Forum Topic

Latest MRP Poll Result

General election: Conservatives set for majority with 359 seats http://news.sky.com/story/general-election-conservatives-set-for-majority-with-359-seats-poll-11871956The Conservatives are set to win 359 seats according to a new poll, giving Boris Johnson a majority of 68The MRP poll for The Times also puts Labour on 211 seats, a loss of more than 40 MPs. In the last parliament, they had 262 seats.The polling method is seen as authoritative because it predicted a hung parliament was likely in 2017 - and was proved correct.

Sue Hammond ● 2540d10 Comments

It's inevitable Boris will win by a clear size majority as this election is all about Brexit and holding parliament accountable.Also the dinosaur Corbyn is not going down well with the public and the anti-democratic Lib Dems are not going down well on the doorstep.Even many Remainers don't agree with cancelling Brexit without a further vote so whoever is advising Swinson on policy is making a huge error of judgement.With all the negative press surrounding Boris it just goes to show how weak the opposition is. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tories take Putney as well.

Paul Game ● 2540d

This poll doesn’t take into account (the mainly young) people who haven’t voted before. Also, ‘Taking into account the margins of error, our model puts the number of Conservative seats at between 328 and 385, meaning that while we can be confident that the Conservatives would currently get a majority, it could range from a modest one to a landslide.’Vote. Don’t vote conservative. Stop Brexit. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/yougov-mrp-conservatives-359-labour-211-snp-43-ld-

Clare Noeken ● 2540d

We have no idea  how the new first time voters will affect the outcome, no matter what polls state. But I suspect they are more likely to go Labour/ibDem/Green than Conservative. That won't stop the Cons  from winning overall but it could stop a landslide and provide unexpected results in some constituencies.

Lucille Grant ● 2540d

The predicted result for Putney  is:Conservatives 38.16%Labour 34.44Lib Dem 23.50Green 3.90https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mrp-election-poll-boris-johnson-heads-for-big-majority-qrqsq9f7r

Richard Carter ● 2540d

I see that the Labour strategy is changing in recognising the Conservatives rather than LibDems as a greater threat. Corbyn seems to have been presenting himself as a "facilitator" to bridge the divide between leavers and remainers which seems to have detracted from the main Labour issues of strengthening the NHS, reducing the dire poverty caused by austerity, stopping the social care system from collapse, and prioritising climate and environmental issues. I agree it's amazing that people are gullible in believing what Johnson says given his record of dishonesty and disingenuous behaviour. Still, I guess people hear what they want to believe rather than critically evaluating and analysing the reality - that's  probably so many fall victim to internet frauds! And why I've been criticised for being too analytical on this forum. Still, there's two weeks left, maybe people will see sense and Johnson will be rumbled?

Michael Ixer ● 2540d

Actual MRP figures for Putneyhttps://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/#uk-elections-constituency-search-anchorLooking at the individual YouGov stats for Putney it appears it's still far from certain.Yes, the estimate is as they put it "leaning Conservative" However, they give 3 sets of figures and on their chart there is plenty of overlap so Remainers still can have hope that Tactical Voting will work. Conservative 31% low 38% estimate  46% highLabour      27      34            42LibDem      17      23            32Green        1      4            7To get a better understanding of how wide the variation in Putney is, look at the data for neighbouring Richmond Park. That's far clearer.

Adrian Pearce ● 2540d

Michael unfortunately for you, your views are out of touch with the majority of the general public in the UK, but I agree many on this forum probably share your views on Corbyn and Brexit.Corbyn wants to make enemies with our friends and wants to make friends with our enemies.He has let the anti-semitism fester in his party under his leadership and yet again on the Andrew Neil interview he failed to apologise.The General public know he will probably bankrupt the country and bring the country to its knees financially, hence the distrust and hence his unpopularity.Considering the distrust in Boris this is the weakest opposition I've seen for many years as they will get no-where near Boris at the upcoming election.Corbyn will be left with no choice but to resign after this election result.

Paul Game ● 2540d

Paul. Sadly, I may be out of sync with popular thinking but that doesn't necessarily mean I'm wrong and, if it happens, that doesn't mean Brexit won't turnout to be a complete disaster and we'll then be knocking on the EU door to rejoin within a decade: then we'll be Schengen and the Euro as well 😶 The problem Johnson will have is, if he wins and exits the EU, in 2020 Trump will be busy trying to get reelected so a US-UK trade deal won't be a top priority, and should he lose the Democrats won't see it as a high priority compared, say, to China. 

Michael Ixer ● 2540d

I've no doubt Brexit will bring some short term complications and challenges for this country, but I believe a Jeremy Corbyn government would be much more damaging than Brexit could ever be.

Paul Game ● 2540d

Hi Clare. Well at least (this time) you resisted the urge to point out that a lot of elderly voters will have died since the last GE, so kudos for that. However I do recognise that age has a big impact on the voting demographic. I agree that the very recent surge of registrations are likely to be the 16-20 year olds and many of them will be gullible enough to believe in Corbyn's freebies, so will probably vote for him.However I think a larger number of this group will vote LibDem to try and cancel Brexit so 'their futures won't be taken away from them'.🙄 Some might even be swayed by the current climate change fervour and could vote Green, Labour or LibDem because all parties are pushing this in their manifestos. According to Greenpeace fact-deck the 3 main parties are polling very closely on this issue. I believe the young will be the most capricious group of all voters, so who knows which way they will vote on the day? If Corbyn bribes them all with the iPhone 11 Pro Max he'll nail it lol. We must not disregard the voters who are now in the middle bracket 25-40 and may have also voted for Corbyn in 2017.  Many of them might now have serious financial responsibilities i.e. children, mortgages, high rents etc and will recognise the folly of his magic money tree  policies and could not vote Labour this time. These voters are very difficult to judge but I am guessing their votes will be mainly split between LibDem and Conservative. Finally the oldies who have always voted Tory and have been so disobliging to have not died since 2017, will still vote Tory.Such a mixed bag of permutations and the most interesting GE in my lifetime, I can hardly wait!Brexit - Bring It On!

Sue Hammond ● 2540d