Forum Topic

So much for "Global Britain"

This is an interesting graphic that shows in order the world's largest exporters over the last 34 years. As recently as 2016 the UK was the 6th largest exporter, but by 2019 we had fallen to 11th, below even Mexico. I wonder what happened in 2016?https://mobile.twitter.com/FikriCalkin/status/1319715856511893504

Richard Carter ● 2052d14 Comments

Ed. I'd missed this one - rumours of a private equity bid for BT Group ...https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2020/08/bt-reportedly-preparing-to-defend-against-15bn-takeover-attempt.html

Michael Ixer ● 2049d

Ed. Yes, I'm not sure nationalisation of BT would help. Telecoms is an area where deregulation and competition has pushed down prices and (in most cases) improved services. Perhaps Openreach could be spun off as a separate company that's inpedendent from BT? Telecoms is slightly different from the railways as I think the telcos, including BT, owns the coppe and fibre in their networks, and the are a number of other telcos besides BT that own both local supply and long distance fibre, and presumably Kingston Telecoms owns the local loop copper in Hull. Perhaps the government could levy a tax on large organisations - Netflix, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Nintendo, etc - for the traffic they generate on the UK network?

Michael Ixer ● 2049d

Yes Michael - exactly what happened but a lot of the Remain MP's didn't budge when it came to indicative votes in the HoC - so May was not the only blocker.The Labour Parties Broadband idea was interesting although I think it was unnecessary to nationalise BT - unless BT can't meet it's pension commitments which the government guaranteed it would step in and pay when it was privatised.As I understand the government "incentivising providers". All it really needs to do is to retain ownership much like it does with roads and derive income from traffic which would be reinvested.

Ed Robinson ● 2049d

Ed. Mrs May failed to engage with the opposition after she took the reins following the referendum. Corbyn, always Luke warm on the EEC/EU, would probably have supported and assisted with a Norway style deal. Still May charged ahead with the meaningless Brexit  means Brexit  mantra trying toprove to the ERG she was a faster leaver than them and ignored Corbyn. Still, thats all history ... Arhg ... broadband capacityl Most of Putney was not cabled when the TV companies were doing that. If I remember that was partly to do with complaints about damage to trees, poor reparations of pavements and roads, poissible rising costs from those and the CTV companies running short of money - and was it worth it just for additional TV channels? ... And getting from V.92 modems to ADSL was a major step forward at that time. It's interesting, I've been on numerous Zoom meetings during the past six/seven months (mainly one way presentations) with speakers from many locations around the UK, Europe, Russia, US, UAE, ... and the one that failed completely was from a remove location in Scotland. Well, BT do have plans. The UK should have full FTTP just after the end of the decade (not sure everyone believes that, although I think Johnson reckons he wants it by 2025 ...) and the old copper PSTN network was to be replace with VoIP BT 2025 (mmm maybe). I think that may put us behind many Asian countries and quite a few European ones ... I think there are government aspirations and practical realistic possibilities ... If you've time you can draw your own conclusions: https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2020/04/summary-of-full-fibre-build-progress-across-uk-broadband-isps.html https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2020/10/smf-report-warns-2025-gigabit-broadband-target-to-be-missed.html https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2019/04/swapping-to-broadband-voip-from-a-uk-copper-home-phone-line.html

Michael Ixer ● 2049d

... because, the Times reports (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/management-consultancy-firms-reap-the-rewards-of-brexit-bonanza-955g8rxtr - paywall warning), "Management consultants have been awarded £180 million to deliver Brexit as a potential “no-deal” looms and ministers turn increasingly to experts from the private sector."  Furthermore, "The government is also asking management consultants to bid for £3.6 billion of public contracts over the next two years, a sharp increase from £2.3 billion in the present period. The bonanza for consultancy firms comes amid increasing criticism of the coronavirus response in which they have been key players."And "There have been 1,114 consultants from Deloitte alone working on test and trace. Day rates for experts from Boston Consulting Group on testing are as high as £7,000. Whitehall typically pays consultancies based on time worked rather than outcomes or projects completed.  The Cabinet Office has announced £30 million each in Brexit contracts with six top consultancies: McKinsey, Bain, Deloitte, KPMG, Accenture and Pricewaterhousecoopers."So don't worry, some people are certainly doing very well as a result of this mess!

Richard Carter ● 2050d

Yes Michael, I agree with the benefits vs disadvantages and it is interesting how many high profile Brexiteers have secured free movement for themselves.If there was a rally behind a Norway type deal after the referendum then things may have been different. Or even if there was a huge green infrastructure investment programme straight afterwards to prepared for a no deal. Improving goods by rail to make up for time lost in ports for example. Instead time has been squandered by the government I hope the time is not squandered by opposition parties too.Regarding zoom etc it is interesting that countries that have invested heavily in fast broadband have seen some amazing growth. You would think that Putney was still a village with the speeds that are on offer. Government thinking does tend to be a century behind. Still at least the government are not going to waste billions on a new canal :-)

Ed Robinson ● 2051d

Ed. I think what you're describing there is not a one dimensional problem. Even remainers like me would never claim the EU was perfect but feel the benefits of membership outweighed the disadvantages and that by remaining in the EU we could have addressed accountability and corruption issues and pressed for (for example) better pan European animal welfare standards and enhanced privacy and data protection rights built on the GDPR. Many of the other issues are UK only - such as free university education or better workers' rights, or proportional representation - which other EU states have. I don't think Brexit  will help with any of those - and the current government, in my opinion, certainly has no appetite to address these. The other point is that Remainers come from a spectrum of political views so their views on policy will match that with some putting an emphasis on, say,  workers rights and free education while others might see feee movement of labour and goods as their priority. My view is in the global economy Brexit will stunt the UK's growth - imagine if one needed a visa to move from New York to take up a high tech job in San Diego ... doesn't that give US high tech an advantage over the EU/UK now? Unless remote working and Zoom really does break down old practices!

Michael Ixer ● 2051d

My worry is that we are no better off today to tackle a Brexit type issues than we were in 2016.I'm not seeing policies for constitutional reform, electoral reform, education reform, redistribution of wealth, workers rights etc coming from the remain camp.The opinion seems to be that everything was rosy before Brexit - it certainly wasn't.The causes of Brexit need to be addressed. Just wishing the clock back without addressing the issues is - well like the first part of Ground Hog Day :)

Ed Robinson ● 2051d

Brexit  looks like a complete mess. Are Johnson and Give deliberately trying to wreck the UK economy? First financial services jobs migrating to the EU, now a no-deal threatening  aerospace jobs. (And where will Trump be with that US trade deal on the 1st January? In the courts litigating over the US election?)https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54692949

Michael Ixer ● 2052d

Exports fell post Brexit even after the 20% drop in Sterling.  Now why would the financial markets think Brexit would be bad for the economy?

Jonathan Callaway ● 2052d

Brexit was always a cock-up of huge proportions especially so as there was no plan for what would follow in the event of the vote - politicians have much to answer for which, of course they will not.

Clifford Cowell ● 2052d

the figures are in US$, sterling fell 20% after the referendum, it would be more balanced if the chart showed exports per head of population in national currency to show more clearly how countries have performed

Adam Tripp ● 2052d

Interesting how fast the UK dropped down the list after 2016 - perhaps predictable but it was a plummet! Sad, because in the preceding years the UK had held 4th, 5th, 6th position with figures very close to 4th even when it dropped. My prediction before the referendum was if we left wed be negotiating to rejoin within a decade ...

Michael Ixer ● 2052d

Thanks for posting this.  I must admit it was quite a shock to see how quickly exports have fallen since Brexit. There’s been a lot of anecdotal stuff about foreign buyers switching elsewhere but to see it in hard statistics is very sobering.  And we still have full access to the EU, at least until the end of the year. If only somebody could have warned us before the referendum ...My view has long been that Brexit will have to be seen to have failed before anyone accepts it was a wrong move of historic proportions. Seen but also probably felt in a shrinking jobs market.  Then, of course, there will have to be a painful period of renegotiation with the EU followed by decades of catch-up.

Jonathan Callaway ● 2052d