Forum Topic

The climate models are wrong!

Dr Friederike Otto, a climatologist at Imperial, is quoted as saying that "There are still problems with climate models that we don't quite understand yet."But before the denialists leap on this as evidence of some intergalactic conspiracy, the problems with the models are not that they overestimate the effects of global heating but that they underestimate them: for example, Professor Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University, says his research suggests that climate models fail to adequately link many extreme summer weather events to climate change.In other words, bad as things seem, they are actually worse, and its time to drop the foolish complacency and act NOW to reduce fossil fuel use if we are to leave a habitable planet to our grandchildren.

Richard Carter ● 1061d21 Comments

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/24/climate-sceptics-protest-emergency-activistsThe time has come to choose: do you trust the people in suits downplaying this emergency, or the activists lying in roads in an attempt to ward off catastrophe?

Matt Palmer ● 1057d

I note that the other scientist who is convinced that global warming is caused by solar activity, Piers Corbyn, is missing from that list. Yes, people are hesitant about replacing gas boilers with alternative technology, that's because gas has been favoured price wise over electricity and people have invested in it. The problem with electricity from nuclear power (aside from the waste problem) is the lead time from design to implementation is too long and expensive, while wind and solar are likely to deliver sooner at a lower cost. (I'd be happy to swap from gas to electricity if the prices were rebalanced.) As I noted before in this thread, given we're still arguing over the need for change it may be too late to mitigate against rising temperatures. The rising temperatures and CO2 levels doseem to validate the models and we must remember they are models so won't be accurate in every detail.

Michael Ixer ● 1058d

By Joe Weisenthal Jul 30, 2009, 4:01 PMThanks for the latest thinking on the subject.

David Ainsworth ● 1058d

Mr CarterNot all respected scientists are as doom-laden as those you quote.https://www.businessinsider.com/the-ten-most-important-climate-change-skeptics-2009-7?r=US&IR=T#ian-plimer-7Most do recognise climate change but are not totally sure what is causing it.They also put it into a cyclical historical perspective.That said I am sure most individuals realise they will have to do their bit and change their behaviour in some way.They are just not yet ready to give up central heating and road, rail, or air travel as currently provided until another source of power for such is practically and economically viable.Eco zealots as we know are of course quite willing to do so.But even those those in Germany who once thought nuclear powered energy supply was the devil's gift are beginning to change their minds as Putin turns off the gas tap and their jobs and comfort falter.Further, I think it is true that far and away more deaths are caused in low temperature climate than is the case for high temperature ones.

John Hawkes ● 1058d

and the crime figures which don't include fraud!

Philippa Bond ● 1059d

"*See "levelling up", "getting Brexit done", "making America great again""And "My pledges to you" - Keir Starmer

David Ainsworth ● 1060d

It seems to confirm that "Net Zero" is just another misleading slogan*, masking the reality that nothing much is actually been done.*See "levelling up", "getting Brexit done", "making America great again"

Michael Winstanley ● 1060d

This does seem to be embarrassing for the government: "The High Court ruling states that Greg Hands, the minister for business, energy and industrial strategy, who was responsible for signing off the government’s Net Zero Strategy, didn’t have the legally required information on how carbon budgets would be met, even though he approved the strategy." It seems to confirm many of the Conservative MPs, including recent candidates for PM, are indifferent to measures to limit climate change with some actively opposing them. Although as there appears to be no functioning government at present (are any ministers turning up to committees? Ms Patel seems to have gone AWOL) I don't suppose they care! https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2022/07/high-court-net-zero-ruling-shows-government-numbers-don-t-stack-up-labour-says/

Michael Ixer ● 1060d

They call it a political donation. I call it bribery. Steve Baker was involved in the Suella Braverman campaign. She is Attorney General.Nick

Nicholas Evans ● 1060d

I guess if one gets one's parties paid for by those who support fossil fuels one doesn't care about frying tha planet? :-(https://inews.co.uk/news/aviation-tycoon-paid-anti-net-zero-steve-baker-conservative-ball-1753172

Michael Ixer ● 1060d

Not forgetting they are off on holiday till September..... And then there will be a new PM, a new cabinet, so why take any responsibility?  (I am being very sarcastic!)

Ivonne Holliday ● 1061d

It's almost like the goverment doesn't think it's an emergency!"Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng had been due to answer questions on Wednesday afternoon from the Environmental Audit Committee on accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels and securing energy supplies.But Mr Kwarteng wrote to the committee’s chairman, Philip Dunne, on Wednesday morning to say he could no longer attend. "

Matt Palmer ● 1061d

Just think, if we'd been investing seriously in renewables a few decades ago we wouldn't be dependent on high priced fossil fuels now … still, we're now in damage limitation mode. Interesting, I seem to recall back in the early 1970s there was a concern we might run out of affordable fossil fuels. So it's not like there's been no incentive to look at alternative energy sources for a while even if the motivation has changed.I do wonder if we've left it to late to remediate the situation, particularly when none of the current candidates for PM seem to be fully behind it (it's odd that people against regulation would want to regulate against clean wind farms?), the US Supreme Court may well rule any action taken there as unconstitutional for spurious reasons, and Putin obviously doesn't care; not sure about the Chinese, they know they've got a problem but probably don't care about the rest of the world?Barbara, I don't think a few veteran cars is going to make much difference in the long run, at least not compared with the continued generation of electricity from "dirty" coal.

Michael Ixer ● 1061d

Ivonne, it came in an announcement by Sunak’s campaign, which said: “In recognition of the distress and disruption that onshore windfarms can often cause, Rishi has also promised to scrap plans to relax the ban on onshore windfarms in England, providing certainty to rural communities.”Distress and disruption??? Compared with the distress and disruption that the climate crisis is already causing? Has he lost his mind?

Richard Carter ● 1061d

That is really depressing news about Sunak.  He is an MP for North Yorkshire isn't he?

Philippa Bond ● 1061d

Where did you see this, Matt?I am surprised at the headline, particularly after the heat in the last two days....

Ivonne Holliday ● 1061d

You can't make this stuff up.

Matt Palmer ● 1061d

Andy the point I was making was, a lot in Chelverton including my other half had to renew their vehicle so it was compliant, but I don't know it was a classic car, just looked old, pumping smoke out, that got down my throat, it was so bad I had to put my hand over my face.

Barbara Stevens ● 1061d

Richard, I saw Professor Michael Mann on Channel 4 News yesterday and he was both impressive and clear about what needs to be done and, of course, depressing of how little has been done. He clearly stated that action is needed right now, and we have only 10 years left. Not until 2050.Nick

Nicholas Evans ● 1061d

Owning a classic car breaks no rules. Presumably has to pay ULEZ etc and ensure its road worthy. I think theres a deal on road fund licence but nothing else, though I stand to be corrected.

Andy Pike ● 1061d

Well funny how some people are allowed to keep their very old classic cars, because I sat for a few moments on the bench at the end of Chelverton, High St end. An open top small yellow sports car came to the lights in Chelverton the stink from the exhaust was disgusting and you could actually see the smoke from the exhaust emissions, so there is one rule for one.

Barbara Stevens ● 1061d