Some months before the American election Richard predicted that if Trump won he would abandon Ukraine. I argued against this at the time on the grounds that Trump, as a highly transactional politician, would not wish to hand Putin an advantage against Western interests without securing something in return. But evidently I got it wrong. My mistake was in supposing that Trump would regard the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine as important. It was perhaps an understandable error. After all, why would Trump argue that the European nations needed to increase their contribution to NATO, which is a defensive alliance primarily directed at Russia, if he didn’t see Russia as a threat to European security, particularly after the invasion of Ukraine? But it is becoming clear that Trump has no great interest in maintaining the Atlantic alliance. Apart from a sentimental attachment to Scotland and the Royal Family he has no particular regard for Europe. He is only interested in America and he doesn’t see Putin as a threat to American interests. So if he brokers a peace deal in which Russia gets to keep all the land it has conquered and receives an assurance that Ukraine will never join NATO, Trump won’t think he has been outsmarted by Putin. On the contrary, he will think he has achieved a great outcome, saving America billions of dollars in military aid, securing mineral rights to Ukraine and promoting himself as a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize by ending the bloodshed.
Steven Rose ● 407d