Forum Topic

The great mystery of Brexit

According to Ipsos Mori, who carry out monthly surveys of the issues that most concern people, the EU was of very little concern to people until early 2016, when talk of a referendum began in earnest. Until then, the percentage citing European issues as of concern remained consistently below 5% of the population — but then shot up until it was over 50% last year (at the same time, immigration, which had been at around 20%, went down to below 10%): see chart below.  The mystery is, why did what had been, for at least the previous 5 years, a complete non-issue, rise to become so high? The underlying issues which led to the vote for Leave in the referendum, and which all experts realise had been simmering for many years, did not suddenly worsen in 2016. So, can anyone explain the reasons for this change? There was no coup, no sudden takeover of our institutions by the EU, indeed, no substantive change in our relationship with it, and I'd really like to understand what has changed in that period.

Richard Carter ● 2658d25 Comments

Even though it’s not shown in your chart I think this a combination of the long term damage of the credit crunch - with real wages still below pre-crunch levels - and the long term drip drip drip effect of the right wing anti-EU press. The spike came after the rise of Farage’s UKIP panicked the Tories into promising a referendum. Suddenly it went to the top of the political agenda and we know what happened next. I suppose the obvious other question is what triggered the rise of Farage and UKIP, the white English nationalist populists previously derided even by right wing Tories as fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists (To quote Cameron).

Jonathan Callaway ● 2658d

The view from Scotland by Ian McConnell: Brexiters more baffling than Flat Earthers as Cabinet views hit pound. See https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/markets_economy/17810735.ian-mcconnell-brexiters-baffling-flat-earthers-cabinet-views-hit-pound/

Jonathan Callaway ● 2658d

I think it's highly likely that few people believed that we would ever have a chance to vote on this issue, so of course people assigned a very low priority to something they knew they would never have a chance to influence or control. When UKIP came along with a glimmer of hope of a referendum, it started to focus peoples minds.

Adam Tripp ● 2658d

I think Adam Tripp has it right. Discontent with the EU programmes of "Ever-Closer Union" was powerfully in evidence at the time of the Lisbon Treaty back in 2011[?] when Cameron was forced to offer a referendum, which he reneged on using the excuse that "everyone else has ratified". Mrs May's deal effectively kept us under the control of the EU without any (apparent) say in their decision-making.

Peter Duffy ● 2658d

It became an issue because it became an issue (with the referendum). It's like all those guests on 'celebrity' TV shows - you never see them before or afterwards, they are only 'famous' for being famous. The tone now is not about Europe at all really, it's about a (manufactured) rift between electors and elected.

Malcolm Grimston ● 2658d

I agree with you Jonathan.The financial crisis of 2018 (which by the way originated in the US and not in the EU) took its tremendous toll everywhere not just the UK.  The globalization of the financial world became very evident indeed.  London eventually started to prosper but not the rest of the country.  The northern powerhouse proposed by Osborne, which I agreed with, never materialized, sadly.Coupled with the horrible effects of austerity came the news of the horrors of the war in Syria and all the refugees.  As far as I am concerned, the refugees and asylum seekers were purposely directed towards Europe.  We saw on our TV screens the enormous amount of people that were attempting to get to Europe - and not all of them were from war torn areas.  Neither were many malnourished, dirty or exhausted.  Everybody here was saying they were all coming to the UK (where else?) when in fact they were heading for Nordic countries and Germany.People were angry with austerity and poverty.  I think this was the perfect breeding ground to direct that discontent against Europe.  And the opportunists prevailed.  Farage is the perfect example and his famous poster is evidence of this.The other problem is that many people did not know or wish to understand how the EU worked and why. So, all the problems in the UK were all blamed on the EU.  And they continue to be (the kipper from the Isle of Man?).  Put together a perceived threat and lack of knowledge - wilful, accidental, convenient or otherwise, the result is  the mess we are in today.And very worryingly indeed is the divide -and hate- that exists in the UK today as a consequence of the result of the referendum.  Desperately sad.

Ivonne Holliday ● 2658d

This isn't your usual style Ivonne. Where are all your !!!!! and ??????. 😸

Sue Hammond ● 2658d

Yvonne you are totally wrong.  Divide and hate was not the result of the referendum..  The undemocratic hypercritical remainers who try not to accept the result are, and they have no idea how much they are despised for their actions, because theirs is the only correct view as they are intellectually superior.

Barbara Shillabeer ● 2658d

Barbara, reign it in  please. You have  just written a divide and rule post - being nasty is no way to solve this crisis  that affects us all. People who voted remain are far from hypocritical - nobody voted for No Deal. We were promised the best deal for Britain and leavers have been led up the garden path completely. As for democracy it is utterly UNdemocratic for our system to allow a tiny percentage of British voters to elect our PM. If you can't see that then you are blind, sorry.I'm in Cornwall atm (outside the Putney bubble) and have met Swedish, Belgian and Welsh people. All think we English are totally mad. The Welsh couple have voted Labour all their lives and refuse to vote for them while Corbyn remains leader. As for Boris they think he is a (bad) joke.

Lucille Grant ● 2657d

BS writes: "Yvonne you are totally wrong.  Divide and hate was not the result of the referendum..  The undemocratic hypercritical remainers who try not to accept the result are, and they have no idea how much they are despised for their actions, because theirs is the only correct view as they are intellectually superior."Your post is totally insulting to those who voted remain. Emotive name-calling should have no part in the debate and surely has no place on this forum.

Alexander MacLeod ● 2657d

@ Alexander pot and kettle comes to mind following your post to Sue Hammond on 2/8/19 21:50"SH: "Next they will probably say Leavers were too thick to understand it."Precisely!"No emotive name-calling there then.

Robert Wheeler ● 2657d

@LucilleBarbara is not a nasty person, but perhaps you are for saying she is blind just because she doesn't agree with you and other Remainers. FYI Leavers didn't vote for a Deal and they didn't vote for No Deal, we just voted to Leave. How we leave is now under discussion.

Sue Hammond ● 2657d

*How we leave is now under discussion*It's been under discussion for over three years Sue and I reiterate: no-one, whether a leaver or remainer, voted for No Deal. You voted to leave without the foggiest idea of what leave entailed.

Lucille Grant ● 2657d

Hello Barbara,The divide and hate, if you care to cast your mind back to 2016, started when the referendum was announced and not with the result of the referendum.  You may wish to recall the press reports on people shouting at foreigners "Go home" and calling Remainers unpatriotic if not traitors.But above all, Barbara, you may hate or despise me and that is your problem.  I do not hate you or despise people who support Leave, I disagree with them and this is a totally different kettle of fish.  And by the way, my name is spelt with an I, not a Y. Thank you.

Ivonne Holliday ● 2657d

Hello Sue,At last we can agree on something!  "Leavers didn't vote for a Deal and they didn't vote for No Deal, we just voted to Leave. How we leave is now under discussion."And that is the crux of the matter which is something we seem to agree on.  Excellent!!So the Leave vote won the referendum.  That was the what reply.  The how became more complicated.  The Withdrawal Agreement was rejected, Parliament voted no on a no-deal (which is now being disregarded by the current government). Should the country not vote now on whether it wishes a deal or no-deal? In my view, this would help matters no end. Thank you.

Ivonne Holliday ● 2657d

@Robert 10.57Ignore it Robert, I do. Attention seekers hate being ignored. 😸

Sue Hammond ● 2657d

"Ignore it Robert, I do. Attention seekers hate being ignored."So is that an example of ignoring it?

David Ainsworth ● 2657d

"The Welsh couple have voted Labour all their lives and refuse to vote for them while Corbyn remains leader. As for Boris they think he is a (bad) joke."And yet they are supporting the Joker, it seems.

David Ainsworth ● 2657d

I was talking to Robert.🙄

Sue Hammond ● 2657d

This is an open forum Sue. If you want to talk to Robert without anyone commenting I suggest a private message.

Lucille Grant ● 2657d

“Manufactured rift”?  How so?

Jonathan Callaway ● 2657d

Robert Wheeler: You are on the wrong track. That so many leavers didn't know the implications of what they were voting for 3 years ago is now widely accepted, even by leavers. As for the kettle, to suggest that someone is wrong is not being personal and is certainly not an insult. It is an opinion resting on verifiable fact -  which is what I thought this forum is supposed to be about.

Alexander MacLeod ● 2657d

@LucilleI was replying to Robert's post, it wasn't a private message. You should learn what the difference is, and I don't need any advice from you on how to use a public forum.

Sue Hammond ● 2657d

"I was replying to Robert's post, it wasn't a private message."And I was responding to your post, which was a public message, as you say.

David Ainsworth ● 2657d

"It became an issue because it became an issue"Eh? I don't get this point at all: you might just as well argue that Newton, Einstein et al were wasting their time because gravity is what it is.But getting back to the main point of the graph (and sorry for not responding before but I've been away from the computer), one possible explanation is in the original FT article which I took the graph from (https://amp.ft.com/content/0750969a-ab57-373e-90a0-c5ef1e9b0292 - paywall). He suggests that it's possible that both concern about the EU and concern about immigration reflected the same underlying concern. On that basis you might be able to add the figures for each to produce an overall figure.I'm not convinced of that, and anyway there are two objections to this approach: (1) that there may well be an overlap but that you can't simply add the two figures because they may reflect people with both concerns, and (2) I can't do it anyway because I can't access the original figures from Ipsos Mori. the actual figures. So the overall mystery remains.PS: The sneerers who moan about Brexit threads are perfectly free to either ignore them or to put up some actual arguments in favour of Brexit and, specifically, of a no-deal Brexit. But they don't, or can't: it's become an item of faith for some here which cannot be questioned.

Richard Carter ● 2656d