Could not resist it....
Ivonne Holliday ● 2057d3 Comments
What I find worrying is that there are reports now that some independent statistical experts did try to warn Ofqual that it didn't work and some other statistics experts weren't willing to get involved because of the need to sign too restrictive NDAs. The more I hear about the process involving the algorithm it seems it was doomed to fail. I can see it would produce the statistical spread of grades without grade inflation that the government and others wanted but it seems blindingly obvious that there's no way an algorithm can predict individuals' grades. Ok, I'm saying that with hindsight but it seems to me it should have been something obvious to any statistician involved in this? I can only assume that the government pressured (bullied?) Ofqual staff to do this? I guess the government has the power to disband or reorganise such quangos (which might be a sufficient threat to ignore one's instincts?) as it's now doing with Public Health England? https://news.sky.com/story/a-levels-exam-regulator-ignored-expert-help-after-statisticians-wouldnt-sign-non-disclosure-agreements-12049289
Michael Ixer ● 2056d
I agree Michael, I think even the chaos theory must be in disarray now. It beggars belief what is happening with the exam results plus, plus, plus... Shameful!
Ivonne Holliday ● 2057d
Just about sums out up. Just heard the BTec results have been pulled! What a shambles. In a way I'm not surprised - I never thought Johnson had what it takes to be PM and all his cabinet are lightweight yes men/women (psoisibly excepting Sunak). It's just so sad for the students and must be difficult for teachers and university staff having to cope with the mess. I know its exceptional circumstances but a good minister would avoided this with less arrogance and better consultation and communications. It doesn't bode well for the end of EU transition ... a reversal for a bigger disaster?
Michael Ixer ● 2057d