Forum Topic

What Is The Point Of Lockdowns Now?

The lockdown merry-go-round rumbles on but I question their worth and effectiveness.  Do lockdowns just postpone the inevitable?  The virus will not just disappear if we lockdown for a month now. And then what?  Xmas will be on! Yippee....until Covid cases surge in the New Year and 1000's die, and the Govt panics again.  Then do we have yet another lockdown, and will they go on and on?  What would be the point?The original lockdown March-July did prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed so the strategy was successful at that time.  However when the restrictions were eased and people were encouraged to return to work and eat out to help out etc the number of confirmed infections have continued to rise. Some experts say this is because so many more people are being tested and the confirmed cases are just a reflection of this. Maybe that's true? The ONS yesterday reported "older teenagers and young adults continue to have the highest current rates while rates appear to be steeply increasing among secondary school children." This is no great surprise because the young have largely ignored social distancing rules as they're not bothered about catching the virus.  Teenagers will continue to have illegal raves and uni students will continue to party and get drunk and pass the virus to each other, (makes a change from STDs I suppose).  Both of these groups will then selfishly pass the Covid virus on to their families. Young children are mainly asymptomatic carriers which is obviously not their fault, but they can still pass the virus on to their parents and grandparents. So what is the point of lockdowns?

Sue Hammond ● 2005d25 Comments

Andy my understanding, possibly wrong, was that the Coronavirus Act 2020 is still active and expires 2 years after it was passed.But wise to get parliament approval.

Ed Robinson ● 2004d

Cant start until its approved by Parliament.One of the amendments made to the process after the first lockdown.But also you are right Ed that businesses need to prepare where possible.

Andy Pike ● 2004d

Reading the question differently - some people are calling for the lockdown to start immediately i.e. now!.I do not think that is practical. Businesses and people need time to prepare. How would that even work? Thursday is very short notice. It may be days before we see the detail documentation on what is allowed and not allowed. The devil is always in the detail.I missed the announcement having tuned in on time - well 5pm.But just imagine - restaurant will have deliveries scheduled - some of which will be fresh produce, they will have to try and cancel them.

Ed Robinson ● 2004d

He did and then he said it will be debated and hopefully approved by Parliament on Wednesday.Having spoken to opposition leaders today he knows they will not vote against , after all Starmer had been calling for a lockdown for weeks.

Andy Pike ● 2004d

I assume a Saturday announcement will mean markets are closed too. It will give the markets a bit of notice before opening.

Ed Robinson ● 2004d

We will have to agree to disagree.The language used by the PM tonight was quite definitely not open to debate.He also said he would make a statement to Parliament on Monday.

Ivonne Holliday ● 2004d

Doesn't make a difference one way or other with the leaks from the office. Tonight was a statement of intent subject to approval. How would they know what to debate if nothing was said until Wednesday. Same with any law you give notice, debate, approve or reject.

Andy Pike ● 2004d

Should it not be announced AFTER it has been debated in Parliament then?

Ivonne Holliday ● 2004d

That's why it doesn't start until Thursday as it needs to be debated and approved by Parliament on Wednesdsy, as the PM said during his conference.

Andy Pike ● 2004d

That's why it doesn't start until Thursday as it needs to be debated and approved by Parliament on Wednesdsy, as the PM said during his conference.

Andy Pike ● 2004d

Sue. I agree compliance is an issue. I think a full, blanket lockdown is easier to understand and follow, and monitor and, if needed, police. There seemed to be confusion with the three tiers, even the PM got a question wrong at a press briefing and he makes the rules, or at least approves them. There definitely are people breaking the rules,  some inadvertently others deliberately; yesterday I was on a Zoom call with someone from NE London who said that regularly every Saturday, Sunday and Monday mornings people are dumping large amounts of emoty bottles in the recycling point near is home - he suspects they're the result of illicit large house parties or raves 🙁

Michael Ixer ● 2005d

"Concerns have been raised by senior leaders and clinicians that the Nightingales will be unsuitable for critical care patients, due to difficulties with heating and staffing them, as well as concerns around toilets and ventilation."I wonder what Florence would say?

Ed Robinson ● 2005d

The nightingale hospitals are ready to be used but if you remember when they were built there were no extra staff to run them. Nothing has changed there, therefore the staff will still be under huge pressure.

Matt Palmer ● 2005d

I am not too sure what good a lockdown now would do.  I understand that the government is trying to stop the NHS being overwhelmed - but there are also Nightingale Hospitals waiting to be used....What I object to this possible lockdown is that it has not had Parliamentary scrutiny or discussion.  This is not good at all!

Ivonne Holliday ● 2005d

The overwhelming majority of young people have behaved exceptionally and entirely selflessly for the benefit of the elderly and vulnerable.  We should be proud of them

Craig Fordham ● 2005d

@Clifford"what is being sacrificed are the futures of our children and this needs to stop, in my humble view."Tell that to the teens and 20's who are ignoring social distancing and spreading the virus and causing the lockdowns which are crippling the economy.  They can't see further than their next party or booze binge.  Maybe a dose of the truth would stop them whingeing and blaming the older generation and the Govt for everything.

Sue Hammond ● 2005d

"Do lockdowns just postpone the inevitable? "Yes - death and taxes as they say - the postpone period is called life :)UK outcomes during the first lockdown were poor in terms of lives and the economy when compared to comparable social/economic countries.Having a poor government and a missing opposition means we are now approaching the next lockdown without learning all the lessons that we could have.The UK doesn't have the tools that other countries have used to fight the spread unfortunately.It is interesting how monitoring and preemptive treatment of positive vulnerable patients differs around the globe. Perhaps just monitoring could make a difference?[insert rant about bus windows]Interesting research about modelling the spread of virus indoors from the US. Looked the same as the stuff that came out of Asia months ago but good confirmation.Even if kids were keeping their distance - schools just like restaurants etc would have helped the spread.I think most young people have been great!

Ed Robinson ● 2005d

The Spanish Flu epidemic lasted two years so i suspect sadly we've some way to go.

Lucille Grant ● 2005d

Flu kills around 17,000 people a year in the UKCovid has so far killed 60,000 and that's even with a national lockdown. We're on track for over 80,000 dead in 2020, four times as many deaths from flu.

Matt Palmer ● 2005d

No mentions of the nightingale hospitals which were to take pressure off the main NHS hospitals - maybe its about time to face up to the inevitability of simply having to live with it as we do with the flu and other diseases - what is being sacrificed are the futures of our children and this needs to stop, in my humble view.

Clifford Cowell ● 2005d

Actually I think its a combination of two things.1) Certainly some people aren't complying with the lock down restrictions.2) The restrictions themselves aren't strict enough frankly. Sage said a few weeks ago that leaving pubs/restaurants/non essential businesses open wouldn't be enough to get the R down, and so it has been proven.If the above are all closed then people cant go to them and therefore people comply by default.And yes, I know it's awful for these businesess. :(

Matt Palmer ● 2005d

Yes that makes sense Matt but lockdowns will only work if people are compliant and I don't think that's the case now.

Sue Hammond ● 2005d

Agreed Matt, and my views/comments on hospital saturation are on the other post which started with a criticism of lockdown.

Michael Ixer ● 2005d

It's a really tricky situation Sue and I confess I feel sorry for anyone (including Boris!) who has to make these decisions.I guess the point of a lockdown though is that when the NHS starts to get overwhelmed you have to do something? If we lock down again now then eventually that will bring case numbers back down. Yes they will eventually start to rise again but each one of these lock downs gets a closer to the time when a vaccine is available.

Matt Palmer ● 2005d

PM press conference today at 4pm.  There is quite a revolt against another lockdown so I wonder what has been decided.

Sue Hammond ● 2005d