Forum Topic

Covid vaccine calculator

I just came across this calculator (https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-u), which takes in factors such as age, health conditions etc to produce an estimate of when you can expect the vaccine. Entering my details, it says that "there are between 503,378 and 4,384,545 people in front of you in the queue for a COVID vaccine across the UK. Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your vaccine between 28/12/2020 and 24/01/2021.The model used seems pretty simplistic: for example, it gives an overall figure for the country as a whole and doesn't take into account any estimate of the availability of the vaccine in the area where you live - and availability, judging from comments people have made in different parts of the country, does seem to vary widely. And I have no idea whether the figures for vaccination rate and percentage take-up are accurate either. So I don't actually think it gives you anything more than the broadest of brushes as an indication: altogether not very impressive.

Richard Carter ● 1928d37 Comments

Good to hear that Elizabeth, I wonder how long for another 5yrs younger than you. I have neighbours done last Saturday week. 80yrs.

Barbara Stevens ● 1904d

All the over 80s in my road were jabbed last week, and I and a friend (75) received the vaccine on Thursday. Friends in Enfield got theirs on Wednesday. The Pfizer vaccine in all cases. I have a date for the second jab, alas not until April.Everyone I've spoken to has been impressed by the operation at the Scout Hut. Efficient and staffed by pleasant people, both those administering the jab, and the young people stewarding, and sanitizing the socially distanced chairs where you have to sit for 15 minutes to make sure you don't collapse!Don't know who organised it, but thanks and well done.

Elizabeth Balsom ● 1904d

Yes, over 300,000 today was pretty impressive!

Richard Carter ● 1905d

The UK Govt has done well by striking out alone rather than sticking with the centralised EU approach.  However we are paying considerably more for the Pfizer vaccine than the rate negotiated by the EU.  Their own slowness seems to be a combination of slow approval procedures and distribution problems across 27 countries.  Not surprised Germany has struck out alone after public opinion was howling that a vaccine developed in Germany was not getting through to any Germans while we were jabbing thousands a day.Further ahead it may start to look a little different.  Firstly there's a huge international fight for future orders from Pfizer who are taking a very hard-nosed line on pricing, as well as deciding on who gets priority deliveries for future orders.  We could yet get muscled out of future vaccine production schedules. But yes, so far so good and we certainly compare very well on vaccination numbers.  Let's not look at casualty numbers though, or other pandemic yardsticks where the UK is not comparing well at all.

Jonathan Callaway ● 1905d

Germany did go it alone on purchasing vaccines outside the EU contracts. This has been a great source of consternation with other member states!Plenty in french press but here is a link in english:https://www.politico.eu/article/germanys-coronavirus-vaccine-side-deal-at-odds-with-legally-binding-eu-pact/

Patricia Poulter ● 1905d

Germany are not happy with that. They have set up their vaccination centres and no (or very little) vaccine. Starting to wish they went alone rather than as 1 of 27. But just one of the advantages of being in the EU I suppose.

Andy Pike ● 1905d

Pfizer are slowing production in Belgium so they can make changes to their manufacturing processes to increase its capacity, so hopefully for the good long term.

Michael Ixer ● 1905d

Yes the EU are having real problems with supplies. There member countries are not af all happy  perhaps they are wishing they went on their own!! As the Oxford vaccine is manufactured in this Country I trust we will have no supply issues.I know a successful outcome of vaccinations in this country will upset those that seemingly look to us to fail at all stages. Looks unlikely on this one.

Andy Pike ● 1905d

Is this going so well because it has NOT been outsourced?I hope I’m wrong (again) that there are emerging supply problems which might slow the programme down. The AstraZeneca vaccine is having manufacturing problems while there is a worldwide scramble for more Pfizer jabs which might push the UK down the queue.

Jonathan Callaway ● 1905d

Try 300,000 a day then!!

Andy Pike ● 1905d

Yep makes perfect sense - let us not fix today's issues there will be a solution in the future. "Jam tomorrow" I believe it is called.Well we will soon passing a whole year of "jam tomorrow" and probably not the last year either.

Ed Robinson ● 1922d

Who do you think is "worrying about their own place in the queue," Catherine? Not me, that's for sure: I was simply trying to describe what is a highly imperfect tool for forecasting. It's a model that relies wholly on variables that are very hard to predict - in fact, they are much more like guesses than predictions, which is why the outputs of the model are unreliable, making it, to all intents and purposes, useless.

Richard Carter ● 1922d

Michael Brown ● 1922d

It's a poor calculator that assumes 1m a week and then calculates 12 months to do 4.8m.Surely allowing 2 doses at 1m a week it will be stceirdt 9.6 weeks from start if rollout of oxford so mid march complete on that cohort.

Andy Pike ● 1924d

All we need now is the oxford vaccine and full steam ahead.

Andy Pike ● 1926d

Well said Frances.In the absence of a zero covid policy and with a failed test, track, isolate system we only have the covid vaccine left as the single tool in our bag.I expect our government to take all possible steps to get the over 90's and then the over 80's vaccinated.I dont particularly care what party colour the government currently is, this is my expectation of our government.If inspections of facilities are needed around the country I expect the inspectors to be ferried by the most efficient means, be it helicopter, private jet or police escort.Getting that vaccine to the most vulnerable should be the top priority. Excuses are just unacceptable!

Ed Robinson ● 1926d

5% of the UK population is over 80 but they account for 50% of deaths from Covid. Getting them vaccinated will make a huge difference, so don't worry too much about your own place in the queue.

Frances Clarke ● 1926d

Not sure Hancock has any role in approving the Oxford vaccine

Andy Pike ● 1927d

Sorry Andy I didn't see that stated on the other thread.So just let down by Hancock then!

Ed Robinson ● 1927d

As said in the other thread they have nit been let down by WBC or anybody the other Boroughs. The mass vaccination centres are not sef to go live across the country until Jan 4th when, hopefully  the oxford vaccine is available deliver en mass.The current vaccine programme is for limited supplies of a particularly special vaccine that requires special storage and handling abilities and needs to be delivered to the arm by those properly trained.The centres have to be approved by NHS the fact some arent yet is not because they failed the test but because they have yet to be inspected.I know folk on here love to bash the tories or the Council and this truth will dissapoint but c'mon fairs fair.

Andy Pike ● 1927d

Jonathan it is very disappointing to see on the other thread that those 16 & 24 years ahead of you have been let down by WBC. What a difference that would have made to their Christmas and New Year.I hope things are sorted out early next year but I suspect summer may be more likely - but as you say you never know.

Ed Robinson ● 1927d

For those of us now over 70 I would be pleasantly surprised to get the jab before Easter. But you never know.

Jonathan Callaway ● 1927d

200,000 a week??  I wouldn't want to put that in the calculator...

Richard Carter ● 1927d

Once the oxford one is approved this figure will increase substantially as it wont need the specific temp and other measures of the current one. Also the Oxford one already has millions of doses manufactured and ready to roll.

Andy Pike ● 1927d

According to the DM vaccinations are around 200,000 a week.

Ed Robinson ● 1927d

Worth pointing out this is one of many out there. None of which are official .

Andy Pike ● 1927d

Tim Spector's work (and that of his team) has been really impressive throughout this year.  He regularly seems to be ahead of both Sage and the government.  Interestingly, today he suggested that infections in Kent peaked last week - great news if so

Craig Fordham ● 1927d

Thank you Richard, did not pick that one up!!!  I managed to complete the calculation and apparently, I will be vaccinated ibn 2022...

Ivonne Holliday ● 1927d

And now there are other symptoms to watch out for:-"Tim Spector, lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Symptom Study app, and Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King’s College London, said, “People need to know all the symptoms and not just focus on the three ‘official’ symptoms that miss over 20 per cent of cases.“Headache, fatigue, diarrhoea, muscle pain, skipping meals and confusion are just some of the other symptoms associated with Covid-19.“If anyone is suffering from any of these over the coming weeks, stay at home, self isolate and get a test.”Headache - SometimesFatigue - Most of the bl%dy timeDiarrhoea - No more than is necessary, fortunately.Muscle pain - Most of the bl%dy timeSkipping meals - Now and then, but, to be honest, I usually make up for it.Confusion - All of the bl%dy time these days.And that's "just some" of the other symptoms!

David Ainsworth ● 1928d

Richard the only positive is no matter what the vaccination rate is, we all automatically progress up the queue as time goes on :)On a serious note - I think I will await the ONS stats on vaccination.

Ed Robinson ● 1928d

At 500,000 a week, I’ll be up in June 2022 😂😂

Craig Fordham ● 1928d

Yes, you can vary the inputs using the  advanced mode, but who knows what the accurate values are? My point really was to bring out that what seemed to be an accurate predictive tool is not one at all.

Richard Carter ● 1928d

Richard you can adjust the vaccination rate by clicking the advance mode and put in a more realistic number.You may want to sit down though :)

Ed Robinson ● 1928d

Ah, my mistake, sorry!  I missed off a 'k' at the end. This should work:https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk

Richard Carter ● 1928d

https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk

Ed Robinson ● 1928d

Richard 1,000,000 a week? Are you sure?That doesn't sound very realistic.

Ed Robinson ● 1928d

Oh, dear!!I tried to open the link you gave and it tells me:Bad news: 404 (Page not found):-( :-( :-(

Ivonne Holliday ● 1928d