Forum Topic

Just for comparison

Total Pandemic deaths in the UK reached 116,287 yesterday.In the 1918-19 Influenza Pandemic, the final UK death toll is estimated at 228,000 (although other estimates reach 250,000). Total UK population was 44 million in 1921, and now it is c.68 million.

David Ainsworth ● 1873d7 Comments

Where did you read that ?I'd be interested to hear where those numbers came from and if they had any figures for London or Wandsworth..

Mark Derry ● 1867d

Adam,  I believe I read somewhere that the population of London has dropped by over a million since the start of 2020.  A combination of EU workers heading home and UK citizens taking advantage of flexible working.  I know a number of my younger colleagues moved back home to their Mum and Dads during the pandemic.

Craig Fordham ● 1873d

Following on from Ivonne, we're significantly more advanced medically that in 1918. We sequenced the virus (something unknown in 1918) and developed tests very quickly and then developed a vaccines based on the vrus's RNA in under a year - although that did build on a decade or two of research! In the UK we can identify and track changes in the virus RNA structures almost immediately and track the spread of different variants. That should also allow us to quickly modify the virus. Out main failing is in the tracking, isolation and quarantining of people; I'm not sure it's better than in 1918 other than in places such as New Zealand, South Korea, China, Viernam, Australia ...

Michael Ixer ● 1873d

Yes, the 1918 'flu picked off those who were young and should have been healthy whereas CV-19 mainly affects the elderly and those vulnerable because of other conditions - although one shouldn't be complacent as the young and apparently healthy sometimes succumb to it. There are other factors: in 1918 there were groups of young men in the army living close together in camps which, together with global troop movements, probably helped the spread, and it's possible that after several years of war there may have been fatigue or malnourishment making some vulnerable. 

Michael Ixer ● 1873d

David I'm not sure just comparing numbers makes any sense.Apparently the peak age of mortality was 28 for the 1918 pandemic with those aged 20–40 years being the highest risk group.That is a completely different pattern from this pandemic.

Ed Robinson ● 1873d

I found this graph for the UK population since 43 AD, what I found odd is that I understood that the estimate for Roman Britain was 4m-6m. http://chartsbin.com/view/28kI believe a census is due this year, it will be fascinating to see what affect brexit and covid have had on the demographics.

Adam Tripp ● 1873d

I am not too sure the comparison is valid.The Spanish Influenza pandemic lasted from February 1918 to April 1920. Statistically speaking, using the lower estimate you provide, the percentage of UK population that died because of the Spanish flu was about 0.57%.  By comparison, the number of deaths so far from COVID-19 amounts to 0.17% - and this pandemic is by no means finished.While the population at the beginning of the XX century was lower than now, I am not too sure that the country was as advanced, medically speaking, as it is now.

Ivonne Holliday ● 1873d