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It is not just the ‘usual suspects’ who believe that the number of independent school pupils will fall. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has predicted that the introduction of VAT ‘would lead to a 3 to 7 % reduction in private school attendance ‘ in the medium to long term. I don’t think that the figures quoted by the ‘Guardian’ prove their prediction wrong. The imposition of any tax on a product or service inevitably reduces demand but not necessarily all at once. Some parents at the beginning of the academic year may have been hoping that government would change its mind or at least postpone introduction of the tax. Others may be reluctant to withdraw their children in the middle of the school year but will be forced to seek a place in the state system in the coming months.  It is simply too soon to assess the impact of a tax introduced two months ago even in the short term, let alone the medium or long term. If the prediction of the IFS is correct, anything from 15 000 to 35 000 additional children will enter the state system, requiring from 1000 to 2000 extra teachers.However my main complaint is that the tax is inherently unfair. I am sorry to repeat this point but I have not yet received a reply. Why should parents who already pay income tax to finance state education be taxed twice over because they don’t use the state system and have chosen to send their children to independent schools?  What possible justification can there be for double taxation?

Steven Rose ● 44d

As a general rule, the more you tax a product or a service, the more likely it is that there will be a drop in demand and supply. The IFS has predicted that the number of independent school pupils will fall by 3,7% as a result of the VAT charge. Even if schools and parents pay the increased costs in full, the tax is unjustifiable. If schools absorb the VAT charge without increasing fees, there will be less money for bursaries of the kind which Keir Starmer himself benefited from when he was a pupil at Reigate Grammar. If the cost is passed on to parents, the rich won’t suffer but families of modest means who make sacrifices to pay for their children’s education will undoubtedly face hardship. But rich or poor, why should parents who save the state money by educating their children privately be singled out for a special tax  to pay for additional teachers in state schools?But what if the IFS is right to say that the number of independent school pupils  will fall by 3.7% . That means that 20 000 children whose parents cannot afford the increase in fees will be  be forced to leave their friends behind and seek a place in a state school where they probably won’t know anyone, where the exam syllabuses may be different and where they may not find adequate support for any special educational needs they have. How can that be right?And how will the state sector cope with this influx? 20 000 extra children will require around 1200 extra teachers, which is a fifth of the 6000 teachers Bridget Phillipson says will be employed on the. basis of the VAT receipts. So 20% of the supposed financial returns will be lost from the outset.The VAT charge is a nasty and destructive initiative devised by individuals who think that socialism means ‘sticking it to the rich ’.

Steven Rose ● 46d

Mr CarterIt's always the same: some reform is hyped as the end of the world, only for its supposed effect to be minuscule. Remember the introduction of the minimum wage? It would destroy businesses wholesale and bring about the collapse of the world as we know it (and that's only a slight exaggeration) it was claimed, but now it's accepted as completely normal. And, inevitably, it's occurring over the government's suggested changes in employment law to stop vicious exploitation of employees, and the same apocalyptic warnings are being bleated by the usual suspects. Don't believe a word of it!'What examples of 'vicious exploitation of employees' can you quote ?The imposition of VAT on private schools, making the UK the only country in the world to place a sales tax on education,  is well recognised as simply a bone thrown to leftist, classist and envious Labour voters .Seems to have been received with jubilation by many on this Forum such as you no doubt !Perhaps the minimum wage did not destroy the economy but Chancellor Reeves herself is quoted as saying to the BBC -  "it's likely her tax-raising Budget may affect wage growth for workers, as businesses will have to absorb the costs of paying more National Insurance or give out smaller pay rises.Asked about the impact of increasing NI contributions for employers by 1.2% from April 2025, she says: "I said that it will have consequences"The government says it will raise £25bn from the measure - but the Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank claims it will raise just £16bn, because businesses will scale back wage rises'.However to the Labour Government's credit the Chancellor and  Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Liz Kendall are determined to cut down the UK's ever expanding welfare bill by axing £5billion from its budget as the government scrambles to balance the books.'Labour MPs have been warning of 'deep concern' over 'draconian' curbs with details expected to be announced as soon as tomorrow.Liz Kendall is set to declare that workers who lose their jobs should get more than long-term claimants. Check-ups on those who are getting sickness payments are also due to be bolstered'.Many long term claimants are citing 'mental health issues' as the reason they can't work.Almost impossible of course to verify or counter.So the Government seems to be enforcing novel schemes such as interviewing these people and giving them coaching on how to get a job.A reform in practice surely ?

John Hawkes ● 46d

On illegal migrants, it is not your job to come up with a viable alternative to the Rwanda scheme, but it is certainly Keir Starmer’s job, which he has signally failed to do. His plan to ‘smash the smuggling gangs’ is pie in the sky. The combined police forces of several European nations, including the UK, have failed to stop the traffickers up to now and there is no reason to believe they will succeed in future. Indeed a country like France has little incentive to stop migrants setting out to cross the Channel, since once they are in the water, they  are no longer France’s problem and become Britain’s problem.At the moment the smuggling gangs are able to tell their paying customers (who are not stupid) that once they reach Britain, there is little or no chance of their being removed even if their claims for asylum are rejected since countries like France will never agree to take them back. The only solution is to deter migrants from making the crossing by making it clear that those who enter Britain illegally will not be allowed to stay and will be removed to a (safe) third country. Unfortunately Labour (for whom anti-racism seems to have replaced socialism as their credo) consider any proposal to limit immigration as inherently racist. (Keir Starmer actually said this). As a result they are unwilling to tackle the problem of illegal migration seriously.My prediction is that the number of migrants attempting to cross the Channel in small boats will increase under Labour. Having no alternative, a Labour government will then be forced to grant an amnesty to those whose asylum claims have failed, creating an even greater incentive for others to make the crossing.

Steven Rose ● 307d

> On votes for 16 year olds, I don’t think the brief list of things this age group is allowed or partially allowed to do proves that they should be given the vote.No, but nor does a list of things they can't do until 18 prove they shouldn't be given the vote.Did you read the information on the Electoral Reform Society link I included or just dismiss it out of hand?> It is obvious that Labour’ simply intends to gerrymander future elections by enfranchising an age cohort likely to vote for left wing parties.. I am amazed that there has not been more discussion of this issue.And it is obvious that the right-of-centre parties will object to it on for the same reasons.Doesn't really matter as it's in the Labour manifesto, they'll be elected and they'll enact it.> RwandaWe've done this before. You disagree, I get it. Plenty of human rights organisations believe it's awful.> If ‘some form of deterrent may be required’, what deterrent are Labour proposing? It's not my job to come up with Labour's policies or the implementation details.> ManifestosTake it up with the parties. No point whining to me about it. The Conservatives manifesto is equally vague.> As I have tried to say on many occasions, Keir Starmer is completely out of his depth as a politician.I think most of the current set of politicians are. Maybe a period of stability will encourage people with a longer term vision to come through the ranks (of all parties).> As a radical lawyer ...Do you copy and paste this stuff from some form of Daily Mail anti-Starmer playbook?He may now privately regret doing some work for that organisation but, as he's pointed out several times, it's a fundamental concept of the UK law system that everyone is entitled to representation, and he's represented both sides of the system at numerous points in his career. For every serious crime someone is representing the defendant but no huge fuss is made about the lawyers/solicitors/barristers that represented Myra Hindley / Ian Brady, Peter Sutcliffe, Rolf Harris, etc. Many of those people have been ill whilst in prison, do you also castigate the nurses and doctors who treated them?Reminds me of the "Enemies of the people" headline about the judges who were doing their job and interpreting the law. The "wrong decision" and suddenly there are ad hominem attacks. No wonder the Conservatives want to opt out of the ECHR and build their own, that way they can stuff it full of their own appointees to get the outcomes they would prefer. Be damned with impartiality. Unlike the ECHR which was specifically designed to stop this by ensuring issues were not interpreted by judges from the litigating countries.As for the rest of the character assassination on Starmer, as I've said, the current crop of politicians don't really seem up to it but it's all we have at the moment, and the red lot seem a lot less worse than the blue lots. An equivalent analysis of Cameron/May/Johnson/Truss/Sunak doesn't have any of them coming out particularly well.

John Kettlekey ● 308d

On votes for 16 year olds, I don’t think the brief list of things this age group is allowed or partially allowed to do proves that they should be given the vote. They are not considered mature enough to purchase alcohol, fireworks or cigarettes, take out a mortgage, get married in England without parental permission or serve on the front line in the armed services. Why should they be allowed to vote for the legislators who make the laws on these issues. It is obvious that Labour’ simply intends to gerrymander future elections by enfranchising an age cohort likely to vote for left wing parties.. I am amazed that there has not been more discussion of this issue.Why is it cruel to send migrants to Rwanda? The UNHCR evidently believes Rwanda is a safe place because it agreed a plan with the African Union to send migrants from Libya to Rwanda. The first flight took place in 2022 when 119 vulnerable asylum seekers were transported to Rwanda . If ‘some form of deterrent may be required’, what deterrent are Labour proposing? The problems facing the country are immense, particularly as regards the NHS and housing. What are Labour’s plans to deal with these issues? First we were told, ‘wait for the manifesto’. Well the manifesto has been published and we still don’t know.The list of issues on which Keir Starmer has backtracked the last election include:1) Jeremy Corbyn’s suitability to be the next PM2) renationalisation of the utilities3) abolition of tuition fees4) higher rate of tax for the top 5% of earners5) freedom of movement for EU citizens6) scrapping universal credit7) scrapping the two child limit on benefits8) £28 billion green prosperity plan9) abolition of the House of Lords.As I have tried to say on many occasions, Keir Starmer is completely out of his depth as a politician. As a student he was a utopian Marxist, believing  that it was possible to create a society that would have no need of the police and where production would be for use, not for profit. As a radical lawyer he took up the cause of the Muslim Brotherhood, a dangerous Islamist organisation, arguing against a ban by the German authorities. And as a Labour MP he spouted a lot of the fashionable stuff listed above, gaining a reputation as a being on the left of his party. But once he became leader and had to think seriously about politics, he realised that a lot of what he believed, or thought he believed, was impractical or just plain daft. Now he has no convictions at all, just a vague sympathy for ‘working people’.The landslide predicted is not evidence of massive confidence in Labour, still less confidence in Keir Starmer. It is evidence of a split in the Right.The Conservatives and Reform are on around 36% and Labour on around 43%.

Steven Rose ● 308d

> It is almost a waste of time making these points.We've found some common ground! Hopefully we can build on this in future discussions.> But I don’t imagine that the objections to Labour’s ill-conceived VAT raid are likely to dissuade anyone from voting for Labour.Yep. I disagree with the cliff-edge implementation of the plan but agree with the general principle.> Nor will the stupidity of Labour’s plan to give 16 year olds the vote, allowing young people who are not considered mature enough to buy alcohol to vote on the licensing laws for everyone elseWe've done this before. 16 year olds can ride 50cc motorbikes on the road. 17 year olds can drive a car. 16 year olds can vote in some elections in parts of the union already. They can get married in some parts of the union (without parental permission) already. It's a well researched topic (earlier enfranchisement) and backed by the Electoral Reform Society (https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/could-this-be-the-last-general-election-that-excludes-16-and-17-year-olds/).> Nor the complete absence of a plan to deal with illegal immigration, having promised to scrap the deterrent intended by the Rwanda scheme.Because they believe it's a terrible scheme and smacks of performative cruelty. The Conservative's plan seemed to be to do as little as possible in terms of processing asylum seekers in order to generate as inhumane conditions as possible ("temporarily" housed in disused army barracks, on the Bibby Stockholm, etc). All of this has cost millions if not billions.Some for of a deterrent may be required (given that we can't accept each and every asylum seeker) but the only thing the scheme has sent to Rwanda is significant sums of money. It's another example of absolutely terrible (bordering on criminal) deal negotiation. Paying hundreds of millions up front for a scheme they was unlikely to succeed from the very beginning.> Nor the fact that Labour’s manifesto contains no concrete information on how they intend to build more houses or reduce NHS waiting lists or grow the economy.Manifestos rarely contain concrete (nice pun) plans. The Conservative manifest looks equally bereft of details on these subjects. The proof of the pudding of Labour's statements will be in their results over the next 5 years (if it lasts that long before another election). People have had enough of the Conservative promises to fix all of these things - which is fair enough given they've actually had the power to do things for the last 14 years and not only not fixed them but actually made many things worse. Even long standing Conservative supporters have run out of patience with "I promise we'll fix it this time, I know we said we'd do it the last two times but this time is different."> Nor the fact that Keir Starmer has repudiated virtually every policy which he advocated just five years ago. It is almost a waste of time making these points.By "virtually every policy" do you mean "some"? Otherwise this just sounds like the usual Daily Mail style "Look! A politician changed his mind about something!" Although if the current Government does it it's because the situation has changed and it's the right thing to do, if the opposition do it it's because they're weak and have no political backbone. A search for "Sunak u-turns" brings up a reasonable list if you want to do your own research.> Such individuals simply cannot bring themselves to vote Conservative, no how many deficiencies they see in Labour’s programme. It's interesting that you see that as the basis for the choice. I'd say that it's not "that they can't bring themselves to vote Conservative, no matter how many deficiencies they see in Labour's programme"; but more "they can't bring themselves to vote Conservative because the Conservative's programme has far more deficiencies than Labour's."In many people's eyes Labour are the "least worst" credible option which is a damning indictment of UK's politics right now. Hopefully this is the start of some proper long-term decision making rather than short-term popularist policies/politcs.There's also an element of naivety in the assumption that supporting a political party means supporting all of its policies. People have different viewpoints so it's no great surprise that ~50 million people in the UK able to vote don't fit neatly and exactly into the 5 or 6 different political buckets that exist. If everyone could only vote for a party where they agreed with every single policy of that party turnout would be frighteningly low. Life is a compromise.You've got to ask yourself why, if Labour's plans are so terrible, why they are set for such a monumental landslide. You've touched on many of the reasons (revenge, Brexit, pendulum effect, etc) but the absolute single most obvious thing you've not mentioned is that the Conservative party had everything they needed (majority, support, etc) and completely and utterly threw it away with infighting, power games, incompetency and staggering rapacity. That succession of prime ministers (Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak) will haunt the Tory party for generations.As for the jibe about Corbyn, Labour could probably replace Starmer with Corbyn right now and they'd still win a landslide in the General Election. That's how far the right has sunk.

John Kettlekey ● 309d

An estimated 90 000 children are currently waiting for Education and Health Care Plans, so their parents will either have to pay the additional fees or withdraw their children from their private school.and put them into the state sector where help for special educational needs is not always available.But I don’t imagine that the objections to Labour’s ill-conceived VAT raid are likely to dissuade anyone from voting for Labour. Nor will the stupidity of Labour’s plan to give 16 year olds the vote, allowing young people who are not considered mature enough to buy alcohol to vote on the licensing laws for everyone else. Nor the complete absence of a plan to deal with illegal immigration, having promised to scrap the deterrent intended by the Rwanda  scheme.  Nor the fact that Labour’s manifesto contains no concrete information on how they intend to build more houses or reduce NHS waiting  lists or grow the economy. Nor the fact that Keir Starmer has repudiated virtually every policy which he advocated just five years ago. It is almost a waste of time making these points.My impression is that people generally don’t cast their vote on the basis of rational consideration of what would be in the best interests of the country. They are more likely to be swayed by other factors, notably tribal loyalty, economic self-interest, the swing of the pendulum, revenge and self-image.I don’t think the first two factors are particularly important in Putney. Putney, unlike some Norther constituencies,  does not have a long standing Labour tradition characterised by a Labour tribe. The tax plans of the two main parties are similar, so I don’t think economic self- interest will influence the vote to any great extent. But the swing of the pendulum  is important. All governments end in failure, the current one with 7 million people on NHS waiting lists more than most, so people tend to think it is time to give the other lot a go. Revenge cannot be discounted as a motive. Many people are still angry about Brexit, for which  they blame the Conservatives. As for self-image, Putney has a number of voters who can be described as ‘urban professionals with a social conscience’, people who automatically associate the Left with moral virtue and the Right with a selfish disregard for others. Such individuals simply cannot bring themselves to vote Conservative, no how many deficiencies they see in Labour’s programme. Many of them  even voted last time for Jeremy Corbyn, an absurd figure now mocked by his former friend and colleague, Keir Starmer. The most they will do is vote Lib Dem or Green, parties whose main function is virtue signalling.

Steven Rose ● 309d

> Perhaps those supporting Labour’s policy might like to say whether they themselves or their children have benefited from attending independent schools. I'm a supporter of the general idea but not a cliff-edge implementation of it going straight to 20% from September (if that is what they are doing, couldn't determine the details from their manifesto). It should probably be phased in over a 5 year period. Something like VAT of 0% for the first year, then 5% second, 10% third, 15% fourth and finally 20% fifth.I've heard from friends of friends that there is a reasonable clamour for state school places in the borough as people try and pre-empt the upcoming changes but obviously don't have any specific numbers.All state schooling for myself and offspring. None of us have attended any fee paying schools at any time.Not a traditional Labour voter but I've never voted Conservative and I'll definitely be voting Labour in Putney to do my bit to help ensure the Conservatives don't take the seat back. If we had PR I'd be voting differently (more than likely Green but I'd spend a lot more time researching manifestos and policies if this was the case). It's a shame Putney was the only constituency in the country to go from Conservative to Labour in the 2019 General Election. Justine Greening was a good constituency MP but she was still a Conservative.I also wouldn't object to the wealthier end of the spectrum having to pay more tax (and that includes myself) but then I'm in the lucky position that I'm good at what I do and have a good income and am not "just managing".

John Kettlekey ● 316d

Michael, I don’t believe that independent schools are necessarily better in academic terms than state schools, though some can offer specialist provision which is not always available in the state system. But the inverted snobs who devised Labour’s policy evidently do believe that private education is a privilege reserved for the few, who deserve to be taxed in order to help the many (to use the terms favoured by Labour at the last election).The policy is misconceived for a number of reasons, many of which have been set out by other contributors to the Forum:1) it undermines the important principle that the provision of education and health in our society are benefits which should be free of tax2)  VAT is a regressive tax which will unfairly impact parents of modest means3) it will cruelly disrupt the education of children, many of them with special needs, whose parents cannot pay the additional fees4) there are insufficient places in the school system in many areas to accommodate the numbers of children who are likely to be withdrawn from the private schools5) the cost of educating these children in the state system will  severely offset any revenue raised by the tax6) many teachers and support staff in the independent sector will lose their jobs7) independent schools will become the preserve of the rich and the very rich.In short, a damaging policy motivated by a perverse ideology. I should like to add that I personally was educated and have always taught in the state system. But I question the integrity of those like Keir Starmer who have personally benefited from private education and now wish to make it more difficult for other people.

Steven Rose ● 317d

I'm not Mr Carter but...> Do you believe that people have the right to pay for their child's education outside of the state system that they are also paying for via taxation ?Yes, they are free to choose not to use the system they are paying for via general taxation (they could home school the children), and also free to choose to pay extra on top to have their children educated privately. Much like people who don't have a car still contribute to the upkeep of the road system as that is also funded from general taxation.In a similar way they're free to pay for private healthcare despite them also paying for the NHS (which they may never use) through general taxation.We could go through a huge list of things that are paid for out of general taxation and find things that any one of us doesn't use, will never use, and no-one in our family would use, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't all pay for them as part of being a member of society.The administrative burden associated with means-testing and allowing/validating exemptions/refunds often costs more than the money that would be "saved".What I personally object to is for private schools (which are commercial businesses, many of the times "for profit") to be dressed up as charities in order to avoid the need for paying VAT. It's a loophole that has long needed closing but the Tories were never going to grasp that nettle.Personally I think that it may be a mistake to suddenly end the VAT exemption for all private schools as a cliff-edge, but we'll eventually see what Labour's plans are for phasing it in, maybe they'll do it gradually. There's also the SEND aspect which I touched on in a different reply.

John Kettlekey ● 317d

> What is forgotten is that such taxes often affect those who are ‘just managing’.That is the case for any tax rise, or any stealth tax rise such as wage stagnation accompanied by roaring inflation caused by the inept Truss premiership. Such things always affect the "just managing" it's just in previous times the groups of people who were affected weren't towards the richer end of the spectrum. Now that it is suddenly affecting people with £90k/year jobs (as per the article linked before) it's making newspapers like The Telegraph that would rarely report on the "just managing".Sunak's comment today about "going without Sky TV" so that his parents could afford private school fees is yet another tone-deaf statement. It's as if he either has no media team or he is just ignoring them. The saga of the Paul Brand interview (which he left the D-Day commemorations to record, and will be aired tonight) just keeps on giving.It will be interesting to see the details of the "VAT raid" once the Labour manifesto is published (assuming the manifesto goes into enough details).They have said that SEND pupils with ECHPs will continue to be fully funded by the state, but they only account for about 7% of those pupils that receive SEND support in private schools.We'll find out if there is more protection for non-ECHP funded SEND pupils (such as a suspension of the VAT increase for pupils with appropriate diagnoses). Also if the VAT increase is going to come into force for all schools, all pupils, all at once, or whether it will be phased in over a number of years.What's certain is that the SEND provision in state schools needs a huge boost too, it's been massively underfunded/underprovisioned for years. This is a perfect opportunity to fix that at the same time.

John Kettlekey ● 317d