Forum Topic

Hi MichaelTake your point that there needs to be some interpretation/ deeper understanding of how the figures have been compiled but on the surface it does show rates of infection per 100,000 in each age range for people who are double vaxed and people who are un-vaxedSo if we look at my age range 50-59 (I know I’m shocked I’m this old also!) is shows:-Cases/ 100,000 of double vaxed 1075Cases per 100,000 of un vaxed  528Thus the double vaxed in this sample at this age range are over twice as likely to be infected as the in-vaxed.  In absolute terms the numbers of unvaxed are low but you can back calculate from the ratios and the numbers of infected if curious.  Still large enough numbers to have some statistical significance I would think.This appears the case for all age ranges between 30 and 80.  As I say this effect is shown in the last several publications but has become more pronounced on a cursory review.  I’ll be interested to see what happens next publicationAs you say table 3 (hospitalisation) and table 4 (deaths) show a significant benefit to the double vaxed, although this has slightly declined over the past few samples also but massively positive as we would expect.I’m not clear how they will incorporate the 3rd jab data which will start to be relevant for the 60+ at least in the next publication.  Maybe the 80+ already had an effect here.The observation I would make (or with at was made to me) is not that the immunity wanes over time (we expect to see this) but that in all age ranges over 30 based on this data and that for the previous two intervals it appears to turn negative, thus we see evidence of greater levels of infection several months after being double jabbed than in people who are not jabbed at all; not the same, not slightly better, but on these statistics, materially worse.Strange! 

Mike Warman ● 1560d

Hi Mike W, interesting. Only had time to have a quick look. If I'm reading it correctly this table only shows the ratios of of vaccinated to unvaccinated for those with an infection, not the proportion of vaccinated to unvaccinated in each age group with and without infections? If those vaccinated approaches 100% in a group then those in the unvaccinated population approaches zero so cases would correspondingly dimish to zero. (I also note the table contains a warning about caution in interpretation because of varying denominators.)Of course, we don't knows the proportion of unvaccinated people avoiding contact with others which might influence cases, but we do know that unvaccinated people have some natural immunity; on p3 it says 98% of the adult population have Covid-19 antibodies of which 18.7% are from infection alone. Can we therefore make an assumption that nearly 20% of unvaccinated people now have natural immunity? Although it might be dangerous mixing our sample populations ... how representative of the vaccinated:unvaccinated ratio are blood donors, so how reliable are those figures if they were to be applied to table 2?I'm not saying that they're definite explanations, just that I think there are a number of missing data which makes it difficult to draw conclusions - happy to be corrected if I've missed something.I'm more struck by tables 3 and 4 - and the corresponding figures 2: b, c & d - which show stronger protection against serious disease or death for those who are vaccinated. If the aim is to protect hospitals from being overloaded then that seems to be working at the moment. It's also necessary to keep in mind that the vaccines' efficacy against infection are at most 85%, and efficacy reduces with age and time; perhaps a good case for other measures to reduce transmission? It's certainly why there's a rush to do the booster vaccines!

Michael Ixer ● 1560d