords '22 billion pounds black hole' and  'we have to take tough decisions' etc etc ...

Sue Hammond ● 60d

Looks fairly clear Reform have taken votes from Conservative (-322 seats) & Labour (-125).I think you can write off the Greens - a small improvement but considering the amount of money pumped into the climate lobby there has been no real movement. I think they are quite content living in the identity politics space.With the main parties ever more distant from the lives of ordinary people, I guess Reform will be looking to fill the void that now exists.No doubt we we begin to see a number of carpet baggers jumping ship from Lab/Con to Reform over the next few years.

Ed Robinson ● 60d

Martine, I’ve been in several, all in Newcastle when visiting my cousin who studied up there. She and her then boyfriend, now husband of over 50 years, took me on a tour of them when he was in a Morris dancing team. Never had so much fun (or free alcohol!).  I was 16 at the time. I’ve been to one in Bolton too, with another cousin.

Jonathan Callaway ● 60d

MartineI was a life member of the Hammersmith Working mens club ( Kent house) as was my dad and his brothers until about 20 years ago, then moved to the wimbledon WMC until my move to Brighton, unfortunately like many across the country the Brighton WMC has recently gone bust.

Andy Pike ● 60d

That is because, Robert, none of the Labour Cabinet has any experience in running a business or even working in a business (with the exception of Rachel from Accounts):Keir Starmer, barrister, then DPPAngela Rayner, shop stewardDavid Lammy, lawyerYvette Cooper, policy adviser, then journalistBridget Phillipson, women’s refuge  managerRachel Reeves, economist and  customer complaints supervisorWes Streeting, local councillorEd Miliband, policy adviserJonathan Reynolds, political assistantLiz Kendall, policy adviserShabana Mahmoud, barrister.

Steven Rose ● 60d

"Labour leader and Prime Minster Keir Starmer tells the BBC the results have so far been "disappointing", but he believes his government needs to go "further and faster" to see the change he hopes to bring about".Apart from cutting the WFA for the elderly; reducing benefits for certain disability groups; planning a £25 billion hike in National Insurance contributions for employers which is seen to have hit growth, businesses and to be leading to job losses; giving pay rises to public sector workers without any guarantees regarding improved output and productivity; what is the change he hopes to bring about ?Oh of course, he did put up the cost of non-state education.

John Hawkes ● 60d

Just think in the Working Men’s Clubs of Durham, they will have been cheering on Reform and not Labour.  (Bet I’m the only person on here who has been in a Working Men’s Club, by the way). My view is that Labour and the Conservatives care a bit too much what the London middle class think of them and have forgotten about their traditional voters outside London.  

Martine Guy ● 60d

Agreed Martine.  Labour, Conservatives and Liberals are not listening to the majority.  Stop the boats, stop public sector pay rises we cannot afford, stop hitting farmers with IHT and stop taxing businesses with NI increases.Starmer and his crew are all about dogma and not real life business experience.

Robert Wheeler ● 60d

I thought the most painful loss for the Labour Party was Durham Council. Whatever way you look at it, it’s all bad news for the Conservatives and Labour.  

Martine Guy ● 60d

Interesting. Labour did hold onto three mayors, my guess is most reform gains come from Tories with some Labour but most Labour losses going to LibDems and Greens - which I suspected might happen. Still, could change as results come in.

Michael Ixer ● 60d

No fan of Farage but could not believe Starmers reaction. Ie we are listening and people are telling us to go ahead faster with change.He has therefore ignored the result and will stick with Rachel from accounts and mad Millie.So he's learnt nowt.

Andy Pike ● 60d

"This is the beginning of the end for Starmer - the suit so generously purchased for him by Lord Alli has been branded with the yellow stripe of betrayal".https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14671457/beginning-end-Starmer-Lord-Alli-DAN-HODGES.html'But Nigel Farage is now the true Leader of the Opposition. And Keir Starmer does not have the faintest idea how to confront Farage’s insurgent populism.His prevarication on trans rights. His liberal squeamishness on immigration. His myopic inability to grasp the fury generated by cuts to winter-fuel payments, pensions and disability benefits. If Reform’s leader could piece together an identikit Labour leader to run against, a former human-rights lawyer, Knight of the Realm resident of North London would represent the perfect fit.And these results are by no means the nadir for Sir Keir and his party. The Rachel Reeves tax bombshell is about to detonate'.

John Hawkes ● 60d

A devastating night for Totalitarianism and The New World Order..😁😄😊🥳

Michael Brown ● 60d

Momentous Win !!Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has secured victory by six votes over Labour in Runcorn and Helsby as Sir Keir Starmer failed his first by-election test as Prime Minister.The narrow victory for new MP Sarah Pochin saw Reform taking a constituency which Labour won with a majority of almost 14,700 less than 12 months ago.

Sue Hammond ● 60d