Forum Topic

"How bad is the UK economy Chancellor' ?

Hamish McRae - 'This is Money''Rachel Reeves says the UK’s fiscal position is so bad she will have to raise taxes in the Budget in October.But actually the country’s economic position is improving so swiftly that there will probably be no need to raise taxes at all.Reeves claimed an alleged £22 billion-a-year black hole in Government finances, and this indication of higher taxes to cover it.As far as the black hole is concerned, that £22 billion-a-year should be set against Government revenues estimated at £1,095billion in the last financial year and at £1,150billion this year. So even if you accept the Chancellor’s point, it is not huge in relative terms'.And if the Chancellor still maintains her view of the economic 'Black Hole' why is she digging it deeper by giving Public Sector workers (e.g train drivers) a pay rise for no commitments on their part to improve productivity ?Another indicator of an improving economy is that because inflation is falling there was the cut in interest rates announced by  the Bank of England.Also, there was the upgrade to the Bank’s forecast about economic growth this year, more than doubling it to 1.25 per cent.- 'Full Fact' 23 May 2024.'Figures measuring quarterly GDP growth show that during the first quarter of 2024, the UK saw the highest quarter-on-quarter growth in the G7 (a group of major economies made up of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US)'.So perhaps things are not so bad after all !How long can Labour keep blaming every economic and social ill on 'the Tories' ?!

John Hawkes ● 306d16 Comments

Mr Ainsworth'That sounds right'.I for one am not upset that childlike trolls 'contribute' to Forum threads.Often their 'humorous' posts are as revealing of themselves as were they to post what they really think.

John Hawkes ● 302d

That sounds right.

David Ainsworth ● 302d

Mr Ainsworth'I sent my reply at 11.23'Did you ?I am afraid I was expecting a thoughtful response not some feeble attempt at 'humour'.I always feel that you are adept at posing gaslighting questions but can never be bothered to answer serious ones posed to you.Of course it is possible you have no sensible answers to give.

John Hawkes ● 302d

I sent my reply at 11.23.

David Ainsworth ● 303d

Mr AinsworthHave you managed to define these terms yet ?See my query I posed you -19/08/24 16:02:00

John Hawkes ● 303d

Best not, I think. You would only blame Mr Carter.---------------------------------"Joe Biden has pulled out of the presidential race, saying it is "in the best interest of my party and the country". It comes after months of speculation about his age and fitness to serve another four years - amid a series of high-profile gaffes and a disastrous debate performance."

David Ainsworth ● 303d

Mr Ainsworth'Well, in the 2024 election, 46% of voters over 70 voted Conservative, and 15% of voters over 70 voted Reform. Total Right and Far Right voters = 61%'.What is your definition of 'Right' and particularly 'Far Right' in politics ?Can you define it for me in terms of principles, aims, objectives, actions recently carried out ?And is the Labour Party 'left' or 'far left' especially as it seems to have adopted many Conservative policies regarding the economy and immigration ?Again, how would you define these two terms as per 'right' and 'far right' above.

John Hawkes ● 304d

I think those figures are from a youGov poll.They always start pretending to be extra careful.When Labour last left office the national debt had doubled.The Conservatives have managed to double it again.What's the worst that can happen??

Ed Robinson ● 305d

"I can only assume this will be the first of many such actions targeting pensioners."Well, in the 2024 election, 46% of voters over 70 voted Conservative, and 15% of voters over 70 voted Reform. Total Right and Far Right voters = 61%.So you may be right.

David Ainsworth ● 305d

I take it back she is worse than Brown who kept to the previous governments spending limits even though the economy had improved significantly.It seems such a poor decision both politically and now it seems economically, as more claims for non-means tested benefits are made.She could have made it taxable for example and put VAT on sugary biscuits. There must be no end of options. I can only assume this will be the first of many such actions targeting pensioners.Or perhaps she simply was playing politics and thought the line would be swallowed and the pensioners were just unfortunate."Austerity is still austerity, even under a Labour government"https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/aug/18/austerity-is-still-austerity-even-under-a-labour-government

Ed Robinson ● 305d

'Last week’s release of key economic indicators were not exactly supportive of the government’s argument that it was handed a country in worse shape than at any time since 1945. That’s quite a claim when quarterly growth is running at 0.6%, the annual inflation rate is 2.2% and unemployment is 4.2%'.Larry Elliott, Guardian Economics Editor

John Hawkes ● 305d

Mr Ainsworth'"How long can Labour keep blaming every economic and social ill on 'the Tories' ?!"I know! I mean, nearly two months after winning the election, how can they?!'But there does not seem to be an inherited 'economic mess' as Labour claims according to many sources including the ones I quoted.So she should not make accusations of blame for a situation that does not exist in order to make cheap political points.If the economy was so bad how come she can find the money for public sector pay rises to be given with no requirement for working practice changes and greater productivity.The latter are what leads to a truly sound and growing economy.Her way leads to inflation - 'Basic Economics 101' - pay more for the same output.I assume Labour will take responsibility when it starts to implement its Autumn Budget.

John Hawkes ● 305d

The economy is growing- what we do not want is for the incoming government to stiffle it, which is what the Cameron government did.I think Hunt was a reasonable Chancellor given the circumstances. Obviously not long enough to repair damage done by his party and former self.It was going in the right direction and unless I missed anything it his budget was transparent.We are in the odd situation where no one knows really what Labour's policies are. It's not going to be an easy task but I suspect it will be harder if they can not be honest and transparent. It seems odd and perhaps a little stupid for the Chancellor to convey such mixed messaging on the state of the economy."The UK economy has now grown strongly for two quarters, following the weakness we saw in the second half of last year,” said Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics, which released the figures."https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq82y55jg35o.amp

Ed Robinson ● 306d

Reeves keeps banging on about a 22 billion 'black hole' in the economy but conveniently 'forgets' to acknowledge that 9.5 billion of it is down to Labour's great giveaway to public sector workers. I would say that nobody in the role of Chancellor could forget such a huge commitment so she is simply lying by omission.

Sue Hammond ● 306d

Talking down the economy can be a Self-fulfilling prophecy.The riots will have an impact but there will also be a knock effect of people cancelling events for fear of getting caught up in protests perhaps even fear of being jailed as a bystander.Fuel prices are again also likely to rise again sharply this year.This reminds me of the Brown days when you had to wait for the small print to find out what the actual policies were. It's been true of other governments since but Brown was the true master.

Ed Robinson ● 306d

"How long can Labour keep blaming every economic and social ill on 'the Tories' ?!"I know! I mean, nearly two months after winning the election, how can they?!

David Ainsworth ● 306d