Forum Topic

Where is the money coming from?

Has Boris found the elusive money tree? If so, please could he tell us where it is?https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-in-300m-bid-to-shore-up-the-union-8s8mh3c85https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/29/boris-johnson-says-hell-spend-but-who-will-payhttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7294389/Every-home-Britain-leaflet-prepare-No-Deal-Brexit.html (especially this waste of £10 million on a PR exercise)Meanwhile in a  pro Boris newspaperhttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/07/28/no-deal-exit-would-leave-uk-farmers-defenceless/

Lucille Grant ● 2662d37 Comments

Email him and ask: boris.johnson.mp@parliament.uk

Elizabeth Balsom ● 2662d

Have done Elizabeth.Will keep you posted should he reply.

Lucille Grant ● 2662d

I hope it isn't a repeat of the impracticable garden bridge, the unusable water cannon, the new Routemaster bus that wasn't "fit for purposes" (sorry JRM) all of which wasted Londoners' money - and Crossrail still has to be delivered in Lindon. I hope were not going to end up paying for lots of abandoned feasibility studies and projects running way over budget ...

Michael Ixer ● 2662d

you missed out the cable car and 'orbit' thing in the Olympic park, two other great Boris japes that are losing money.

Matt Palmer ● 2662d

Matt. Yes, I forgot those! Makes one wonder if Johnson and Trump went to the same business school: dream up a vanity project and let someone else pick up the bill or receivership ... I have to say I went to a wedding at the Orbit and it was quite a good venue - great views:https://flic.kr/p/KfpQay

Michael Ixer ● 2662d

May's magic money tree.

Clifford Cowell ● 2662d

This morning I emailed to ask how much further sterling  will sllide, and what will be the impact on GDP. We won't get replies, but at least we might bung up his inbox.

Elizabeth Balsom ● 2662d

I think you mean Boris's Magic Money Tree. May has gone and is forgotten already.

Lucille Grant ● 2662d

I think you mean Boris's Magic Money Tree. May has gone and is forgotten already.

Lucille Grant ● 2662d

Yes. Remember what the last Boris did to a currency after dissolving a union and restructuring an economy. Will this Boris create inflation and send the pound the same way as the rouble while the British oligarchs gain in the same way the Russian ones did? If you're close to retirement and have a money purchase pension scheme seek some financial advice: the pension may be mainly or all in cash as that's normally considered prudent but if the current political chaos causes the pound to tank in October it could take a while to recover, if ever. However, all circumstances vary so expert advice might be sensible. 

Michael Ixer ● 2662d

A very good question.  The magic money tree will be dead long before they even try to fulfil any of these promises.A hard Brexit will cost the economy many billions over many years and all the optimistic talk to the contrary won't change that.  Some of the gloomsters and doomsters might just be right, perish the thought.

Jonathan Callaway ● 2661d

Jonathan - gloomsters and doomsters? Surely you mean the realists ... Nick

Nicholas Evans ● 2661d

Hello Lucille,Where is the money coming from?I suspect Boris Johnson is playing with the fund Hammond built up in case of a no-deal Brexit.He is bribing everybody into a no-deal Brexit.  I think that is his stamps as a PM.

Ivonne Holliday ● 2661d

And people will keep forgetting the doubters.

David Ainsworth ● 2661d

genuine question for all the no-deal doomsters: What are the no-deal issues that cant be resolved in a reasonable time-frame?

Adam Tripp ● 2660d

Free trade deals

Ivonne Holliday ● 2660d

We produce 20 million lambs a year and 9 million of them are exported to the EU. With a no deal brexit there will be a 45% import tariff on the lambs.Cue the smell of slaughtered and burning lambs plus a shed load of sheep farmers going out of business.

Matt Palmer ● 2660d

trade deals typically take 7 to 10 years, so far we have deals encompassing about 40 countries with others in the pipeline so imho this falls into a reasonable time-frame.

Adam Tripp ● 2660d

that's about 1/3 of a lamb per year per UK resident, surely they can be sold to UK consumers? come on guys you can do better than that :)

Adam Tripp ● 2660d

As a veggie, near vegan, I and a lot of other people who are part of this rising trend aren't ever going to buy lamb, British or otherwise. Perhaps it's time the farmers reviewed their business model anyway? However, any changes will take time; given their tight margins and cash flows if the UK crashes out on Halloween their businesses will be wrecked. Global businesses, such as car manufacturers will be alright. They'll just swap production elsewhere and cover the transfer costs by taking advantage of cost reductions from other factorsk

Michael Ixer ● 2660d

Michael, I agree that there's little possibility of British farmers gaining business here in the UK with the  veggie/vegan trend now.But why should they have to 'review their business model' when there is a market for them in the EU? It's like telling the miners  to 'get another  job' in years gone past. And we all know what happened to Northern mining communities.Incidentally my Welsh son-in-law told me last week that many Welsh miners did get employment after the mines were closed, thanks to the EU investing in Wales. It's no wonder BJ was booed in Cardiff yesterday.

Lucille Grant ● 2660d

Firstly, no-one was talking about 'no deal' until recently.  The referendum talked about 'the easiest deal in history' etc, but we are where we are.  Here are some of the immediate things that would happen in the event of 'no deal', with links at the bottom.Out of Euratom: would remove the guarantee of consistent and timely access to radioisotopes, potentially resulting in delays in diagnosis and cancelled operations for patients.Reciprocal healthcare: access to reciprocal healthcare arrangements for UK citizens and residents within the EU, and EU citizens and residents within the UK, would end. This would lead to significant disruption to those individuals’ healthcare arrangements, an increase in costs of insurance, and uncertainty regarding accessing healthcare abroad. Moreover, the NHS would face a drastic increase in demand for services, which could dramatically increase its costs and place greater pressure on doctors and clinical staff.Food shopping: a significant percentage of the food purchased by UK consumers is at risk of disruption in a no-deal Brexit scenario. 62% of all fresh food is imported – primarily from the EU. 46% of imported fresh food arrives in Britain from Spain, while 22% of imported fresh food comes from the Netherlands. Indeed, 50% of all food consumed in Britain is imported, with 32% arriving from the EU.Prescription drugs: Getting medicines to pharmacies is a complex process.  If European supply chains are disrupted, there could be shortages.EUs Internal Energy Market: The UK would be vulnerable to gas supply shortages and price hikes after Brexit.Hard border in Ireland: The Good Friday Agreement is predicated on both Northern Ireland and the Republic being members of the EU.  A ‘no deal’ Brexit would be in contravention of this treaty.  Not exactly an amazing start to ‘Global Britain’._______________Euratom: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/134202/bma-briefing-euratom-and-brexit.pdfhttps://www.hsj.co.uk/policy-and-regulation/some-cancer-treatment-may-be-delayed-post-brexit/7024457.articleReciprocal healthcare: https://www.bma.org.uk/-/media/files/pdfs/collective%20voice/influence/europe/bma-brexit-briefing-reciprocal-healthcare.pdf?la=enhttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-47213212https://www.kidneycareuk.org/news-and-campaigns/impact-brexit/Food shopping: https://uk.kantar.com/public-opinion/politics/2019/how-will-brexit-affect-the-uk-high-street/https://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/eu-energy-environment-subcommittee/news-parliament-2017/brexit-food-prices-report-publish/Prescription drugs: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/31/prescription-drug-brexit-pharmacy-supply-chains-shortageshttps://diabetestimes.co.uk/diabetes-charity-warns-a-no-deal-brexit-could-put-lives-at-risk/Internal energy market: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48788636Hard border in Ireland: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-theresa-may-northern-ireland-customs-union-a8234766.html

Clare Noeken ● 2660d

all very interesting, but if these issues are already known about, surely with money and resources they can be resolved in a reasonable time-frame? next.

Adam Tripp ● 2660d

Were just covering old ground here, going back to 2016 as to why it is a bad idea for the UK to leave the EU. One of my main reasons ten was the difficulty of leaving the EU without breaching the Good Friday Agreement. Well, I think I was right on that: there's still not an agreed, workable solution. Of course thge Tory party has compounded the problem by their incompetent management of the process over the past three years. A no deal exit will cause chaos. Obviously one can buy one's way out of the problem; where's the magic money tree? Seems reasonable to me that all those who voted to leave and only those who voted to leave pay for it!

Michael Ixer ● 2660d

Besides the other reasons Clare has detailed the Good Friday Agreement was a major reason for my voting, and still supporting, Remain. Civil War between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland should be avoided at all costs. Adam, you are  being flippant if you believe that money solves the problems we face as a result of No Deal. I do wonder how many people who originally voted Leave want No Deal after being promised a deal. The hardliners among Leavers obviously don't care about the repercussions, it's just leave, period.

Lucille Grant ● 2660d

Adam, I’d like to expand a little on Ivonne’s very succinct reply to the question about the no deal issues - free trade deals. Trade deals take years even with the EU with whom we currently have 100% regulatory alignment. The quicker we move away from that (eg adopting US agricultural standards incl opening doors to GM) the more difficult it will get. Tariff barriers between us and EU cause immediate problems to numerous sectors. In summary it’s the difference between years and immediate and how we bridge that gap. There are very few countries we can’t export to already and we currently benefit from nearly 40 trade deals the EU have struck around the world. Not realistic to assume we can replicate them as bilaterals given our relative lack of economic firepower.  Not even Canada and Australia look like they will cut us any slack. Sectors most affected by a no deal exit: auto, aerospace, pharmaceutical, retail esp just-in-time supermarket supply chains, farming and fishing also export widely to EU. Most economists think a hard Brexit will tip us into recession. A further collapse in the £ will inflate import costs without boosting exports anything like enough to compensate. Many exports eg auto have imported components so savings minimal. See lack of effect on exports of £ going from 1.50 to 1.25 never mind the real risk of substantial further falls. Don’t forget we run massive trade deficits with most countries (the protectionist USA currently excepted). Hard Brexit will condemn us to years of economic underperformance with no guarantees we will ever be able to compensate by boosting exports elsewhere. JRM estimates 50 years and his investment management firm was quietly shifted its base to Dublin while most of the money is invested outside the UK already. All of this will be compounded by the damage we are doing to bilateral relationships with our immediate neighbours. Any residual goodwill will evaporate if we inflict a hard Brexit on them, especially Ireland. A country, incidentally, enjoying the full support of both the EU and the US on the crucial matter of the Irish border. A hard Brexit will hit NI the hardest and is putting wind in the sails of Sinn Fein and their aim to reunite Ireland. A no deal Brexit will breach the terms of the Good Friday Agreement something the US Congress has already given as a reason to block a Free Trade deal with the UK. So, we risk the economy, the Union and good relations with our neighbours contrary to all accepted geopolitical imperatives. Any upsides??

Jonathan Callaway ● 2660d

Hi Lucille, I am not being flippant, I am very concerned about the consequences of leaving without a deal because TM's government was always half-hearted about preparing for a no-deal, I would rather the UK stay in the EU than totally screw up leaving. However, if the average man in the street can see the potential problems then the government must also see them. Find them, fix them, move on.

Adam Tripp ● 2660d

"Not realistic to assume we can replicate them as bilaterals given our relative lack of economic firepower.  Not even Canada and Australia look like they will cut us any slack."bi-lateral MRA agreed with Australia in March 2019. bi-lateral with Canada was due to go live 1st July but has been delayed

Adam Tripp ● 2660d

Apologies Adam - your comment came over to me as flippant (e.g. move on) Glad we agree that staying is better than a screwed up leave.Not sure the average man in the street does see the potential problems - most are completely hacked off by the whole debacle. All the issues mentioned by Clare and Jonathan are obvious for the government to see but they don't appear to want/be able to take the correct action. Simply revoke Article 50. Leaving the EU is not in the best interests of the British people.The Tories seem terrified of the Brexit Party (this is how Brexit began - Cameron & Co were worried about UKIP taking votes away from the Tories) and with  people like Steve Bannon and Aaron  Banks supporting Farage perhaps they are right to fear further loss of voters should a General Election take place.

Lucille Grant ● 2660d

I agree with you Lucille.By the way, my very succinct reply (Free trade agreements) was in response to Adam's "genuine question for all the no-deal doomsters: What are the no-deal issues that cant be resolved in a reasonable time-frame?".  Trade agreements cannot be resolved in a reasonable time-frame as we are talking between 5 to 10 years.  I would call this long-term.  The trade agreements signed so far are incredibly short of the trade requirements in the UK.  What happened to the "easiest deal in history?"One question to all please. Parliament has already voted no to a no-deal.  Is that vote going to be disregarded?  Thank you.

Ivonne Holliday ● 2660d

Aussie deal is not yet in the bag. They want better access for their agricultural exports. Trade deal with Canada paused - by Canada while they wait and see what we do on import tariffs. In both cases the issue is how much if any tariff protection we give to our own farmers. In both cases it’s our farmers v theirs.

Jonathan Callaway ● 2660d

from the government's websiteSummary of the agreementThe UK-Australia MRA contains the conditions under which each country will accept conformity assessment results from the other. It maintains the effects of the EU-Australia agreement in a bilateral context.

Adam Tripp ● 2660d

And a US trade deal is not just down to Trump. It has to be ratified by Congress, I seem to remember there's  a strong Irish lobby group in the US?https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/31/brexit-mess-with-good-friday-and-well-block-uk-trade-deal-us-politicians-warn

Michael Ixer ● 2660d

From this it looks like the UK-Australia trade deal isn't actually done and dusted yet?

Michael Ixer ● 2660d

From this it looks like the UK-Australia trade deal isn't done and dusted? https://www.politico.eu/article/australia-wants-post-brexit-trade-deal-within-months-or-even-weeks/

Michael Ixer ● 2660d

it's my understanding that MRAs and a new trade deal are different. the MRA allows the UK to continue trading AS NORMAL with Australia, a new trade deal is just that, a new deal.

Adam Tripp ● 2660d

Trade deals with far away countries, money and resources will not always bring solutions. What about insulin, for example? It can’t be stockpiled, has a short shelf-live, and has to be temperature controlled. A trade deal with anyone apart from our immediate geographical neighbours wouldn’t help. Produce our own? I guess, but how long would that take to get running, and who would want to when any certifications would only be valid in the small UK market. The best deal is the one we already have. Stop Brexit and all that. https://www.diabetes.org.uk/about_us/news/insulin-brexit

Clare Noeken ● 2660d