Forum Topic

National Lockdown Looms

According to The Times tomorrow:Strict curbs in prospect from next week to stop hospitals being overwhelmed.Boris Johnson is considering the imposition of new national lockdown restrictions from next week amid concerns that hospitals across the country are being overwhelmed.The prime minister met Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, and Matt Hancock, the health secretary, to discuss “alarming” new NHS data yesterday.  He is expected to hold a press conference on Monday to announce the new measures, under which everything could be closed except essential shops and “educational settings”, including nurseries, schools and universities. The new restrictions could be introduced on Wednesday and remain in place until December 1.A senior government source said that the measures were under discussion and no final decision had been made.

Sue Hammond ● 1980d22 Comments

"people just spin rubbish""Don’t like the scare mongering of the 4,000 deaths a day the scientists are talking about"I don't think anyone likes it. However, the threat is genuine enough for the Prime Minister to take the whole country into lockdown again. I'm no fan of Boris Johnson or the current incarnation of the Conservative Party - I thought you were Nick?Yet with no knowledge of epidemiology, no comment on the statistics, models or extrapolations thereof, simply what someone's girlfriend has indirectly passed on to you, you think this is just "scare mongering".I tell you what scares me most - it is that each and every time there has been a chance of defeating this virus in the UK, as the have done in Taiwan, as they have done in New Zealand, as they have done in the state of Victoria, that chance is thrown away by a complacent government supported by people who haven't got a clue what they are talking about demanding that "the economy" (ie not the economy really but high risk venues such as pubs and restaurants) must stay open.That is why hospitals are becoming overloaded, that is why we are having another lockdown and that is why it may well last past Christmas.So you could continue to carp from the sidelines about "scare-mongering" or you could get with the programme and support your community - like Boris finally admits you should.

Michael Winstanley ● 1978d

Ed, this isn't my field although I have been involved in forecasting and capacity planning when leading a group  developing MRP II software (and then I was drawing on experts in their fields), and I've used my maths background when studying digitisation and compression in telecommunications. What I've tried to get over in my posts is that the government scientist aren't just looking at absolute, simple numbers but have their own statistical analysis algorithms foirdeveloping  predictions - it's an extremely complex model, and these aren't exact! Their conclusions should be questioned but one needs to get into the detail of their methods rather than (like Mike Yeardon) make generalisations based on information from previous viruses rather than ones based on studies of Covid-19; I was oncedned when some poor programming was found in the modelling software uses by prof Ferguson although I thkjnk others felt it didn't matter much in the overall error bounds.You're right about capacity; I usually try to refer to resources as that encompasses beds, staff, medicines, ventilators, PPE and other equipment, and even food, drink and transport for staff and patients - I did work in NHS Supplies IT dept for a short period! I don't envy Johnson in his task - a flippant journalist and historian studying Churchill who thought his own hour if glory had come leading us out of the EU! Sadly, for him, he's up against an opposition leader who has an analytical mind with an attention for detail and who he (Johnson) has now with his second lockdown admitted was correct in pushing for a 'circuit breaker' - as advised a while ago by SAGE. And, I also agree with you about the need for a robust test, trace and isolate system with local knowledge and resources 'on the ground'.

Michael Ixer ● 1978d

Michael as a lay person I found articles on the k number facinating especially around tracing with limited resources.But capacity must play a big part in any planning and that has always been very uncertain. I.e theorical capacity vs actually capacity. Beds but no staff etc. Also possible future sickness etc of a relatively small number of key people could have an enormous impact.

Ed Robinson ● 1978d

Just to add, I wasn't disputing the low figures your friend was reporting but noting that what the government scientists  are trying to do is predicting future rates based on rate trends and factors like the infamous "R" numer. Not an exact science and not easy. And I'm not sure how well all of the government understand it ...

Michael Ixer ● 1978d

Nick apologies for the late night post lockdown news humour. It was a poor attempt to make fun out of how I see things and wasn't intended to offend.

Ed Robinson ● 1979d

Ha ha no problem Mike, I wasn’t sure who wrote what. Actually looking back at your message it’s quite funny. Anyway, it’s not for me to comment on Covid. I just want everyone to remain as positive as possible. As the good times will be better and we will appreciate things even more once this is over. Lovely sun over Putney today. Make sure we will keep getting fresh air as much as we can and enjoying a better week weather wise.

Nick Gulliford ● 1979d

Sorry, Nick, I was being a little flippant yesterday. To be honest I'm not to enamored with another lockdown but I see it as a being realistic rather than positive or negative. Ivonne raises a good point about regional variations and our immediate location does appear to have fewer cases than some parts of the UK. I think the problem the government has to deal with is that the current tier restrictions seem to be ignored by a significant few (on a couple of recent train journeys out of London although most are obeying the rules there have been at least one group of teenagers not wearing masks) so a lockdown may be the only way to get consistent compliance?

Michael Ixer ● 1979d

Just to confirm. I am married with three children. I have been married for 13 years and with my wife for 20 years! I am 42 years old! I know that rate now in this new era but hey I’m quite old fashioned. I was with a colleague who’s girlfriend works at Charing Cross hospital on the Covid Ward. She probably knows what she is talking about! Anyway there is no point in commenting on anything like this as people just spin rubbish. I know the exact numbers within the 4 immediate hospitals as of last Thursday !  However It would be unfair for me to give them on this forum!! I like to keep positive. Don’t like the scare mongering of the 4,000 deaths a day the scientists are talking about!!!

Nick Gulliford ● 1979d

Thank you Ivonne.There are some several good points you make. I guess the first is that local knowledge is invaluable. It allows us to challenge or at least to check central government policies. If we go back to the first lockdown very little data was being published. The government wasn't being open and that led to mistrust. My fear as mentioned previously was that vulnerable patients were being kept at home and hence not receiving the care that could have possible produced different outcomes.It really is unfortunate that a review was not carried out after the first wave. Additional nurses that were taken on were later dismissed according to the news at the time. As they say no such thing as silly questions.

Ed Robinson ● 1979d

Thank you for the link Ed.I had a quick look and, as Charing X is being discussed here, I checked on the Imperial College Health NHS Trust (which includes the following hospitals: Charing X, Queen Charlotte and Chelsea, Hammersmith, St Mary's and Western Eye).  I am not too sure all of them admit COVID-19 patients, but, according to the statistics provided, at least since October 2020, weekly admissions have been in single digit numbers. Of course, this is just one bit of information as we do not know how long the patients stay in hospital for.Having said this, Nick Gulliford's post was not incorrect as he was referring to one hospital in London, namely Charing X. On the other hand, however critical he was, Michael W was referring to presentation by the UK Chief Medical Officer last night which provided national statistics.  We know that the incidence of COVID-19 is increasing in London but it has not reached the proportions at the beginning of the pandemic and certainly is well below those of the North of England.Ironically, a very close relative of ours is a nurse who lives in SW England. When the pandemic started, the incidence there was very low and continued to be so throughout the first phase.  It was her opinion, and that of her colleagues, that the pandemic had been blown out of proportion.  As far as SW England was concerned, she was correct; but not if looking at COVID-19 national figures. Thank you

Ivonne Holliday ● 1979d

I do note that hospital stats are now being reported in some detail here:https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/I have no idea how accurate they are, I normally just look at ONS data when it comes to UK Covid-19. I shall have to have a proper look tomorrow.

Ed Robinson ● 1979d

Michael that may or may not be relevant it depends if the girlfriend(s) told Nick directly or via one or more colleagues.Wise choice by the way to leave the Delingpod Channel (Dr Mike Yeadon) to Michael W.

Ed Robinson ● 1979d

Ed. I just assumed it was poor punctuation,  typos, or predictive text taking control ... but as they say: assume makes an ass out of u and an ass out of me 🙂 Is there a one to one correspondence between colleagues and girlfriends or are we looking at more complex relationships? (I'm thinking of mathematical ones, of course...)

Michael Ixer ● 1979d

I think we need to start at the beginning and clarify the facts:"my colleagues girlfriends"Nick is this a person with many concurrent intimate female relationships or a person who has many female friends?Sadly my brain got stuck on this first fact.

Ed Robinson ● 1979d

Well, I suspect Nick's friend's girlfriend ( or was it the guy down the chip shop who thought he was Elvis?) is looking at just the daily figure. Nick says the figure is low but increasing. I don't think Nick or whoever it is  has bothered to differentiate it twice to look at the rate at which the rate of admissions is increasing, or looked at the rate at which the seven day rolling average is increasing, which is probably easier otherwise one might has to fit a Taylor/Maclaurin series through the curve of admissions stats. I suspect the government scientists might have done some more detailed analysis over a greater sample of hospitals. But, yes, I'll be honest, I'm jyst guessing that ...

Michael Ixer ● 1979d

I'm really torn here. Do I go by what Nick thinks his colleague thinks his girfriend thinks about the current experience at one local hospital. Or should I go by the slide at page 9 in the UK Chief Medical Officer's presentation tonight on national TV which shows how nationally hospitals are becoming overloaded with Covid patients?https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/931774/Slides_to_accompany_coronavirus_press_conference-_CMO-_31_October_2020.pdfYou know, if Sir Patrick Valance had announced that Harrods were coming to Putney High St, I might have looked to Nick for a 2nd opinion, but on this issue, I think I'll just rely on Sir Patrick's statistics. It's not just that one has a job to do this and the other doesn't, nor even that one knows this stuff and the other doesn't. It's more that one of them has a team behind him checking and double-checking what he is going to say and the other just passes on gossip.

Michael Winstanley ● 1979d

Yes, and you Barbara. xx

Sue Hammond ● 1979d

Hear hear

Victoria Richardson ● 1979d

Nick..  Lovely to have you back

Barbara Shillabeer ● 1979d

I am surpised about the hospital admissions as one of my colleagues girlfriends works at Charing Cross. They are very low there. Within the four immediate nearby hospitals whilst they have grown off a very low base a few weeks ago, they are still very low.

Nick Gulliford ● 1980d

PS - I think the alarming news was the increase in hospital admissions.

Michael Ixer ● 1980d

Breaking news on BBC R4 during  10pm News, I think source was Reuters.

Michael Ixer ● 1980d