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With regard to (a) the majority scientific consensus, as Jonathan pointed out, is that climate change is down to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and that reduction in the use of fossil fuels, and changes in industrial and agricultural processes that produce them is the way to mitigate it. That may have to be augmented by carbon capture technology to reduce the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.As to your point (b), there is the Milankovitch cycle of around 100,000 years which I mentioned in a previous posting (is it worth me posting responses if you don't read them? Still. at least I could correct the error!), as follows:《Yes, the world's climate does go in cycles as the solar system's complex gravitational interactions move us closer then further from the Sun and the angle of its axis, etc changes. I'm sure as you're responding to this thread you're fully aware of Milankovitch cycles:http://www.climatedata.info/forcing/milankovitch-cycles/https://science.nasa.gov/science-research/earth-science/milankovitch-orbital-cycles-and-their-role-in-earths-climate/Figure 3 of this is interesting if you look at the way CO2 is now rising:https://royalsociety.org/news-resources/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/question-6/So, yes, there is a cyclical change in climate over a long period but if you look at current greenhouse gas emissions they appear to follow no previously known pattern and coincidentally begin on 1750 when the industrial revolution began - I don't think there's any evidence of a previous industrial revolution injecting these gases into the atmosphere? If anyone has it perhaps publish it? It's really worth looking at the graphs in this link to see the increases in greenhouse gases since 1750:https://www.epa.gov/climatechange-science/causes-climate-changeYes, the world will survive but perhaps the human race has run it's course and is due for extinction.》There are other blips from time to time, for example, from 1645 to 1715 when sunspot activity subsided and there was a mini ice age (known as the Maunder Minimum) but recent solar activity has kept fairly close to the norm of its 22 year cycle with a peak and minimum of solar activity every 11 years:https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_MinimumHence scientists have linked warming to the rise in CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the absence of any other obvious contributing factors. With regard to the Zedong quote, I'm not sure how one compares a complete uncertainty of the future following a revolution with one drawing on predictions from many scientific measurements by multiple organisations to model temperature changes in the future. Models do have errors but I seem to recall from one lecture I attended or article I read that some of the models were more optimistic than the actual average temperatures that have been measured. (It's a bit like comparing motor accident statistics from actual occurrences and seriousness compiled over 100 years or so with guestimates of the likelihood and impact of ransomware hacks.)With regard to (c) it doesn't keep me awake at night, I doubt I'll still be around when it gets really uncomfortable! But I tend not to worry about things I have no direct control over - whether it's climate change or nuclear war. If the human race becomes extinct it's all just part of the revolutionary cycle ... I can't speak for others. I didn't quite understand what you were getting at with the piece quoted from the IC report, perhaps I need to see the complete report; do you have the reference?

Michael Ixer ● 59d

This thread is straying off the point.The issue is not whether the climate is 'changing' but - a) what might be causing it if it is and what practical steps can we take to mitigate its negative effects. b) is it just an instance within a long, long cycle of such  changes stretching over millennia.c) is the doom mongering having a greater negative impact on our well being than climate change itself. Point a) is being investigated by Imperial College which published the following from its research.'To understand how heat has affected people across the UK, a nationally representative sample of 897 people was asked to share their experiences of heatwaves and very hot weather. The research found that human-induced climate change ****risks**** heaping pressure on a struggling NHS and undermining workforce productivity. ****FEAR INDUCMENT****. Over two thirds of respondents said they were concerned about rising temperatures ****WOULD THEY NOT BE WITH THE MEDIA ATTENTION GIVEN TO DOOM-LADEN CLAIMS REGARDING CLIMATE CHANGE****, with a fifth reporting having experienced heat-related health impacts in the past five years. People with existing medical conditions, such as mental health or heart conditions, were twice as likely to suffer ill health during heatwaves, while more than 40% of respondents said they struggle to work during episodes of very hot weather'. Would any Forum posters be willing to share medical conditions exacerbated by the 'heatwaves' we experienced last summer ?And did any excepting roofers, pothole repair people, fruit pickers and the like  (the 40% ?) really struggle to work in the heatwaves ?Those WFH or in an air conditioned shop or office surely  did not struggle ?Regarding b) one might consider Mao Zedong's response when purportedly asked in the '70s about the impact of the French Revolution and answered by saying 'it was too early to say'. And finally regarding c) are we not in danger from a cult-like group of climate change zealots, foretelling with a biblical earnestness of an apocalypse, of going over the top on this issue and bringing 'mental health problems' upon ourselves ?

John Hawkes ● 59d

Messes Hawkes & Rose. I think Mr Carter was just pointing out some statistics presented by Oxfam. I've not had time to scrutinise the data but I think it was 1% of the global population so that could possibly include a lot more that 1% of the UK's population?One wonders if the present very sad devastation in LA will cause a reflection by the very rich who live there about their lifestyles. (Having visited and travelled around California several times both on business and as a tourist I find the devastation in the LA/Hollywood area difficult to comprehend.)A problem is that the economy created by western capitalist system gives us many benefits and freedoms but, unless one drops out of society completely, locks one into a certain level of compliance. While fixing a number of acute risks (deaths from common diseases, starvation, lack of shelter, etc) for most living in that area it has created the long term chronic risk of environmental damage and climate change which up till now has been easy to ignore. (Although looking at increased homelessness, poor health from poor diet, etc in the US and UK one wonders in the system is failing?)We can bicker about what individuals are doing but that's not going to resolve the problem and solving it will be painful but not mitigating it (I doubt it can really be fixed now) will be even more painful as those in LA are finding, and some on the Eastern American coast & Carribean have found out recently more frequent hurricanes - plus we shouldn't forget what seem now to be regular flooding events in the UK.

Michael Ixer ● 62d

Richard, I tried to access the Oxfam paper but was unable to do so. However I find the notion that the richest 1% of people are personally responsible for 16% of global carbon emissions implausible. Emissions are due to residential and commercial heating, industry and transportation in roughly equal proportion, together with agriculture at a lower level. The idea that the richest 1%, which in this country equates to around 700 000 individuals,  are personally responsible for one sixth of this is impossible to believe. Just take residential heating.  Everyone in Britain heats their home (with the exception of pensioners who have lost their winter fuel allowance). Yet 1% of the population are supposed to consume 16% of the fuel. Is that possible. What about commercial heating? I dare say Selfridges has an enormous fuel bill. But is this all going to be attributed to the owners of the store rather than the thousands of shoppers who visit the premises? I suspect that the authors of the Oxfam report have made a number of tendentious assumptions.I think that as regards the super rich, the authors have gained their  information in reference to people living in the richest nations as opposed to poor countries in Africa and elsewhere. But this has (deliberately) been conflated with the top 1% in countries like ours in order to  promote an agenda of tax increases.Is this a sensible way forward? The top 1% of earners in this country pay 28% of all income tax. If they leave for more generous tax jurisdictions, who will fill the black hole in tax receipts to pay for public services? Most economists believe that any tax rate above 45% is counter-productive. People leave or simply don’t get out of bed to work.

Steven Rose ● 62d

'Excessive pay for CEOs and other members of Senior Management can also be found in the public sector eg university vice chancellors £325k pa, NHS Trust CEOs £300k pa, BBC Director General £527k etc. The argument is that unless you pay competitive salaries i.e. salaries matching what people earn in the private sector, you can’t attract the best people. I am not sure this is true'.You are absolutely right.Pay in parts of the public sector is often more of a scandal than high (excessive ?) pay in the private sector.Public sector jobs are generally 'for life' because, by the nature of the 'industry' sectors, its staff can only be set woolly performance targets.How do you measure how well the BBC performs when everyone is forced by law to pay for it irrespective of whether it delivers output you might find desirable ?The NHS budget increases automatically annually.Does its performance improve at the same rate ?How do its numerous 'managers' have their performance assessed and is their salary adjusted accordingly ?Are any of them at risk of dismissal because of how they perform ?And how do you assess the performance of a university vice-Chancellor ?The number of firsts the institution confers ?!And does TfL and Sir Mayor Khan's office need the dozens of 'execs' that earn c.£100K per annum ?Do the tubes and buses run better the more they get such a level of 'executive' supervision ?In most of the jobs above performance criteria is subjective and is assessed by the persons 'peers'.They are not going to rock the gravy train are they !With such performance not really able of measurement and with no 'hire and fire', these jobs are not on the face of it 'hard' and certainly not risky.Hence no innovation in how the NHS is run.Even Labour's Wes Streeting has spotted this.Let's see what quantitative targets he sets for its improvement and what he does if they are not met.In the private sector executive pay is ultimately defined and measured according to the benefit delivered to the owners of the business, namely the share holders and the return they get on their investment.Good management, creativity and enterprise are key.If they are not satisfied they will replace those in place and find better ones.That takes us back of course to Elon Musk and how he became so rich.Whether that gives him the right to pontificate on certain issues is another matter.But if others want to be able to do likewise and gain his level of renumeration, they had better start working harder in the private sector and be as enterprising and innovative as he is.

John Hawkes ● 66d