Forum Topic

COVID-19 R rate may have risen above 1 in parts of England, the Government admits

The East of England is at 0.7 – 0.9, London, the Midlands, the North West and the South East at 0.8 – 1.0, and the North East and Yorkshire at 0.7 – 1.0, with the South West having the highest range at 0.8-1.1. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-r-rate-rise-england-a4467796.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0lInZO-lXSnBxrxKOKvuJfDPKUUENCSR4MSenbrUmWyGx2oPsE9W4YrEA#Echobox=1591973258

Ivonne Holliday ● 2129d8 Comments

Is the high rate in the South West related to the problems at the hospital in Weston super Mare?

Elizabeth Balsom ● 2128d

A good question. I thought there were some research tests that were used to estimate R (separate from the diagnostic tests used to track and trace individuals), If the infection rate is going up again then there would be a time lag of a week or two in any hospital admissions. They don't publish error bars for R so it could be a statistical blip in to measurement?

Michael Ixer ● 2129d

Can someone actually explain how they calculate this? 7 day average number of tests down, ONS and Zoe estimated cases down, hospital admissions down : how is R going up? Like I just don’t get? I hear R is 2-3 weeks delayed?

Gabrielle O'Mahoney ● 2129d

The measure to look for is the icu free capacity. Unless it is extremely highI do not think a second lock down will happen.They may advise high risk groups to isolate.If you follow the government's action, not words, then this is the only thing of concern.

Ed Robinson ● 2129d

I agree Michael, I think we must prepare for a 2nd lockdown, sadly.

Ivonne Holliday ● 2129d

Not really surprising. It's been hovering just below one for a little while. Need to see the trend. It might just be a blip  a used by relaxing parts of lockdown and iut will settle down; alternatively, it could be the start of a second wave because people have got complacent and lost trust in the government after the Cummings debacle. Unfortunately, I don't thing the test and trace programme is mature enough yet to monitor it closely and contain new infections. Prepare for a phase 2 lockdown?.  

Michael Ixer ● 2129d

I agree Bunny.  And we continue in isolation for the foreseeable future.  

Ivonne Holliday ● 2129d

Bad news, but I'm not flippin' well surprised!  There's been a very cavalier attitude over the past fortnight.  I'm doing my own isolating no matter what's going on in the rest of the country!

Bunny Payne ● 2129d