Forum Topic

So mind how you go

Daily Mail today:-"Boris Johnson overruled Michael Gove's call for London to be placed under the harshest coronavirus lockdown after lobbying from Tory MPs, it was claimed today.The capital was put in Tier 2 when the allocations were announced yesterday, giving some relief to the battered economy and hospitality industry.However, Matt Hancock made clear it had been a borderline decision, and warned there was a 'lot of work to do' for it to stay in the lower bracket. Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove, regarded as a leading 'Dove' in the top ranks of government, is believed to have pushed for London to be in the harshest bracket at a key meeting on Wednesday. But Mr Johnson - a former mayor of the city - went against his judgement, according to the Telegraph.""A borderline decision", so be safe.

David Ainsworth ● 2173d22 Comments

It should be a decision based on expert medical advice but as always personalities and politics get in the way. Still, I’m glad it’s Tier 2 not 3 as the R rate is less apparently falling in these parts. Can we trust this govt to get a vaccine to us before we all expire from boredom and enforced idleness?

Jonathan Callaway ● 2173d

A work colleague suggested this is part of Gove’s master plan to undermine Boris and force his exit, so he can ride to the rescue?  Surely he’s not that Machiavellian?  As for Tier 2 vs 3, not sure I can see any real difference?  Yes,  in Tier 2 we can mix with other households - but only if it’s outside and only in pubs and restaurants if we order a substantial meal.  Given it will be December, that’s hardly an appealing prospect.  Isn’t it basically an extension to national lockdown?  Sadly, I fear it makes the death of many pubs and restaurants

Craig Fordham ● 2173d

I saw on the news last night Hancock saying there was a pretty good chance we'd be put in tier 3 come the next review on the 16th

Matt Palmer ● 2173d

I don't recall seeing any comments so far here about the government's plans for Christmas. So three households can  meet in the same house over five days; in our case it would mean closely mixing eleven people of three generations, including ourselves and the grandchildren, two of whom are at secondary school and one has already had a case of covid in her class.  Personally, if I were to set out to devise a way to promote most effectively the spread of the virus, this would be it - and all for one Christmas. Absolutely crazy !

Richard Carter ● 2171d

How true Richard.

Caroline Whitehead ● 2171d

Families were always going to get-together over Christmas, so I guess they might as well try to put some controls in.  People are still behaving amazingly well, given this has been going on for so long, but you can see either complacency, fatigue or rebellion has set in.  I’ve noticed that traffic on roads has increased markedly and that adherence to the two-metre rule in supermarkets and out and about has got sloppier.  It would help if the government had ever had a clear strategy  or if there was far greater transparency on data (getting accurate and regular data on the number in hospital is akin to getting stats out of North Korea!)  Also interesting to read that only c.50% of adults definitely intend on getting the vaccine.

Craig Fordham ● 2171d

Meanwhile, in the Sunday Times:-"The army has mobilised an elite “information warfare” unit renowned for assisting operations against al-Qaeda and the Taliban to counter online propaganda against vaccines, as Britain prepares to deliver its first injections within days.The defence cultural specialist unit was launched in Afghanistan in 2010 and belongs to the army’s 77th Brigade. The secretive unit has often worked side-by-side with psychological operations teams."Leaked documents reveal that its soldiers are already monitoring cyberspace for Covid-19 content and analysing how British citizens are being targeted online. It is also gathering evidence of vaccine disinformation from hostile states, including Russia.Next month the 77th Brigade will begin an “uplift” of professional and reserve soldiers to join operations." [Paywall]Last year "an Army spokesperson said: “77 Brigade do not conduct UK operations.”"https://www.thenational.scot/news/18398012.defence-chief-says-77th-brigade-countering-covid-misinformation/Well, this looks like an UK operation.

David Ainsworth ● 2171d

Interesting that this "secretive unit" has its own website https://www.army.mod.uk/who-we-are/formations-divisions-brigades/6th-united-kingdom-division/77-brigade/Secrets aren't what they were; isn't the internet wonderful 🙂 

Michael Ixer ● 2171d

"Secrets aren't what they were".Hide in plain sight. I expect that "Universal Export" would have had a Wikipedia entry as well as their own group website, if they were still in business. Of course, maybe they are.

David Ainsworth ● 2171d

You’re always welcome to stay at home by yourself Richard!  No-one is forcing you to mix with others against your will.Broadly as others here mention there is already likely to be some breaking of the government rules, so stricter conditions would lead to more people disobeying, and it would be too widespread for any enforcement.  Meanwhile colleagues with various sets of elderly relatives are already considering how to minimise the risks whilst not leaving their elderly relatives alone at Christmas, ie being sensible without the need for government dictat.I think a long time ago the government decided one death by COVID was worse than n deaths by other means due to these measures (loneliness, suicide, depression, despair, poverty shortening people’s lives) as they are all problems that are less immediate of course.  If the government were more transparent with the trade offs and impact of their dictates perhaps they would find less dissent from their own mps.  Whilst I’m sure there have been many inappropriate incidents overall most people (and certainly everyone I know) have acted sensibly and in line with the various rules so far.

Mike Warman ● 2171d

Of course no one is forcing anyone to mix with others, but allowing five days for Christmas will encourage too many to indulge in what will be, frankly, rank stupidity.For a more nuanced view, see this (from today's Sunday Times, so behind the paywall):Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents health trusts, said: “Any decision taken now to relax the restrictions in the run-up to Christmas would be premature and full of risk. If the government gets this wrong there’s a real risk of a third surge in Covid cases in January or February, just when winter pressures on the health service are likely to be at their worst.” [Hopson was talking specifically about relaxations before Christmas, but it applies equally to the five days' relaxations.Mr Raab says that he will be telling his children, aged six and eight, not to hug their grandparents this Christmas “because we don’t want to spread the virus”. It came after a member of Sage warned that people should think carefully about whether it is worth the risk of meeting elderly relatives.Lucy Yardley, [health psychology professor at] Southampton University, said that just because we are allowed to socialise with vulnerable people does not mean that doing so is sensible.“Take a step back and think, is it really important for you to share your home for the entire period that’s allowed?” she said. “Because that is very risky to older people who are particularly vulnerable to this infection.”https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-in-retreat-as-tory-revolt-over-covid-lockdown-tiers-rocks-no-10-0xd329jrv

Richard Carter ● 2171d

The government seems to have lost sight of the fact that effective tracing and isolating following testing would seem to be the best way to reduce transmission. It's all very well people being sensible and using common sense but if people with Covid are still in the community it will still spread via places where people meet. Some are anticipating a third wave of infections after Christmas. The primary aim still appears to be to stop hospitals being overwhelmed with hospital admissions from Covid and resulting deaths of all types from others being refused admission. What the government hasn't produced, to my knowledge, is the detailed evidence that we're close to that? 

Michael Ixer ● 2171d

Lets be honest the govt (any govt) is caught between a rock and a hard place. Just look at the variety of opinions in todays papers. Then think if they had not had a christmas break the headlines could have been about scrooges etc etc.In the same way as the TV News stations always drag out someone to interview who has an alternative view to the decision made.Personally I will take the opportunity to visit my son and hold my 4 month old granddaughter . However should there be any outward signs of illness in the meantime that may change.

Andy Pike ● 2171d

Andy. Your decision sounds sensible to me. It's your decision and I'm assuming as the oldest you're probably carrying the highest risk but also sensible with social distancing, hand washing, mask wearing, etc? (Apologies if I've made any wrong assumptions.) I think the mistake that's made is to consider Covid deaths as a linear function. If Covid deaths are x% of the overall cases it's likely until there effective vaccination that x will be reduced by better hospital treatments. However, I'm not aware of treatments that reduce the number of people with Covid from admission to hospital. Given Covid is highly infections and cases rise at an exponential rate (I'll use that term as the government does although strictly speaking in a mathematical sense I'd associate it with the exponent function, e) then hospital admissions could easily become uncontrollable. Once hospital resources are overwhelmed then deaths from other cases - accidents, flu, cancers, suicides, etc - will rise because of the an inability to treat them. So I can see it is nessary to reduce Covid cases but that may need a short term restructuring of the economy to support it so people can isolate or shut businesses, etc without being plunged into poverty or bankrupted, and that may mean taxing those with significantly above average wealth. Alternatively, one might argue, for example, that the one and only advantage of Brexit. is the UK could unilaterally tax the outflow of money to foreign organizations or individuals above a certain amount, or implement an on-line shopping tax? (Just initial suggestions …)

Michael Ixer ● 2171d

Agree.  Andy’s approach seems very sensible and pragmatic.  My Mum, who’s in her 80s would definitely prefer to see her children and grandchildren, some of whom she hasn’t seen all year, and take the risk.  In her words a life without being able to hug your loved ones is no life at all.

Craig Fordham ● 2171d

Agree.

Barbara Stevens ● 2171d

Craig, Andy. I think the other thing to add it's about balancing acute and chronic risk. If one's over sixty there's obviously an escalating (with age) acute risk of death if one catches Covid when meeting one's relatives but then if one postpones it at that age then the chronic risk of death (or debilitating illness) from other causes is also increasing and could occur before seeing them again. I'm conscious of three friends and two colleagues in their sixties but younger than me who have died during the past two years from heart attacks and cancer. So do I want to give up that opportunity to meet friend/relatives at a concert venue or outside in a pub/cafe garden where social distancing is well organised when I can't be sure how many years I've left? (Let's hope the vegan  diet helps!) As a financial adviser said to me when I was discussing how long to defer taking my state pension to increase it's annual income: "That depends on how long you think you're going to live to take advantage of the higher payment …"

Michael Ixer ● 2171d

I'd be more concerned about 2000 people at a soccer match than sitting down for dinner with my son and his wife.Dont get me wrong I'd love to get back to football but I think it's too early and an unnecessary risk at this stage.

Andy Pike ● 2171d

Yes Michael, I put of taking mine for just over a couple of years. I was told by the tax office don't leave it much longer or you will get taxed and I am.

Barbara Stevens ● 2171d

Andy. That would be my initial reaction. But given football matches are outside where transmission risk is lower and I'd image if the social distancing is well managed, particularly on entry, exit and the use of lavatories, then the risk probably isn't that high. I'd say one's risk with family would depend on whether they're working from home (low) but if not on the nature of their job/workplace and how good social distancing there is (or can be) managed? Sorry, if I'm looking at that a bit dispassionately but my only close relative is in the same household and I'm not a football fan! (And F1 can often be better on TV …) But as I've said previously, I'd agree with your decision; and we do expect to see friends outside during the holidays. 

Michael Ixer ● 2171d

Barbara. Deaths and taxes, the only certainties!

Michael Ixer ● 2171d

"Deaths and taxes, the only certainties!"And mother in law joked!Sorry dear we cant risk visiting your mum it is just too risky for her!

Ed Robinson ● 2170d