Forum Topic

Brexit triumphant, yet again

Another great success for Brexit: the arrangement for seasonal workers to come short term to the UK includes fruit and veg picking - but not for flowers or ornamental plants. The result? A shortage of people to pick them, as a result of which, the UK's largest daffodil grower in Cornwall, which normally harvests 500 million stems, will have to leave millions unpicked, and Taylor Bulbs in Lincolnshire  will be harvesting fewer than 10 million stems instead of the normal 40 million. And unlike the happy British fish, the daffs won't be smiling because they'll be left to rot. "UK flower growers hit by post-Brexit labour shortages"https://www.ft.com/content/e87bf45c-e1a6-4d8e-98f5-f0411820f48e

Richard Carter ● 1867d92 Comments

Richard ... You're spoiling my fun 🙂

Michael Ixer ● 1852d

"surely, those promoting and voting for Brexit wouldn't have been reckless enough to risk breaching the GFA and peace without having a solution"?Well, unless you're being ironic, Michael, I think there's a far simpler explanation: many who voted for Brexit either hadn't thought about Northern Ireland or they couldn't care less about it.

Richard Carter ● 1852d

Oops, sorry, bounced the submit key!

Michael Ixer ● 1852d

So, Paul, what is the solution for Northern Ireland? One that avoids either a border in Ireland or the Irish Sea, honours both EU and UK trading rules and does not breach the GFA. I'll happily admit one of my arguments against Brexit was that I couldn't see a logical solution to that; surely, those promoting and voting for Brexit wouldn't have been reckless enough to risk breaching the GFA and peace without having a solution, so just tell us what it is, please.

Michael Ixer ● 1852d

So, Paul, what is the solution for Northern Ireland? One that avoids either a border in Ireland or the Irish Sea, honours both EU and UK trading rules and does not breach the GFA. I'll happily admit one of my arguments against Brexit was that I couldn't see a logical solution to that; surely, those promoting and voting for Brexit wouldn't have been reckless enough to risk breaching the GFA and peace without having a solution, so just tell us what it is, please.

Michael Ixer ● 1852d

"And you want to belong to an organisation like that? "Paul we were part of that Organisation for almost 50 years helping it to become protectionist.As for China it just a fact that the bigger the trading partner the bigger the influence be it USA, EU or now China.What rules did you think the British Empire played by? What about the Opium wars with China?

Ed Robinson ● 1853d

"Presumably say I am sorry we made a mistake"Didn't we make a mistake?

David Ainsworth ● 1853d

The EU has no intention of being reasonable. Their aim is to make life as difficult as it can for us. Look at them over Northern Ireland, or trade in financial services, or fishing etc. What would you do in this situation? Presumably say I am sorry we made a mistake & take whatever they do to us from now on. They are bullies. And they made a deal with China, another bully.They don't even care about their own people in the middle of a pandemic. And you want to belong to an organisation like that?

Paul Rolink ● 1853d

George Eustice, the DEFRA secretary, has just been humiliated by his own ignorance. He wrote to Stella Kyriakides, the EU Commissioner for Health and Food Safety, to complain that he was “surprised that the Commission [had] changed its position” on the question of importing live, bivalve molluscs: “We can see no scientific or technical justification for this change and the news was conveyed to us rather casually and after the event. This is not in the collaborative and cooperative spirit in which we wish to work together going forward”. Kyriakides' reply gently reminded the hapless Eustice that he himself has personally written and signed a letter to stakeholders two months earler setting out the precise position, the one he was claiming to have been ‘surprised’ by, with crystal clarity. Eustice had clearly either not read or not understood his own advice to UK stakeholders.The former Labour MEP Richard Corbett commented that “The hypocrisy and incompetence of Tory Brexit ministers is jaw dropping. They wanted Brexit, told us ‘Brexit means Brexit’, and now [they] complain about the consequences of Brexit!"https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/hapless-defra-secretary-eustice-humiliated-and-schooled-by-the-eu/

Richard Carter ● 1856d

That raises an interesting question: could one have an extreme remainers? There was only  one position on the remain side - maintaining the status quo, whereas on the leave side there were the options from the EEA through to WTO. One of my Brexit colleagues said to me the day after the referendum "why do we have to go through all this transition and negotiations nonsense, why not just leave today"; my answer was "you could walk out of your job today without giving notice, but do you want a reference?" So much misunderstanding ...I think the problem is we got the winner takes it all from the dancing queen? I don't think there was ever any option for a compromise, it was let's launch into invoking A50 even if there's no parliamentary permission to do it.Anyway, too late now - fishermen, flower growers and financial services are f***ed, as are musicians, actors and artists who want to tour the EU - and what's the solution for NI, I notice the Brexit advocates ignore that question ... whereas that was the obvious primary issue before the referendum. 

Michael Ixer ● 1858d

"would not have been acceptable to extreme Brixiteers such as the ERG "Michael, the same goes for many remainers. Although if communicated accurately I believe the majority of remainers and brexiteers could have compromised. The problem was the media and BBC gave too much time to the extremes.A Greek college told me that he was embarrassed about the quality of the EU debate in Greece until he saw the UK debate. He was shocked!

Ed Robinson ● 1858d

Interesting that not one of the pitiful band of Brexiteers here has come on to celebrate the effects of the great Brexit deal, not even Paul Rollink, who's gone rather quiet of late.

Richard Carter ● 1858d

Ed. I thing you'll find that a Norwegian style deal with the EU - effectively EEA membership - would not have been acceptable to extreme Brixiteers such as the ERG or many UKIP members. EU directives such as MiFID II would still be applicable to the UK. A worse situation as we'd become rule takes without being able to contribute to the rules ...Possibility some EU countries have more paperwork, I'm not sure, but we didn't seem to suffer from it when we were EU members, did we? I seem to recall it's not that straightforward importing/exporting goods from the USA. After shipping, taxes, etc the UK price of IT and electronic goods seem to work out the same but in £ not $ but it's a couple of decades since I've been involved in that and the - and the pound was worth more then as well!  https://www.finanstilsynet.no/en/news-archive/press-releases/2017/implementation-of-mifid-ii-and-mifir-in-norway--temporary-regulations/

Michael Ixer ● 1858d

That’s because of the Prof Hix and his trilemma.  The Brexiteers wanted to exit the SM and the CU. Tick. All sides wanted an open border on the island of Ireland to protect the GFA. Tick. The DUP (and the UK govt despite negotiating it away) did not want a border in the Irish Sea. Only possible if the border is on the island of Ireland. Or the UK stays in the CU and SM.  So you can have two of the three but not all three (unless the UK rejoins the EU).There is a 4th option: a border between Ireland and the rest of the EU so there’s no need for any sort of border between the UK and Ireland. The DUP are now advocating this but I can’t see that being a runner.

Jonathan Callaway ● 1858d

A big mistake not to go for Norway type deal. I must stop saying that!This is what the UK goverment wanted, to be free of EU regulation internally.Exporters must get used to the necessary paperwork that's the new norm. It does makes exports more difficult but the UK team knew that.With my limited experience of European countries they are seem very bureaucratic and used to paperwork, but that could just be my ignorance.With this type of trade deal I can only see the balance of payments getting worse!

Ed Robinson ● 1858d

I thought that's what the Daily Mail wanted: Brexit  means Brexit, well, actually it means we're now a third country as we're no longer part of the EU. Why is the Daily Mail or anyone surprised? I do feel sorry for those businesses if  their owners voted to remain but it's the Mail and Brixiteers who lied about it they should complain to, or Lord Frost and Johnson for not negotiating a better deal, not the EU! I notice no one on this forum in favour of Brexit has proposed a solution for NI that will keep the DUP happy that will all be acceptable to the EU and Sinn Féin.

Michael Ixer ● 1858d

And yet more whining from the Mail, because the EU is applying third country rules (that we helped devise!)  to a third country (us). https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9307691/How-Brussels-launched-spiteful-war-glorious-snowdrops-rhododendrons.htmlAlternatively, Project Fear becomes Project Reality.

Richard Carter ● 1858d

Thanks Jonathan.It was interesting but I still have so many questions about our future position in the world. Sadly as yet I can see no gains from Brexit and I do wish someone could indicate what if any gains there are..

Katrina Black ● 1859d

Thank you Jonathan, a very interesting video.

Ed Robinson ● 1860d

A thought-provoking analysis of where the UK goes now, its future relationship with the EU and the possible after-effects of Brexit is in this presentation by Professor Simon Hix, the Pro-Director for Research and the Harold Laski Professor of Political Science at LSE.There is plenty here to both hearten and dishearten  Remainers and Brexiteers alike. I therefore recommend it as a welcome and fundamentally objective contribution.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3TJiG6Hlu0

Jonathan Callaway ● 1860d

Yes, Ed. I think it's a good representation. In fact there were similar diagrams doing the rounds at the time of the referendum but they were mainly used to explain the difference between the EU and ECHR to those Brexiteers who seemed to not understand the difference!

Michael Ixer ● 1860d

I do like that diagram.I wish it was used after the referendum to show the possibilities of Brexit.Unfortunately those in power and opposition didn't want us to have that discussion.

Ed Robinson ● 1860d

You are just making up slogans rather tha relating to facts, which you either don't want to look up or mis-state.I do not want to re-fight the referendum, it was over a long time ago, we have left the EU and there is no going back.The thread was about the CONSEQUENCES of Brexit.It is a shame that people who were hoodwinked into believing some fantasy version of trade and economics are still repeating it parrot fashion.Please actually LOOK AT the economic performance of the EU countries and the other statistics I suggested you refer to.Otherwise you are just embarassing yourself.

Michael Winstanley ● 1861d

Looks like the EU deal isn't going to be the only difficult one. I hope after the delays caused by the review by the new US negotiators it's not going to be a US-UK win-loss deal

Michael Ixer ● 1861d

The fact is that the EU is a low growth declining block.The few EU countries you refer to are Germany, perhaps the Netherlands and that's about it. The euro works for them & screws the rest. They have the trade surplus,although that is no measure of success. No point looking at 5 year growth just look at the fact that since the euro was introduced the UK has grown twice as fast as the EU. None of this is the point though is it. You cannot get over the fact you lost the referendum, tried everything you could to overturn the result & ended up with with Boris with his 80 seat majority. Three times a loser & you still you wail & scream. It's pathetic to watch.

Paul Rolink ● 1861d

Ha ha, nice try, Andy - but I wasn't the one who brought up the war, but the (former) French ambassador, and that was only to point up the English obsession with it.

Richard Carter ● 1861d

I'd agree with that, Ed - I said win-win not +50%/+50% 🙂

Michael Ixer ● 1861d

There you go Richard bringing a 75 year old war into it......

Andy Pike ● 1862d

"I always thought that the idea of a good trade deal was to provide a win-win deal"Apparently trade deals always favour the largest participant. Obviously there needs to be some win win but not necessarily equal. Very logical when you think about it.A bit like suppliers getting a supermarket deal I guess. The smaller participant is hoping that the increase in volume is going to outweigh the lower unit price and the cost of additional supermarket requirements.And the EU is big!

Ed Robinson ● 1862d

I suggest you get on the internet and look up the following for the UK and a few EU countries:-average earnings per capita-5 year economic growth rate-external trade surplusThen the share of UK exports going to its major trading partners and the annual rates of growth/decline in those.You could also look at the UK's external tariff for motor cars vehicles whilst you are at it.But hey! Cheap oranges!

Michael Winstanley ● 1862d

You are just ranting and clearly don't know what you are talking about. Try looking up the actual figures to which you are referring. The EU's Single Market, though it is not completely open, is the most open and integrated services market-place anywhere in the world. No FTA between countries nor trade bloc achieves such openness in the trading of services. If you know of one, please say where it is.Now that we have left, we face the same barriers to trading fish with the EU as any other non-EU country - whether we are trying to sell fish or anything else. So no, it is not vindictive. Indeed, under the WTO's rules (which hard Brexiters were always so keen on referring to), the EU is not able to behave otherwise than this.Also you are confusing free trade in the Single Market (which takes place within the EU) and the EU's trade surpluses (which are between its countries and other countries). You're not really adding anything useful to the discussion tbh.

Michael Winstanley ● 1862d

Who puts up the trade barriers? They do.Now we have left it we can trade with the rest of the world without them. No import duties on oranges, coffee or a 10% tariff on imported cars for example. Our trade will move to the rest of the world as it has been doing for at least the last 10 years. If they make it more difficult to export to them then this will will make it happen sooner. Britain has a highly adaptable economy remember, not them. They are the one's in decline with their single currency, single interest rate low growth economy. It's an economic basket case. That's your answer.

Paul Rolink ● 1862d

I always thought that the idea of a good trade deal was to provide a win-win deasl for the parties. Irrespective of the philosophical merits oif Brexit  in reality the EU-UK trade deals seems to provided a lose-lose deal for both of iuts parties in the costs to businesses, particularly fisheries, according to that article.

Michael Ixer ● 1862d

An article on how the EU is adjusting to the post Brexit situation:https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/ireland-nets-25-of-eus-fund-to-cover-brexit-costs/?utm_source=EURACTIV&utm_campaign=ae9e1f7508-RSS_EMAIL_EN_Politics&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c59e2fd7a9-ae9e1f7508-116228987

Katrina Black ● 1862d

And the point is underlined by the former French ambassador to the UK in a new book: she says that some Brexiters are consumed with hatred for Germany and gripped by a myth that they liberated Europe on their own, describing Brexit as a triumph of emotion over reason, won by a campaign full of lies in which negative attitudes to migration were exploited by figures such as Johnson and Michael Gove.She seeks to define the psyche that led to Brexit. She describes “the partisans of Brexit as reciting a history in which the UK is never defeated, never invaded”. She suggests a country that considers it singlehandedly won the second world war, liberating the continent and deserving of gratitude.Referencing the more than 22 million Russians who died in the war, she says “this does not disturb the discourse of the Brexiters who peddle the myth that the UK liberated Europe alone and needs no one”.She adds that France does have a debt of gratitude to the British, but “it is right to remember that they were not alone and you cannot live with a history that stopped in June 1944”.“The corollary of an England saving Europe,” she adds, “is a detestation of Germany and contempt for cowardice – the term is often used for those who allowed themselves to be occupied, not to mention collaborated.”

Richard Carter ● 1862d

Ha ha, Richard. Is that the 50 year projection?

Michael Ixer ● 1863d

With apologies to Mike Ixer... 

Richard Carter ● 1863d

That's a long list of negatives.  But where are the positives about leaving an internal market of 500 million people which takes (or took) 40%+ of our exports?  How do we make up the difference when all the countries we are concluding copycat trade deals with are ones we could already trade freely with as an |EU member?They are only stopping our fish exports because we are now a third country and didn't cut a good enough deal before we left.  We didn't even do a fisheries deal with Iceland or Norway.  What a mess.I see no net benefit.  Surely that can't be because there isn't one?

Jonathan Callaway ● 1863d

They don't have a higher growth rate, higher wages or a higher standard of living, just the opposite, they are the ones declining not us. The EU is a protectionist racket. You just have to look at them stopping our shell fish exports, or the forms that have to be filled in by red pen or blue pen & their efforts to stop the trade coming through Dover or Northern Ireland. Vindictive or what. I presume  you would accept their appalling terms of trade with us (yes you can have a single market in goods where we have a huge surplus, but no you can't have a single market in services , because we can't compete with you). Why on earth anyone would want to be a part of that I can't imagine.

Paul Rolink ● 1863d

A picture paints a  thousand words ...(I won't get into the FB argument about whether that should be the Dis-United Kingdom of Great Britain.)

Michael Ixer ● 1863d

A picture paints a  thousand words ...(I won't get into the FB argument about whether that should be the Dis-United Kingdom of Great Britain.)

Michael Ixer ● 1863d

"As for the trade barriers, who is responsible for that? "That, in a way, goes to the heart of this part of the post-Brexit debate. And WE are responsible for the trade barriers, because it's we who left the EU of our own volition (well, a bare majority of 52% of us) and can no longer expect to benefit from the internal market. Suppose, Paul Rollink, you were a member of a leisure centre but decided to leave it: if you then whined that the managers wouldn't let you continue to swim there because your membership was over but it was the managers who were at fault, you'd get short shrift and quite rightly too.And a challenge to you: please outline the benefits to the UK of our having left the EU. I've asked this countless times of Sue Hammond and other Brexit ideologues but have never received an answer. You're obviously a Brextremist, so I'm sure you'll have worked out what we have gained from leaving. But I'm not holding my breath.

Richard Carter ● 1863d

When I picked strawberries at a Pick Your Own recently they were not at ground level but in growbags on trestles.  When I picked them 50 years go they were in the ground.  I wonder whether there have been any changes and what changes there have been to picking daffodils in the intervening years.

Philippa Bond ● 1863d

Yes and you clearly still don't. You describe as benefits a series of technical innovations which can happen with or without membership. And you are oblivious to the trade barriers we have now erected. You don't even recognise them. The phrase "shackled to a dead horse" is a giveaway. The other  countries of Europe will remain important large trading partners for the foreseeable future (decades). In that respect we cannot escape such "shackles". But we have just made it more costly for us to carry out this trade. There is no corresponding benefit. And that "dead horse" has a higher growth rate, higher wages and a higher standard of living than we do

Michael Winstanley ● 1864d

We will not rejoin the EU - they do not want us back. We are too much trouble for them. In addition, we could not join as a new member without adopting the Euro and Schengen - a 3rd referendum would not go to yes on these terms.

Michael Winstanley ● 1864d

Yes, I am guilty of patronising people (adult people) who believe in imaginary things - the tooth fairy, father xmas, and yes, "sovrenty". It is an illusion. We are less free to do things today (Covid restrictions apart) than we were 5 years ago. If you feel more free, good for you. But have you ever been able to explain to anyone what it is you are now able to do with your new found freedom?

Michael Winstanley ● 1864d

Good question, Freddie. I dont see what those points have to do with Brexit. The construction industry has been building high rise office blocks and flats from prefabricated units for several years. Many of the soulless rabbit hitches in Wandsworth are built like that, some including flammable cladding as well! Some budget hotels have self service check-in now; McDonalds have kiosks for ordering in some units, and Wetherspoons have an app for ordering at your table, as do Young and Co and others now. So change has nothing to do with Brexit - Covid is a prime driver in many instances. Click and collect or deliveries are good for lockdowns or working late but not always good for meeting friends or colleagues for a drink, coffee, or meal are they? Or are you saying post Brexit it's going to be an austere boring world? And it will be responsible for automating service jobs? The Brexit voters of Newcastle won't like that ... they like a good party 

Michael Ixer ● 1864d

Who are you arguing with?

Freddie Francis ● 1864d

The building trade is stuck in the middle ages.Just build the prefrabricated house in a factory & connect it all on site. As for hotels just automate the check in, after all we do it for the booking. Pubs likewise, just order & swipe.As for restaurants, if you want to sit down & have someone to cook your dinner & bring it to your table you will have to pay a price for that. Otherwise you have it delivered or go & collect it as I do. As for the trade barriers, who is responsible for that? When we left the EU we knew we needed to change & yes it will take time. In your world more of the same is easy, self satisfying & condescending.Shackling us to that dead horse never enters your mind. Do you really think that us leavers didn't know what we were voting for?

Paul Rolink ● 1864d

Can’t say I am too worried about Betfair.  On the day of Referendum, their odds were 84% in favour of Remain.  Ladbrokes were 86%.  

Martine Guy ● 1864d

"if Jocks disappear unlikely they will ever lose an election."Still, remember that chap who wrote the essay "The End of History" after the fall of the Soviet Bloc?"The essay centers around the idea that now that its two most important competitors, fascism and communism, have been defeated, there should no longer be any serious competition for liberal democracy and the market economy." (Wikipedia)If the Tories never lose another election, then something else will happen. Apple-carts do tend to get upset.No, I don't know what it will be, but it may well be as unpleasant as much of the last 30 years have been since Professor Fukuyama wrote that essay.

David Ainsworth ● 1864d

"Excellent post!"Boohoo as they say!As mentioned earlier the minimum wage is not always enforced. Besides unions I'm not sure if the government has ever prosecuted.Then there are deductions from the minimum wage such as accommodation.Some interesting stuff here:https://farmwell.org.uk/seasonal-workers-and-modern-slavery/

Ed Robinson ● 1864d

As a gambler 5/1 are ridiculous odds aimed at the hopeful mug punter. If you work if out this govt will still be here in 2o24. Its unlikely they will lose a majority in next election and if Jocks disappear unlikely they will ever lose an election.

Andy Pike ● 1864d

it's not going to happen. sadly. not with the tories and labor are unelectable.

Gregory Edelston ● 1864d

I think realistically the best we can expect is to rejoin the customs Union and/or the single market rather than full membership. And even that will take a time. Very few signs of realism breaking out on the Brexiteer side and the current govt seems determined to stick to its chosen path.

Jonathan Callaway ● 1864d

Apparently the bookmakers Betfair are putting the odds for the UK  rejoining the EU by 2026 at 5/1, as a result of growing frustrations with Brexit.They claim: “It might fall to a new generation of politicians, in both main parties, to have the honest conversation about Brexit that’s so far failed to materialise.  Getting that done in time for 2026 looks tight. But five years is a long time – think how much has happened in UK politics since 2016 – and the [betting] market on the UK rejoining is worth watching."

Richard Carter ● 1864d

Michael W's post seems to be on target. I'm sure some didn't realise when they voted for Brexit that it would take ten or more years for any benefits (or further disadvantages) to be realised. Those making promises in 2016 can be fairly safe no one will hold them accountable in 2030 ... so much else will have changed by then (we might all be driving electric cars, eating vegan food, working over gigabit fibre internet, many older Brexiteers will have died, pigs might be flying, ...). And perhaps Mr W's spelling of sovereignty is not a mistake; firstly, he carefully put it in quotes, why? Secondly, we've still agreed to remain an ECHR  signatory, we're maintaining NATO membership, we're great fans of the WTO, etc all of which have rules that curtail sovereignty to some extent? Anyway, typos aren't all bad if one's a busy person ...https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/633063/reason-its-so-hard-spot-your-own-typos

Michael Ixer ● 1864d

it may be patronizing but it's absolutely spot on. (and the poor fishermen!)you got no argument as demonstrated by your petulant dig at a typo!

Gregory Edelston ● 1864d

"A lot of people realised this when they voted Leave and felt that having that extra "sovrenty" was worth the cost. I do sympathise with those who believed it when they were lied to that such costs wouldn't be there, but there's not a great deal that can be done about it now."A very patronising post Michael.  "soventry" 🙄

Sue Hammond ● 1865d

Excellent post! Thank you, Michael.

Richard Carter ● 1865d

It starts at £4 something for an apprentice or someone under 18. But it it £6.45 and upwards for anyone else. Under 18's should be in full-time education, not moon-lighting as fruit and flower pickers, except perhaps in school/college holidays.This suggestion of "cheap labour from Europe" is a nonsense. Europeans are subject to the minimum wage legislation too. There are people in this country on unemployment benefit who get sanctioned if they refuse work. It isn't the labour rate (cheap or otherwise) which is the issue here, it is access to the right workers.These businesses/farms need the right labour at the right time. People with appropriate skills who are able to travel to the farms at the appropriate time - itinerant workers. By leaving the Single Market we have reduced the range of skills available to us, just as we have reduced the breadth of export opportunities and the availability of imports and taken away opportunities to work and study in Europe. Putting up barriers at frontiers reduces choice and increases costs. This is unavoidable. A lot of people realised this when they voted Leave and felt that having that extra "sovrenty" was worth the cost. I do sympathise with those who believed it when they were lied to that such costs wouldn't be there, but there's not a great deal that can be done about it now.

Michael Winstanley ● 1865d

There's a good crop in Wandsworth Park if anyone wants to find out ... but I'm sure it's against the by laws to pick them.

Michael Ixer ● 1865d

I think you are wrong Sue.You haven't seen them because they have gone.  There are some that remain because they have families here.  They come here to broaden their experience and since they are better at learning languages in the EU than here they find it much easier to fit in. I suspect many of these come here of their own volition rather than being recruited abroad. The Hospital Trusts advertise jobs abroad eg the Philippines and go abroad to interview staff.  There are thousands of vacancies in the NHS and there are also a lack of domiciliary carers causing problems with patients needing care assessed and plans written and set up before they leave hospital. The failure to join up care in and out of hospital can lead to buck passing.  It may also not be made clear to those receiving care who they should be dealing with and what they are entitled to. What you never hear from politicians in power is what National Minimum Wages and Living Wages are - currently they vary from £8 something to £4 something. If they quote a figure they will of course quote just the top rate. Changing the name also just causes confusion for everyone. After the current Govt decided to use the wording Living Wage it seems the Living Wage Foundation has now started to refer to the Real Living Wage. https://www.gov.uk/national-minimum-wagehttps://www.livingwage.org.uk/And as for Zero Hour Contracts - we've seen the problems they cause with a pandemic.

Philippa Bond ● 1865d

Hope not.  Not sure they are edible ...

Jonathan Callaway ● 1865d

Are we eating daffodils now then?

Andy Pike ● 1865d

Sue, a very brief bit of googling reveals thishttps://metro.co.uk/2019/11/24/11000-nhs-staff-eu-left-since-brexit-referendum-11210485/This might also assisthttps://fullfact.org/health/eu-staff-nhs-what-has-happened-referendum/Or thishttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-48205445I agree there are a lot of Filipino nurses in the NHS, as there are Indians, Zimbabweans, Nigerians etc but I am not making assumptions, I am making an observations based on a lot of reports from multiple sources in the years since the referendum.The big change is the drop in nurses from the EU - as the reports above indicate.If British farmers have to pay more to get the seasonal staff they need we will ultimately see the results in higher supermarket prices. Brexiteers confidently forecast cheaper food as a result of Brexit.  No doubt we will see who is right in due course.

Jonathan Callaway ● 1865d

9.1% of doctors and 6.0% of nurses are EU nationals. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7783/Sue - that seems to indicate that the NHS certainly relies heavily on EU workers.Nick

Nicholas Evans ● 1865d

I picked daffodils in the holidays - I suspect it was probably a half-term - in Devon with a friend about 50 years ago.  It was hard work out in the fields but great fun. I wonder how much it has changed since then.  Teenagers didn't spend so much of their time obsessing about their looks and there was no social media.  We did spend a lot of time listening to music and saving up and swapping LPs.  Sport was more important - and we walked a lot too and werere more aware of the natural world as a twice a day bus was often not at the right time or missed and if no-one we knew from the oommunity stopped and gave us a lift we had to find a public phone as parental transport was only available by prior arrangement .

Philippa Bond ● 1865d

@Jonathan 10.54Your assumption that the NHS relies heavily on EU workers coming here to work is largely disingenuous nonsense being used to fuel your anti-Brexit stance.  It just doesn't stack up.I have been attending Kingston Hospital (Medical Day Unit) every 28 days since 2012 and the majority of nurses have been/are Philipino. This is also the case in the other out-patient departments I have attended; and Malaysian (Indian and Chinese) doctors and nurses seem to be predominant in the Royal Eye Unit.  I have never encountered any migrants from the EU working in the hospitals that I attend, and why would they when they can earn the same and probably more in their own countries?As for seasonal EU workers, I do agree that it will be much more difficult for employers to capitalise on this supply of cheap labour.  It may force them to pay more than the minimum wage in order to attract indigenous workers which would be no bad thing.

Sue Hammond ● 1865d

"Sorry David I suppose we should also avoid the words 'hind' and 'sight' to avoid upsetting Keir."Oh deer, musk you?

David Ainsworth ● 1865d

Sorry David I suppose we should also avoid the words 'hind' and 'sight' to avoid upsetting Keir.

Andy Pike ● 1865d

Are these the daffodils which are usually in the supermarkets at this time for £1 a bunch? Always a cheerful bonus. Sad if we can't cheer ourselves up just when we need them!

Caroline Whitehead ● 1865d

Please do not use the terms "Labour" and "daff" in such proximity. Keir has feelings.

David Ainsworth ● 1865d

Richard. I'd tend to agree with you, my comment was a little tongue in cheek. But are they British daffs in the shops, Jonathan? Irrespective of whether one's for remain or leave expecting a deal to be implement in three days when we've had decades of free movement is just irresponsible. Ok, people have known since 2016 that things would change but not the details weren't known until Christmas Eve. Ok, large financial services companies could afford to set up EU subsidiaries even if they turned out not to be necessary but one shouldn't expect small SMEs with tight margins to burn off funds unnecessarily for preparations that might not be needed; and who would know the British negotiators would throw entertainers to the wolves and not agree visa waivers for those needing to tour the EU? Totally unrealistic.

Michael Ixer ● 1865d

Is the shortage of foreign pickers "a deliberate action as part of the government's policy to fight climate change"?I can only wish that the government even had a policy on fighting climate change! Sounds more like yet another moronic cock-up on the part of the government. Not so much "an oven-ready deal" as a decaying, noisome turkey.

Richard Carter ● 1865d

Amazingly, you can still buy daffs in the shops.  But my point was rather broader than a possible daff shortage.

Jonathan Callaway ● 1865d

That's the labour not the daffs 😁

Andy Pike ● 1865d

A shortage of daffodils!! My God the end of the world is nigh. They might return when they realise theyll get vaccinated this year.

Andy Pike ● 1865d

Paul, if the loss of "cheap foreign labour" was a desired consequence of Brexit it has also had some undesired consequences - staff shortages in the NHS and care sector for example.  The often heard complaint that cheap foreign labour was doing Brits out of jobs, eg in the building trade, has not been proven and there are serious shortages on many building sites.Some of this is Covid-related where foreigners have gone home to avoid the high infection rates here, some of it is Brexit and work permit-related.  Ass the pandemic recedes now we are all getting vaccinated, it will be interesting to see how the building, agriculture and hospitality sectors recover.  Not many Brits seem to want these jobs - ask the daffodil grower for example.A very likely consequence of the loss of cheap foreign labour will be higher prices in the shops, and potential shortages given the new trade barriers between us and Europe.Was that all consciously voted for by Brexiteers?  I suppose the good news is that we will only have to wait 10 years to see the benefits, if we are to believe Dominic Raab.  Pity that 10 year estimate didn't appear before the referendum.

Jonathan Callaway ● 1865d

It's interesting that visas are available for foreign fruit pickers but not for flower cutters? Is just another aspect of what is a rushed, incomplete and poorly negotiated deal by the UK? Or is a a deliberate action as part of the government's policy to fight climate change and reduce the environmental consequences of current flowers?https://www.greenjournal.co.uk/2019/08/the-environmental-impacts-of-the-cut-flower-industry/

Michael Ixer ● 1865d

Seems it happened last spring as well, pre Brexit, due to covid and a number of large supermarkets de listing flowers during the crisis.ie creating in store space for social distancing or more vital goods.

Andy Pike ● 1866d

"This year is a one-off and seasonal workers are impeded more by Covid than anyone else."Possibly true as we are a high covid country but lookin at 8 April 2019 it was Brexit and a poor exchange rate.https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6894853/Daffodil-shortage-fears-farmers-workers-pick-crop.html

Ed Robinson ● 1866d

This year is a one-off and seasonal workers are impeded more by Covid than anyone else.Next year, when hopefully movement will be easier again, we have to recognise that Brexit has made all kinds of things unprofitable, impossible or difficult. This is ithe price we have paid for extra "sovereignty" - which the majority of the population voting apparently wanted, despite the cost. The (approx) 4% fall in GDP which this involves (the cost which we apparently were willing to pay since we repeatedly voted this way) will be spread acoss a number of areas.One example is the daffodil growers, who will no longer have access to the same trained seasonal workers. They will have to pay to attract and re-train new ones. This is not a full time job, so they will have to find some group of UK citizens who have things to do for the rest of the year.It occurs to me that this is a job opportunity for the thousands of Brits who will no longer be able to work as reps, guides and hospitality staff in the European ski resorts. Maybe these young folk will be glad that instead of slumming it in Tignes, they get to work on the land in Bude. If not, they know who to thank.

Michael Winstanley ● 1866d

It is a fair point Paul.I guess it depends what conditions and pay these companies were providing in exchange for the labour.There was a similar argument around the minimum wage before it was introduced. (Interestingly the $15 minimum wage legislation was passed in Republican Florida so it seems it is no longer perceived as a left/right issue.)There is a similar shortage of Au Pairs which are excluded from the minimal wage and other employment rights.We know that there has been very little enforcement of minimum wage legislation across many sectors even when it is legally applicable.I think if people are going to raise issues with Brexit then perhaps it should be ones that do not rely on exploitation.

Ed Robinson ● 1866d

There are automated fruit picking machines which were being trialled a couple of years ago. I don't know if these are yet in mass productive or how the costs compare with manual labour, or what the issues are with implementing them:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/feb/21/dup-leadership-starts-legal-challenge-against-northern-ireland-protocol
I've no ideas whether anything similar exists for cutting flowers.Some medications companies are adapting quickly but this seems to increase EU jobs at the possible expense of UK ones. I would also imagine that doubling up on manufacturing facilities, although there could be long-term benefits, might cause costs and hence prices to increase short term - not in the interest of coinsumeres anywhere:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/21/sussex-medicines-firm-takes-production-line-abroad-white-van-beat-brexit-banFinally, the Northern Ireland position has still to be resolved. The DUP don't seem to be happy with recent discussions, this has to be of concern. I hope someone has the solution that will satisfy all NI parties ...https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/feb/21/dup-leadership-starts-legal-challenge-against-northern-ireland-protocol
Still, as I noted elsewhere, it's good that the EU is progressing with granting data privacy equivalence which will be good for the UK technology industry - but it will keep us close to EU legislation and the ECHR treaty obligations; is that full sovereignty? 

Michael Ixer ● 1866d

Taylors Bulbs should be investing in automation then as should all these fruit & veg farmers. If they can't adapt they deserve to go out of business. Any business that relies on cheap foreign labour is asking for trouble. Brexit has kicked them into competion in the real world & they can't cope.

Paul Rolink ● 1866d

is it because British education is the best in the world ?!?!?!?

Gregory Edelston ● 1867d

There was a tv programme a few years ago where a farmer took on the challenge of recruiting locals. I think they were picking veg of some sort. Might have been asparagus. The great majority were just plain feckless or just lazy to the point of either being late or just not turning up because either it wasn’t worth it for the money or simply because it was too hard and they’re rather stay in bed or play computer games. The idea you can replace these workers from the locale is somewhat unrealistic it would seem.

Freddie Francis ● 1867d

http://wmsfridaybridgecamp.co.uk/daffodil_pickers_and_packers.htmlI suspect the problem is a home grown one (no pun intended) not a brexit one, lots of young people out of work are fit and strong, why aren't they filling the vacancies, too lazy? don't want to get their hands dirty? manual work beneath them? who knows.when I was 17 I worked on a farm for 10 weeks one summer, hard, physical work and long hours but great fun and I as well paid for a teenager.

Adam Tripp ● 1867d

Yes Andy, that's true as Daffs are already blooming now.

Barbara Stevens ● 1867d

Erm doubt foreign pickers would be coming anyway due to quarantine.

Andy Pike ● 1867d

But we've got our sovereignty and blue passports ...Fortunately, on a positive note, the EU is moving forward with regards to data adequacy:https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_661It would be unreasonable if they didn't as UK law is modelled on the EU GDPR and we are also signatories of the ECHR, which makes the idea of sovereignty a debatable point, particularly as adequacy is a unilateral decision and could be challenged in the ECJ in the future if UK and EU privacy laws diverged. 

Michael Ixer ● 1867d