Forum Topic

Testing, testing, 1  2, 3

Shameful - UK still way behind Germany.Perhaps if they checked their emails occasionally!Asked why the UK had a target of 25,000 daily tests while Germany was working on around 70,000 a day, the spokesman said there were difficulties in “getting all the equipment they need to conduct these tests at a time when everybody in the world wants them”.https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/uk-ministers-accused-of-overstating-scale-of-coronavirus-testing

Ed Robinson ● 2262d27 Comments

The first step in correcting a mistake is admitting it.We are still well short of the 100,000 a day by the end of the month.Https://www.itv.com/news/2020-04-13/coronavirus-testing-in-uk-not-ramped-up-as-quickly-as-it-should-have-been-government-s-chief-scientific-advisor-admits/

Ed Robinson ● 2247d

It is clear PHE and the Government have been listening, have been learning so now it’s time to give them an opportunity to deliver.

Guy Cameron ● 2253d

Good point Guy, let's stay in doors and ask no questions, a bit like the Chinese model of government!It is now well into April so hardly premature.Making mistakes is human and can be understood but if the UK has lost time by not owning up to and recognising those mistakes then that is unforgivable.Democracies only have better government because of openness, which leads to more scrutiny and corrections of policy and action. So holding government and institutions to account is not running them down it is a vital part of keeping them world class!

Ed Robinson ● 2253d

According to Sky news yesterday Germany has carried out c. 1m tests compared to c. 266k in the uk. It has done so from c. 150 labs via the distributed medical testing model which was already in place.  They also draw on an extensive pharmaceutical and chemical manufacturing sector which we don't have.Part of the new UK testing approach seems to be moving to this distributed model rather than relying on PHE / NHS labs.  This seems to be implementing learning from the German model.Lets give this a chance to deliver rather than premature armchair criticism of our institutions - all of which are working very hard to deliver.  The last thing we need now is people covering their a**** and resorting to bureaucracy rather than taking action.

Guy Cameron ● 2253d

Ed. I think you're right to be concerned. Most of the briefings consists mainly of "padding". The testing targets seem to be aspirations rather than attainable objectives. I hope, what ever they're saying to the public, they're facing the truth in the private meetings behind the scenes ...

Michael Ixer ● 2253d

Michael, I'm concerned about the policy and the progress now. (Very poor briefing yesterday - papers overstated the response)Jonathan the next ONS release date is the 14 April. Let's hope the channel 4 report was an exception. Although other sources indicate that this may not be the case.

Ed Robinson ● 2253d

There was a tragic report on C4 news last night of an NHS nurse of 20 years standing who’d died at home after his family’s calls first to 111 then 999 were not heeded until too late. On the last but one occasion the ambulance showed up but told him he wasn’t ill enough to go to hospital. Did he actually have the virus?  Nobody knows, neither he nor his family were ever tested. It’s appalling and distressing to see these stories.  The NHS is being stretched beyond its limits.

Jonathan Callaway ● 2253d

Ed and others. The government admired yesterday that Germany got it right (even the Daily Mail says so, just to avoid any political bias):https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8197471/Weve-got-lot-learn-Germany-UK-admits-acted-earlier-mass-testing.htmlOne wonders if the UK's testing strategy was really driven by the science being massaged to fit the lack of availability of test materials caused BT the government's initial slothfulness in reacting to the crisis?

Michael Ixer ● 2253d

Exactly Jonathan, Germany is following best practice.The government is looking at hospital admissions to determine the peak but these can be unreliable due to the constraints the emergency services are using to decide who gets admitted.We may see deaths outside hospitals overtake deaths in hospitals if the criteria is too strict.We have to await the ONC next stats.

Ed Robinson ● 2253d

What widespread but targeted testing can do is identify active carriers, isolate them and then contact trace those who’ve had any sort of interaction with them.  Slowly but surely you can start to break the pandemic down into separate clusters and then isolate and treat them. We are a long way off that here but as far as I can tell that is at the heart of the German government strategy.

Jonathan Callaway ● 2253d

Craig, you would follow best practice as shown by evidence and explain clearly why the UK would deviate.If the UK had better outcomes than countries that follow best practice that would be different. We do not!The onus is on the government and the advisors to answer the questions put to them!Head in sand, in all together, ask no questions doesn't lead to good government or decisions.

Ed Robinson ● 2253d

Whilst I agree that all frontline workers showing symptoms should be tested, I don’t think rolling out a big increase in testing is a simple answer.  Given a large number of infected people are assumed to be asymptomatic, who would you test?  OK you could test the whole population,  but what do you do with those who are negative?  Do you test them every day until you get a positive result?  I don’t envy any leader or scientist tasked with navigating us through this.  What I am confident of is that they’re doing their best and working like Trojans - they are all just human beings.  Anyone calling for Johnson, Cummings etc to be tried when this is all over (as is happening on social media) should be forced to stand for public office, so we can see their guaranteed expertise in action.  The easiest job in the world is to be a critic.

Craig Fordham ● 2253d

A week later and no change.No proper answer on why Germany testing and death rate is so much better.There seems to be more transparency in the US.The level of government scrutiny seems insufficient given the measures the government has taken.That's not to say the measures are not necessary but the government needs to be more transparent given the circumstances.It's like a game of national Ludo: We can't move from home until the government throws a six, which wont happen unless they can find the dice!

Ed Robinson ● 2253d

"Politicians know full well that there will be many questions asked once this dies down"Yes but when was the last time we got answers? Someone tell me please? It will be delayed, watered down or hidden under the 50 or 100 year secrecy laws!

Ed Robinson ● 2255d

It's all a very difficult situation which impacts all of us.  But I do get a distinct feeling of damage limitation, as least as strongly as trying to protect the public.Politicians know full well that there will be many questions asked once this dies down, which hopefully it will.  My guess is most of us will get the virus, sooner or later and I suspect the Govt is not being entirely truthful.  Maybe just to prevent too much panic, but who knows ….

Bunny Payne ● 2255d

There is, depending on which paper you read, a blame game developing in Whitehall to shift responsibility for the PPE and testing fiascos - away from ministers and on to civil servants, the PHE, the NHS top management, anyone whose head is above the parapet.  I think I suggested some time ago that the appearance of senior medical and science individuals alongside Johnson might be to act as human shields.  A bit unedifying if there’s any real truth to it.

Jonathan Callaway ● 2255d

The Spectator: According to a strategy paper by the German government, their goal is now 200,000 tests per day. How has Germany managed to test so many compared to others in Europe?https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-germany-has-managed-to-perform-so-many-covid-19-testsOur government has not been on the ball.

Ed Robinson ● 2255d

Don't forget to include in that 1% those that have to work in close proximity with those affected for very very long hours and there is still an inadequate amount of PPE and equipment although the amount is thankfully growing.It is good that there are open source designs for those with 3D printers to help out and create visors and there is other equipment being designed by British businesses to help make up the shortfall.

Philippa Bond ● 2255d

"Are we committed though to track and trace testing of potentially infected people in order to suppress.."Unless public opinion changes the governments minds the answer is no.Several commentators seem to share the opinion that the UK is just going to try and flattern the curve and see what happens next.

Ed Robinson ● 2257d

Be very careful what is under discussion here. The UK is at a testing disadvantage which can be overcome in the next few weeks - we will test front line staff and people infected.Are we committed though to track and trace testing of potentially infected people in order to suppress the virus as they have done in Singapore and South Korea or are we just going to slow down the virus as it spreads through our entire population and kills 1% of us, predominantly the old, auto-immune, cancer, transplant, high blood pressure, heart disease patients  etc? Average remaining life of a CV-19 victim has been assessed at 15 years, so don't believe some of the hype. This is the important question.

Michael Winstanley ● 2257d

Succeed at testing and surely we'd then be in the position of getting the NHS staff tested and sending them to work without any, enough or adequate PPE.  To have food breaks and loo breaks they either have to work shorter hours or wear nappies and not eat.  Having breaks when wearing so much protective gear must be taking risks.  12 or 14 hour shifts anyone?

Philippa Bond ● 2260d

I agree Ed - a widespread testing programme should be a priority.I’d be fairly sure over the incompetence issue and complacency.  Even if they thought unlikely a month or two ago they should have spent a little money ordering supplies as it was clear there would be a rush.I suspect we will end up following but at a cost for the delay both to the nhs and wider economy as nhs staff stay home unnecessarily and the lockdown lasts longer

Mike Warman ● 2260d

I recommend reading Andrew Neil's tweets on this.A journalist that does follow ups - not many of those at the BBC!Either the government is completely incompetent to provide the testing or they do not want to test, or possibly both!

Ed Robinson ● 2261d

FAR more than us, before we moan we should think about upping our tax..

Bunny Payne ● 2262d

And how much tax and NI does the average German worker pay, what are the social costs per employee to German firms?

Allen Bracchi ● 2262d

Pretty damn good at hosting crooked money launderers and off-shore tax avoidance schemes: to adopt a popular phrase, Britain Leads The World on those...

Richard Carter ● 2262d

We are doubtless self-sufficient in luxury developments, but somehow not in vital medical supplies.

David Ainsworth ● 2262d