Forum Topic

Withdrawal Agreement Explained

If you have time on your hands and like detail, the European Commission has put out a pack of 60 slides explaining the Withdrawal Agreement:https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/the_withdrawal_agreement_explained.pdfI expect to see many paper copies on the laps of MPs in Parliament during the next 'meaningful vote' debate!

James Elder ● 2830d16 Comments

Many thanks. I'm working my way through it slowly - I have significant sight loss.You might be amused by the article on Politico website today comparing the present situation to the French Revolution.

Katrina Black ● 2830d

Thanks Katrina - it's always nice to know that someone has found something I posted helpful. I shall look out for the Politico article.

James Elder ● 2830d

James, thanks for posting.

Michael Ixer ● 2830d

Thank you for posting this. i found it particularly enlightening on a couple of areas.

Katrina Black ● 2829d

Interesting but flawed from the start because the EU Commission insisted upon a withdrawal agreement before anything else. There is no trade agreement which is what concerns most businesses. We will still be locked in for years.Incidentally, I have been trying to get a copy of the build up of the £39 Billion Mrs May agreed to. My MP did not answer my requests which led me to post a request to the Department for exiting the EU through a Freedom of Information Request back in December. The only response from them was that they are delaying responding whilst they consider if it is in the public interest to do so. Their arrogance is astounding!On the Parliament TV channel, Daniel Kawczynski, Conservative MP for Shrewsbury and Atcham, recounted a recent telephone conversation with the Attorney General in which he asked how much of the proposed £39 Billion settlement with the EU was required legally. The answer was about £8 Billion. Has Mrs May and her federalist "negotiator", Olly Robbins taken us all for a ride? I think so.

Roland Willis Gilmore ● 2825d

Honda's Swindon plant under threat of closure with 3,500 jobs at riskHonda is expected to announce the closure of its Swindon factory that employs about 3,500 people, according to reports.The Japanese car maker could confirm the demise of the plant, which produces some 100,000 Civic models a year, as soon as Tuesday morning.The closure was first reported by Sky News.Not exactly what we were promised, is it?

Richard Carter ● 2823d

If only a real Brexiteer had taken over when Cameron fled. They would have managed to get us unicorns AND rainbows.

David Ainsworth ● 2823d

It struck me today that a Brexit film club could offer more insights into our PM and government’s otherwise inexplicable behaviour than any amount of academic or political analysis.  In true Brexit spirit I suggest starting with with a classic British-themed film - Bridge on the River Kwai, focusing on the  Alec Guinness character Lt Col Nicholson - obsessively focused on a task despite the damage and the wider destructive ramifications.  It’s a great film and certainly speaks to our times.  Any other suggestions?

Ruth Pates ● 2822d

Any film with The Three Stooges - or Laurel and Hardy: "Another fine mess you've got us into !"

Richard Carter ● 2822d

Meanwhile away from planet remoan....https://www.autocar.co.uk/opinion/industry/opinion-why-honda-shutting-its-swindon-factoryI note that they are also ceasing production in turkey which is not subject to Brexit but is subject to the main issues (collapsing diesel sales, new trade agreement signed between the Eu and japan)Meanwhile Toyota has just started production of their new Corolla in the U.K. .....https://www.am-online.com/news/car-manufacturer-news/2019/01/14/toyota-starts-uk-production-of-new-corollaThe Toyota is a hybrid and so is not affected by the issues affecting diesels so is likely to have a more stable future.  Couldn’t find this in the guardian, doesn’t fit the narrative of course!  Still I’m sure you’ll be pleased in this sign of confidence from a foreign investor.Looking at another major industry where we promised catastrophe, ie the finance sector in headlines here (independent for a change from the guardian) - over 200k job losses threatened....https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-london-city-jobs-losses-lse-boss-warning-uk-eu-a7519396.htmlUpdated to this https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/investment-banks-radically-scaling-back-estimates-brexit-job-losses-094803896.html?guccounter=1Or more recently city am reporting only 2000 jobs expected to be transferred....http://www.cityam.com/272748/fewer-city-jobs-expected-move-due-brexit-despite-deepeningAnd likely even fewer as access is now maintained even in the event of no deal or Brexit as it’s known to supporters, eg clearing arrangements to continue (George Osborne must have regretted having to publish this)https://www.standard.co.uk/business/city-relief-as-eu-gives-nodeal-green-light-for-clearing-houses-a4069421.htmlAnd of course Citibank following Goldman Sachs in buying their London office...http://www.cityam.com/273357/citigroup-closes-12bn-purchase-canary-wharf-headquartersAnd finally from guido reporting only 2000 job  losses expected but continental fund management groups considering a move to London which could Vip create jobs here ....https://order-order.com/2019/02/15/eu-investors-considering-moves-uk-brexit/I’m not saying that there isn’t uncertainty, although much of this is down to Theresa may’s Brexit betrayal from a brexiteer perspective or however she is viewed from a remainer one, that will lead to turbulence, but for every doom and gloom story there are counterbalancing ones.The U.K.s economy has performed probably around average for European economies since the vote and inconveniently picked up 800k Rather than losing 500k ones as we were warned.  This whilst the ECB has been printing vast quantities of euros while the BoE has not been - without this the eurozone is likely to have underperformed considerablyJust to put a little balance in as ever #despitebrexit

Mike Warman ● 2822d

Found the Corolla story in the Guardian for you Mike. Interestingly, the only other paper I can see it in based on a Google search is The Independent:https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/11/uk-car-industry-twin-concerns-brexit-global-upheaval

James Elder ● 2821d

"Vice" is worth seeing.

Caroline Whitehead ● 2821d

Mike, I genuinely fail to understand this "betrayal" accusation about TM.  The exit deal is not a great one - we agree to be bound by most EU rules but have no say any more in how they are set - but her efforts to compromise does deserve more serious comment.Although botched, the exit deal is an attempt to mitigate the damage Brexit will cause to our economy (see all those government reports, never mind the ever louder cries from business, Pharma, farming, academia etc) while meeting the binary outcome of the referendum.  Brexiteers who refuse to accept any compromise will do far more damage than this deal if they get the no-deal exit they appear to crave.No serious economist has taken the view that there are any net benefits to Brexit in any form it takes, so where does betrayal fit into this?  Surely Brexiteers want the best for this country, just like Remainers?

Jonathan Callaway ● 2821d

Hi Jonathan a reasonable question.My reasons are that the withdrawal arrangement seems to be about ceding control rather than regaining it.  Noticeably in the promise to follow swathes of EU regulation with no input, and the move to tie us to a customs arrangement that will be the customs union in effect.  Thus following rulings of the ecj and being in the customs union with no representation.  As soon as she had her chequers summit if not before we could see it wasn’t something that would be supported by many people who voted Brexit. Whilst I did vote Brexit and occasionally represent that strand of thought here, to my mind staying in the EU is a better position than May’s proposals (I’m sure on that limited element we can agree), although I would like to see a Brexit moving towards being independent and having a free trade deal with them (like I suspect you my opinions have hardened here - initially I signed the petition for a 2nd vote and would have liked a renegotiation, but we have not gone down that path so I’m left saying first choice “hard “ Brexit, 2nd choice remain, 3rd choice May’s proposals.Regarding the damage to the economy taken as read by the remain faction, can I ask if these were the same serious economists and lobby groups who said that it would (1) be an economic disaster if we didn’t join the euro and (2) cause an immediate recession just as a result of a leave vote before we had actually left?My issue with them on this is that they seem to build their models to support their views (confirmation bias) so coupled with them being wrong on the subject of the EU twice in the above cases on this subject I take any assertion they make with a very large pinch of salt.  They may be the economists who cried wolf and are correct this time, but I haven’t seen a lot to back up that case.The more I reflect I think that the way there was no referendum on either the Maastricht treaty (not a time when I was interested in politics, I was in my 20s), and the Lisbon treaty has not helped - these steps taken by politicians without public consent have I think built up resentment and it’s coming out now.

Mike Warman ● 2821d

Probably not the same economists and I do seem to remember there was not much support in the City for the UK joining the euro. And I also remember the old one about there being three opinions for every two economists. And only 3 out of every 2 economists can count.  More seriously I don’t buy the argument that they’ve all got it wrong because some (not all) got in wrong in the past. I do buy the ever louder warnings from the business world and I do buy the slow but inexorable undermining effect of our imminent separation from the EU. I think the Japanese situation is particularly telling. They’ve just signed a FTA with the EU but they’re clearly not in a rush to sign one with us. And our USP was being the gateway to Europe for the US as well as Japan.  Not any more of course. Foreign investment won’t dry up but long term we’re undermining the rationale for much of it. Finally, where’s the real upside?  Years down the track we might have our own FTA with the EU but that won’t come easy either.

Jonathan Callaway ● 2821d

How about 12 Angry Men with Jonathan Calloway or Dominic Grieve in the Henry Fonda role?

Ruth Pates ● 2820d