Sue, I'd agree that all these predictions are "guestmates", as are all economic predictions; there are too many variables and future unknowns to predict anything for certain. Short term, provided we can make a controlled exit from pandemic restrictions during the next 6-9 months, it would seem reasonable to anticipate a steep recovery as people try to regain social lives, gain new employment, spend money they've saved during lockdowns and new businesses in entertainment, etc rise from the wreckage of old ones.Long term it's less clear: some areas are hampered by Brexit - such as the music business with new hurdles in setting up tours or just travelling for one off performances, SMEs struggling to come to grips with extra bureaucracy in exporting to their old EU customer base, financial services who can no longer operate in the EU to name a few - some will find ways around this but this may not be to Britain's advantage: Sir Simon Rattle has taken German citizenship and moved to Berlin, many small businesses are setting up EU distribution centres but that's normally to the advantage of EU employment with a corresponding reduction in UK employees.Many businesses will find alternative markets but that depends how good, for example, US, Australian, etc trade deals are and when (and if) they are completed; not a quick wins, and there may still be a financial services equivalence deal with the EU; - again, probably not a quick win if we keep putting random EU citizens in detention centres if a home office official is unclear about their paperwork!Other uncertainties are Scottish independence and Irish unity; the DUP being headed by a creationist, even if he's not going to be First Minister, doesn't seem like progress. Also, if the EU economy tanks that's possibly not good for the UK; they are our closest neighbour so possibly not good for the UK's tourist and luxury food exports? But we do have great opportunities in science and technology; satellites (OneWeb might not be the "turkey" some predicted), biotech (our vaccine and genome technology has rescued he UK from initially botched lockdowns and test & trace systems) and quantum 2.0 has a host of possibilities tn strong encryption, faster computing, serveellance systems, etc; plus there's plenty of opportunities in renewables and other remedies for climate change, provided the government isn't just "green washing".Are we looking at Greast Britain or Liitle England? I think it's too soon to tell; I wouldn't like to predict!
Michael Ixer ● 1805d