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There was a Grauniad Live event last night on the prospects of a no deal Brexit. Three journos and an academic. They all still believe the odds are slightly in favour of some sort of deal being hammered out in the next six weeks - but that anything short of staying in the single market and customs union will have a negative effect on the economy for maybe up to 10 years. On the future of the UK it was interesting that the Irish journo (Lisa O’Carroll) thought a border poll in NI was at least a decade away. She did point out that the so-called East German rule applies to NI - automatic membership of the EU if unity is voted for.  The issue in her view is that any change to NI’s status will need the consent of Unionists. The East German rule does not apply to Scotland where there is an even stronger desire to stay in the EU.  If they vote for independence they will have to apply to join the EU which means signing up to join the euro and the real prospect of a hard border between England and Scotland. The SNP have yet to address these huge challenges and ironically, in the view of the academic (Anand Menon, Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs and clearly that dreaded creature, an expert!) he sees the UK government deploying pro union arguments that will be the exact opposite of those they deployed in the Brexit debate.The breakup of the UK is a real possibility as an unintended consequence of Brexit, but it may take longer (and be more painful) that some expect.

Jonathan Callaway ● 2035d