Forum Topic

Northern Ireland

Boris - October 2019 - frictionless trade between the mainland and NI will be maintained under my 'oven ready' dealAugust 2020 - 500m quid being spent to cushion business in NI from the increased costs of trading with the mainland.Any Brexiteers brave enough to admit that Boris lied - sorry, "misrepresented the situation"?Sue? Andy? Anyone?

Matt Palmer ● 2069d26 Comments

That's a good point Elizabeth.York would have been an excellent location and rebalance England.

Ed Robinson ● 2067d

Not Farridge Garridge then?  Where I was brung up we kept the car in the garridge.

Jonathan Callaway ● 2067d

I do quite like the nickname for the huge lorry parks being built ready for the totally predicatable chaos come Jan 2nd 2021The Farage garage! (to be said with an American accent)

Matt Palmer ● 2067d

I wonder how things would have worked out if, during the whole devolution thing, Blair had been really imaginative and gone for a proper federation along German lines with England getting its own parliament located in Birmingham or York, similar to what Scotland and N.Ireland now have.

Elizabeth Balsom ● 2067d

I'm not usually a conspiracy theorist, but I can't help a gut feeling that there are things going on behind the scenes that we know nothing about.  Well, there always have been, we all know that, but this whole Brexit/Corona thing has become very weird.  There are so many examples out there on how to manage this situation, but the Govt doesn't seem to be bothered.  Something smells.

Bunny Payne ● 2067d

The only thing I would predict right now is a hard no-deal Brexit. Johnson and his cabinet are all fully committed to a hard Brexit - it was a condition of becoming a candidate in December - and a significant number are quite fervent Brexiteers. Outside the cabinet hardline right wingers such as IDS and Steve Baker are ready to pounce on any backsliding. Indeed they are already complaining that the transition agreement has handed too much initiative to the EU. 2021 was going to be a tough year anyway thanks to Covid but a hard Brexit is going to make things even worse. Those lorry parks near Dover are going to get a lot of use.  Sorry to be so gloomy on a hot Sunday!

Jonathan Callaway ● 2067d

Ed. To be honest I wouldn't like to predict anything at present. The Covid pandemic is going to have a severe effect on global economies. I'm concerned about the US and the way Trump is handling the pandemic - I hope the projections of 300,000 deaths don't materialise but they aren't unrealistic if their pandemic strategy isn't improved. It could have a devastating effect on the US economy, with a significant impact of the world's economy. Fortunately, the US (and I think European) high tech industries seem to be doing well so not all is lost. I suspect the Chinese economy will emerge strong because of the nature of the regime's control there. That isn't necessarily a good thing for freedom and democracy. If the Chinese economy is strong it will be interesting to see what impact their Belt and Road initiative will have on western influence in Africa, Asia, etc - plus the Chinese high tech industry is continuing to expand - what they can't get from the US they'll learn to build themselves. I nearly took a bet out with a Chinese business consultant about four years ago about which nation would be next to put a person on the Moon - but we couldn't do it 'cause we both wanted to bet on China ... it will be an interesting decade; yes, I hope I get to see the end of it! Although as someone at a BAA conference said, when you look at the planning times for space missions one wonders which ones you'll see the science from ...

Michael Ixer ● 2068d

Michael I hope we are both still around if that happens.I had Johnson departing by now and being replaced by Sanuk. I think it will eventually happen but perhaps early next year.If conditions arise where the Conservatives have to replace their leader or abandon hard Brexit, I suspect some sort of  customs agreement will reached and not full EU membership. This would probably get broad support, a practical compromise. Who knows even Northern Ireland eventually found compromise but they did have the great John HumeWill any party be brave or stupid enough to run another referendum that requires a 2/3 majority is the question?

Ed Robinson ● 2068d

Ed. There obviously is a deep devide between leavers and remainers with regard to Brexit . As a remainer, I think Brexit is a horrendous mistake. We have a situation now where we have what's essentially a hard Brexit government. As they have the power then, as I see it, it's up them to convince me I'm wrong. The arrogance, duplicity, and lack of transparency and clarity shown by the current government so far - whether it's management of Covid, Brexit or cohesion of the Union - only convinces me further that Brexit will be a disaster and, if coupled with a Trump style US trade deal, will lower the UK's living standards and indepedence in many ways. Of course if this government proves that standards are increasing in the next couple of years and I can travel freely in Europe at no extra expense or inconvenience then I'll be converted. However,at the moment I believe Brexit will be a disaster so I'm waiting to pick up the pieces and work to rejoining the EU. I'm waiting for the Brexiteers to prove me wrong ...

Michael Ixer ● 2068d

The Brexit and Remain tribal groups have largely remained unchanged. There doesn't seem to be a clear plan how to address this from anyone.The previous Brexit for jobs (soft Brexit) was abandoned by Labour at the last election despite it being popular at the previous election. I think that was a great mistake and scuppered the last serious attempt to reconcile the nation.I fear unfortunately that scandals, inefficiencies and even exposing corruption will have only a small impact on voting intentions.There is little hope for the UK union until the tribalism can be addressed.

Ed Robinson ● 2068d

No need to apologise, Ivonne. The concurrency on this site gets a bit confusing and out of sync sometimes. I thing we've got similar themes in those posts?One thing I forgot to add to my Covid point was that the message from the regional governments seem to be clearer and more consistent than those from Westminster. I believe that Sturgeon and Foster have higher trust ratings that Johnson on Covid (OK, possibly difficult to get lower) and - never thought I'd say this - I've found their communications precise and authoritative. (Listening to Sturgeon this evening she put the errant Aberdeen footballers in their place and yesterday I was thinking it was brave of Foster to tell the Irish they'd have to wait longer before they could go to the pub just to have a drink ...)

Michael Ixer ● 2069d

Apologies Michael, I posted my reply but did not see yours!  And I agree, all three!!!

Ivonne Holliday ● 2069d

Hello Ed and Jonathan, I am not too sure that Brexit was an English thing.  I would agree it was/is a Westminster thing to avoid the EU ATAD rules.  The idea had to be sold successfully and it did not take two/too clever minds to jump on the bandwagon. The Good Friday Agreement was not mentioned much initially, but the drums sounded very loud and clear to the slogans of "gain back control", "take care of our own borders", "we do not want unelected (?) people in Brussels", "we can be great again [sic]" but with no empire — well since the division of India and Pakistan for a start! The fact that the referendum was announced and the date for it was 3 months ahead, really gave you the clue that nobody was prepared for it so, let the best (lying) man win. Incredibly sad but very true.  So, if Scotland goes ahead with another independence vote, good for them!  They did vote to remain by an amazing margin after all and they should defend it.  And if they win the independence vote, we can say, well done Westminster, you succeeded in breaking the union. That we do not know how Covid-19 will pan out, I totally agree.  That we do not know how Brexit will happen, incorrect - Westminster knows very well indeed. The mention of building tax free ports gives us a clue. As does the peerage to the Russian owner of the Evening Standard who just happens to have UK citizenship....  How convenient!!!

Ivonne Holliday ● 2069d

All three!

Jonathan Callaway ● 2069d

All three!

Jane Carter ● 2069d

Brexit was essentially driven by far right English (UKIP and right wing of the Tory party) with a few stragglers from the far left who disliked the the EU because of it originally being an economic union for the benefit of businesses. Cameron jumped into a referendum to stop the Tory party support hemorrhaging to UKIP.  Ireland was obviously going to be in an irreconcilable pozition between Brexit, needing a boundary between the UK and the EU, and the Good Friday Agreement, requiring an open border between the north and south of Ireland. Johnson negotiated the final withdrawal agreement so he either lied, or was extremely negligent and ignorant (take your piuck) in not understanding what he negotiated in terms of there being a need for a order between NI and GB to avoid having one in Ireland. There is some excuse for the government winging it with regard to Covid: the science (and maths) is complex and evolving, and the current government are obviously illiterate with regard to STEM subjects (with the possible exception of Sunak); however, they should have been more open about the uncertainties and not have lost the trust of the public by keeping Cummings in position; that was just sheer arrogance - or panic because they're all so inadequate! That isn't the the same with Brexit - they said how easy and beneficial it all would be so there's no excuse for winging it - again, take your choice: a lie, ignorance or incompetence?

Michael Ixer ● 2069d

Brexit was basically an English phenomenon. The Scots have no choice but to come along for the ride but they didn’t vote for it any more than NI residents did. The Scots are not happy about being dragged out against their wishes. I should know - I’m in Edinburgh at the moment and hear about it all the time. It’s most definitely a factor in the polls showing majority support for independence. The English may not have had the fate of the Union in their minds when they voted for Brexit but it could be the death knell of the UK as we have known it. Sadly I am not sure the English care - a poll of Tory members last year showed they put completing Brexit ahead of preserving the Union.

Jonathan Callaway ● 2069d

Matt I think everyone really knew this already. That is both NI staying in a customs union and Boris not telling the truth (assuming he bothered to find out what the truth was).Brexit was never UK exit, it was just for England, Scotland and Wales and always has been. "We are an island" mentioned so many times during the campaign being a prime example.It's a strange situation that everyone knows but no one will openly say.

Ed Robinson ● 2069d

Let's face it, the Govt is winging it on Brexit and Coronavirus.  But I think, to be fair, nobody knows the outcome of either.... what are they supposed to say,  errr, umm, not sure?

Bunny Payne ● 2069d

It looks like a substantial, continuing system to me for £200 million. Surely, it's got to stop any goods not compliant with EU standards getting from GB to NI and not crossing the UK/EU border in Ireland?https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-boris-johnson-government-to-handle-import-checks-for-northern-ireland-businesses-2020-8

Michael Ixer ● 2069d

You don't know what the eventual process will be like Matt.  When the new arrangements are fully up and running there probably won't be checks, other than the random checks that already take place under the current system.

Sue Hammond ● 2069d

In case you need reminding of his exact words“There’s no question of there being checks on goods going NI/GB or GB/NI,” Johnson said. “The whole of the UK comes out of the EU. Why would we put checks on goods going from NI to GB or GB to NI? It doesn’t make sense.”

Matt Palmer ● 2069d

This money is a one off payment. What will happen when it runs out? Or will we have a united Ireland by then? I gather (if my understanding is correct) that this is towards setting up a system to take the bureaucracy away from Irish businesses that's necessary because of the border that's been created between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK; will the government really have a system in place by the end of this December? After all, we're still waiting for the test and trace app expected in June ...

Michael Ixer ● 2069d

Sue - my point was Boris lied in October.

Matt Palmer ● 2069d

Any change in trading arrangements is bound to increase administration costs during the transition period. Why shouldn't Boris help the businesses affected?  If the Govt didn't step in to help it would be criticised for not doing so!  Sunak has helped 9 million furloughed workers to sit at home and now laze on beaches, I do resent that waste of tax payers' money.

Sue Hammond ● 2069d

I doubt anyone will answer your question.This government is like a dictatorship - and sadly getting away with it. Parliament is disgracefully been set aside. I wonder if that is what everybody understood by "getting back control".So much for the cradle of democracy, don't you think?

Ivonne Holliday ● 2069d